Hurricane Central 2011

[Localonthe8s]

Hopefully this thing makes landfall on Texas, they desperately need some rain after the drought.

[toxictwister00]

2PM UPDATE - 100% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING AT THE CURRENT MOMENT.

I might be jumping the gun, but I'll go ahead and say we will have TD #4 or Tropical Storm Don by the 5pm advisory.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[toxictwister00]

Something else to monitor...

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20
MPH.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Mr. Rainman]

Glad you brought that system up: it's been showing some good convection and radar showed some pretty obvious rotation with it...we'll see what NHC says at 2 AM, but I think this little thing could be Emily within a week.

EDIT: It is worth point out that if Emily does form by...let's say Saturday, which my contact and I believe is a reasonable date for it to form into a depression or storm...then we will have had 4 named systems in July - a fairly rare feat - and we will be almost 30 days ahead of the 2010 pace. Tropical Storm Earl last year formed on August 25th.

[toxictwister00]

Glad you brought that system up: it's been showing some good convection and radar showed some pretty obvious rotation with it...we'll see what NHC says at 2 AM, but I think this little thing could be Emily within a week.

EDIT: It is worth point out that if Emily does form by...let's say Saturday, which my contact and I believe is a reasonable date for it to form into a depression or storm...then we will have had 4 named systems in July - a fairly rare feat - and we will be almost 30 days ahead of the 2010 pace. Tropical Storm Earl last year formed on August 25th.

We'll also be only 1 storm behind the historic 2005 hurricane season where there was 5 storms in July if this occurs.

EDIT: Now it's up to 30% - CODE ORANGE!

 

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Also looking at models such as the European, it would suggest that this may be something for the East Coast to watch out for.

[Trevor]

Invest 91 is definitely one to watch. Look at this intensity model! (132 hours = 5 days, which would be Tuesday).



Computer models only have it around Guadeloupe by then, so it will have tons of time to strengthen. We're talking a Category 1 by then!

I'm gonna jump the gun here and predict landfall around Wilmington, NC.

[Localonthe8s]

Cool, I hope Emily forms! We desperately need the rain ad well, but certainly not the wind damage or storm surges

[Mr. Rainman]

It's still a little to far out, but the models take 91L into the Carribean and curve it towards the East Coast, where it would make a beeline for N Florida/Georgia/Southern South Carolina. We'll have to see if the models see it curving away or if we could have a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast.

Part of my gut tells me this storm could be the modern-day Hugo, for some reason O_O.

[Eric]

I seem to notice some kind of hurricane bloodlust in this forum... predicting that every storm or potential storm will end up becoming much stronger than it actually is/will be.

[phw115wvwx]

I seem to notice some kind of hurricane bloodlust in this forum... predicting that every storm or potential storm will end up becoming much stronger than it actually is/will be.

That's why you all see me being a little upset lately in these threads.  I wish some people would look at the overall environment and the storm's structure before jumping into some wild conclusions.  Many systems never become what you think they will.  I'm trying to teach some valuable tips on forecasting here as a lot wish to do it in their futures.

[Eric]

Frankly, I think the only time it would even be appropriate to "wish" for an extremely strong tropical cyclone would be if it remained entirely in the middle of the ocean, away from land... but then we'd be getting into debates over whether it should or should not be named.  <sigh>

It's a very good point - though.  Professionalism requires looking at the data and using one's experience, not giving into desires.

[Mr. Rainman]

That's a good point, and I'm sorta guilty of this bloodlust. I will point out, though, that looking at the track and intensity models, my thoughts of intensification and track are not based off of one lone model. The majority of the intensity models do agree in intensification to at least Cat 1 hurricane strength, although the time when it does so is variable, and over half the track models point to a gradual turn to the NW towards the Southeast.

The prediction of location of landfall, I'll admit, is probably nearly impossible to predict at the moment. We'll have to wait and see.

EDIT: Latest model runs agree even more on a track north of Cuba towards the Southeast.

[toxictwister00]

I seem to notice some kind of hurricane bloodlust in this forum... predicting that every storm or potential storm will end up becoming much stronger than it actually is/will be.

It's not being bloodlust if more than one model is showing the possibility of a strong hurricane possibly affecting the east coast.

[toxictwister00]

These are analog tracks of hurricanes that have formed or were on the same track as Invest 91L. I noticed Hurricane David from 1979 is on there, that was the last hurricane to strike Savannah,GA.

[Mr. Rainman]

Looking at this a bit further, there's something we all forgot to take into account here: there's a ridge up north that may have an effect on this system as it pushes west. By what I understand...it may force this system to curve away from the United States with no impact...or, if the system continues on a more westerly track than the models suggest, bypass the ridge altogether and continue moving towards the Gulf. We'll see.

Now looking at this, landfall on the United States is now in quite a bit of doubt (in addition to the fact that this thing is still at least a week out from impact). I still agree with the models at the moment, impacting the Caribbean before curving north. Whether it curves north severely or gradually (much like Earl did, which scraped the Outer Banks), is all dependent on that ridge I mentioned.

EDIT: Regarding intensity, other than some moderate wind shear in the storms anticipated path in the next 24 hours, I'm not seeing models detect much shear in the storms path. Ocean temperatures are more than suitable for intensification as well. I'm fairly confident that this system will become at least a hurricane before it impacts any land. How intense it gets, I don't know.