November 26, 2024, 07:35:36 PM

Author Topic: Hurricane Central 2010  (Read 15559 times)

Offline TWCToday

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #60 on: September 21, 2010, 10:00:36 AM »
Although in fantasyland, Tampa, it could happen on October 5, 2010 with a possible Cat 3/4 hurricane. :fear:
Thats 95L if it ever develops. I believe the GFS is full of BS
« Last Edit: September 21, 2010, 10:02:28 AM by Martin »

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #61 on: September 21, 2010, 09:26:55 PM »
Although in fantasyland, Tampa, it could happen on October 5, 2010 with a possible Cat 3/4 hurricane. :fear:

Thats 95L if it ever develops. I believe the GFS is full of BS


I don't think that's true, GFS has been doing a good job at sniffing out storms in the long range, it's just the track and intensity that's usually BS.  :P Also 18z run still is showing a FL hit near Tampa, but weaker around 975mb







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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #62 on: September 21, 2010, 09:58:32 PM »
Just a quick update on the hurricane season, for September 21st.

Hurricane Igor has become post-tropical, according to the National Hurricane Center. Even then, it is packing winds of 80 mph as moves towards Greenland, NNE at 39 mph. Wind speeds are expected to be hurricane force throughout the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Lisa is slightly strenghtening west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving N at 2 mph. Sustained wind speeds are 45 mph, and are expected to increase to hurricane strength within the next 36 to 48 hours. Lisa should continue tracking north until it hits what I can only guess is the ITCZ, at which point it will track steadely westward. Although not a threat to the U.S. at the moment, this system should be continously monitored.

And finally, Tropical Depression Georgette is still impacted Baja California, with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph. The storm is still tracking due north at 10 mph. Arizona may get some well-needed rain from this system. I haven't heard any reports from Baja Califonia yet. Have any of you guys?

Finally, there is a disturbance in the caribbean that deserves some serious attention. A group of slightly organized thunderstorms are slowly moving west-northwestward and have been given a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. If it does form, we can welcome Tropical Storm Matthew to the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

So far this year, we have had 12 named storms, 6 of which have become hurricanes, 5 of which have attained major hurricane status at some point in their lifespans. Percentage wise, this means 83% of all hurricanes this year have attained major status.  If I am wrong, please let me know.

I'll try to post an update sometime Thursday, if it is okay with the administrators.
Tiddlywinks.

Offline TWCToday

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #63 on: September 25, 2010, 02:54:38 PM »
AFD MLB Florida

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
LIFT IT NORTH ACROSS CUBA MID TO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO EASTERN
U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IS REGENERATION OF TC MATTHEW OR A SEPARATE SYSTEM (NICOLE?).
SYSTEMS CAN BE SLOWER COMING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN THAN MODELS
EXPECT SO HPC BRINGS THIS CYCLONE ONLY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE... AT THAT TIME...GFS HAS IT JUST OFF
THE SW FL COAST AND THE ECMWF IS JUST OFF THE SE FL COAST...BOTH
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THIS FEATURE SINCE IT MAY NOT EXIST YET SO CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST.

Offline TWCToday

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #64 on: September 26, 2010, 01:42:41 PM »
Recon
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.

Offline Eric

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #65 on: November 05, 2010, 03:52:28 PM »
What do you think... will Tomas be the last named storm in the Atlantic this year?
« Last Edit: November 06, 2010, 08:45:27 PM by phw115wvwx »

Offline Localonthe8s

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #66 on: November 05, 2010, 03:57:13 PM »
How did I know someone was bound to make this topic? :P
« Last Edit: November 06, 2010, 08:45:40 PM by phw115wvwx »

Offline Mike

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #67 on: November 05, 2010, 04:37:43 PM »
I'll guess no. Remember T.S. Zeta in late December-early January 2005/2006? Another storm may or may not happen but it's been a busy year.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2010, 08:45:51 PM by phw115wvwx »

phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #68 on: November 05, 2010, 06:05:03 PM »
I think there will be one more before it's over.  Everyone seems to forget that November 30 is the end of the season, and that date has been broken several times.  For the Atlantic during 1851-present, at least one tropical storm has existed in every month of the year, and at least one hurricane has existed in every month except April.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2010, 08:46:01 PM by phw115wvwx »

Offline TWCToday

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #69 on: November 06, 2010, 01:59:19 AM »
This would have been more appropriate in the general tropical discussion thread.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2010, 08:46:12 PM by phw115wvwx »

Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #70 on: November 06, 2010, 06:39:49 PM »
This would have been more appropriate in the general tropical discussion thread.

But now it's confusing because there's a poll in the thread. :blink: :wacko:
« Last Edit: November 06, 2010, 08:46:23 PM by phw115wvwx »

phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #71 on: November 06, 2010, 08:47:48 PM »
This would have been more appropriate in the general tropical discussion thread.
But now it's confusing because there's a poll in the thread. :blink: :wacko:
I've removed the poll and changed the subject titles so that everything is now fully merged.  Anyone can continue the discussion about if this season is finally over here.

Offline Eric

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #72 on: November 06, 2010, 09:16:47 PM »
This would have been more appropriate in the general tropical discussion thread.
But now it's confusing because there's a poll in the thread. :blink: :wacko:
I've removed the poll and changed the subject titles so that everything is now fully merged.  Anyone can continue the discussion about if this season is finally over here.

And the purpose of this exercise was...?  If I'm not meant to make polls, then please just tell me.  I made a poll, it got moved, people didn't like the move, and now it's gone.  I'm entitled to be a little unhappy.

phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #73 on: November 06, 2010, 10:33:41 PM »
And the purpose of this exercise was...?  If I'm not meant to make polls, then please just tell me.  I made a poll, it got moved, people didn't like the move, and now it's gone.  I'm entitled to be a little unhappy.
You're welcome to do polls in their own topics.  Unfortunately, Martin thought your topic didn't really belong by itself.  Once your topic got merged into this general thread, the poll became out of place and confused other members.  Sorry about the issues. :hmm:  I'm going to talk to Martin about figuring out what to do here.

Offline TWCToday

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Re: Hurricane Central 2010
« Reply #74 on: November 06, 2010, 10:46:13 PM »
Oh dear. I just thought it would have fit in the general discussion better. I mean you could make a topic for every storm about "Will X storm be the last? " I didn't  mean to upset anyone.