Hurricane Central 2010

[WeatherWitness]

Well, I know that people really don't want hurricanes, and this is a pretty stupid wish, but I really hope the season starts getting active now and we see some strong hurricanes soon. It's really fun to watch where they are going to go, and even though TWC will have a huge fit over any hurricane of any strength, I'm getting a little tired of these small, short-lasting storms during a "hurricane season that is supposed to be as active as 2005." Wouldn't that really be something if these predictions were totally off. But I know we are now just reaching the "peak" of hurricane season, so hopefully we'll get some activity soon!

Thanks for providing the models, Tavores...they look really interesting.

[toxictwister00]

Well, I know that people really don't want hurricanes, and this is a pretty stupid wish, but I really hope the season starts getting active now and we see some strong hurricanes soon. It's really fun to watch where they are going to go, and even though TWC will have a huge fit over any hurricane of any strength, I'm getting a little tired of these small, short-lasting storms during a "hurricane season that is supposed to be as active as 2005." Wouldn't that really be something if these predictions were totally off. But I know we are now just reaching the "peak" of hurricane season, so hopefully we'll get some activity soon!

Thanks for providing the models, Tavores...they look really interesting.

You're welcome and I agree, I don't want any of those things either. I just want something to form so there can be something to track worthwhile. Also the 18z run of that model I posted has a completely different track (which I knew was gonna be the case this far out anyway) has the same hurricane only stronger at 974mb IIRC would be major hurricane strength scrapping by New England.

[bergone]

Things starting to ramp up...finally. Danielle and now potentially Earl in play.

[TWCToday]

GFS is exploding

[Charismatic Applesauce]

GFS is exploding

What's GFS?

[gt1racerlHDl]

It's a type of hurricane model

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

[phw115wvwx]

What's GFS?

It stands for Global Forecast System, and it's one of the most useful numerical weather prediction models out there.

It's a type of hurricane model

No, it was actually designed to be a mid-latitude synoptic-scale model.  It wasn't originally meant for the tropics or polar regions, but they expanded it to cover the globe.  You have to be a little wary when using it in the tropics as it doesn't have all the physics packages put in specifically for there.

[bergone]

GFS is usually most useful for tracking noreasters/severe weather events.

[TWCToday]

No, it was actually designed to be a mid-latitude synoptic-scale model.  It wasn't originally meant for the tropics or polar regions, but they expanded it to cover the globe.  You have to be a little wary when using it in the tropics as it doesn't have all the physics packages put in specifically for there.

Its a crappy model for the tropics but when you start getting a number of large storms on its runs, its a sign things are improving for tropical development. If you ever need a laugh look at the GFS past 100hr or so

[phw115wvwx]

The 2010 Atlantic season may seem like a dud to most people in the United States, but it's officially an above normal season already despite that we still have over two months to go.  We've had 11 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes to this point, which is exactly at the normal climatology values.  We're only supposed to have 2 major hurricanes in a normal season, but we've already had 5 so far.  What's really impressive is that 4 of those 5 major hurricanes reached Category 4 intensity.  That's not a ratio you see too often.

[Eric]

I think the very slow start combined with the promise of a busy year is what got people confused.  Even I was becoming rather sceptical.  However, the past month or so has been absolutely madcap in the Atlantic, and there's yet another wave coming off the coast of Africa...

[WeatherWitness]

The "activity" level of Hurricane Season seems so hard to describe. Some people might say "Oh yeah, I told you so...the 2010 Hurricane Season has been very active" because there have been so many hurricanes while others state that since no major hurricanes have made a direct hit on the US, the season hasn't been "active."

What I think we can't do is compare this Hurricane Season to that of 2005 (yet, anyways) like people were doing at the start.

[Mike]

The 2010 Atlantic season may seem like a dud to most people in the United States, but it's officially an above normal season already despite that we still have over two months to go.  We've had 11 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes to this point, which is exactly at the normal climatology values.  We're only supposed to have 2 major hurricanes in a normal season, but we've already had 5 so far.  What's really impressive is that 4 of those 5 major hurricanes reached Category 4 intensity. 

Seems there's a tendency by the general public to judge a tropical season by the number of landfalls. A busy season doesn't equate landfalls nor does a slow season mean no major impact. So far this year, the coastal U.S. has been spared. One of the slow seasons (1992) delivered one of the most memorable and expensive hurricanes on record: Andrew.

[bergone]

The guys over at AccuWeather are saying into October the storms should shift farther west..

[toxictwister00]

Although in fantasyland, Tampa, it could happen on October 5, 2010 with a possible Cat 3/4 hurricane.

Tuesday Afternoon, October 5, 2010 (956 mb)


Tuesday Night, October 5, 2010 (960 mb)


Wednesday Morning, October 6, 2010 (968 mb)


Wednesday Afternoon, October 6, 2010 (981 mb)


As a bonus, what I believe will be "Matthew" here is hell of a big storm in it's peak strength.