Hurricane Central 2010

[toxictwister00]

Could we be seeing Alex around the 21st of this month? Way too far out to say for sure, but it's worth noting.

06z GFS computer model run

[Jonathan]

Could we be seeing Alex around the 21st of this month? Way too far out to say for sure, but it's worth noting.

06z GFS computer model run

The pressure seems a bit high for it to be Alex, but it definitely looks formidable! (Who knows? It might be TS Alex in the Gulf and weaken to TD Alex by that image.)

EDIT: After looking at the GFS wind models, the winds on the outside of the storm will be around 25 knots. That makes me think the inner winds will be 30 to maybe 50 knots. If we go above 40, we have Alex. Really doesn't look that greatly organized, though.

[toxictwister00]

Your right, it doesn't look very impressive except for the QPFs which increased on the 18z run, but the low is weaker and it's 2 days faster.

[TWCToday]

GFS goes into fantasy land about 300hrs out Ill wait a bit

[Eric]

GFS goes into fantasy land about 300hrs out Ill wait a bit

LOL!  Well said!! 

[phw115wvwx]

Most models do a terrible job at depicting the initiation of tropical systems.  You'll be lucky if you see something verify even just 3 days out.

[Jonathan]

GFS goes into fantasy land about 300hrs out Ill wait a bit

 

For winter storms, it seems it falls into fantasy land about 100 hours out.

[TWCToday]

Couple little areas to watch. Few waves rolling off the African coast. Little disturbance in the central Atlantic as well http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

[TWCToday]

ABNT20 KNHC 122338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[toxictwister00]

ABNT20 KNHC 122338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

I went on the NHC's website, that one looks fairly healthy. It might mean some serious business if it can get more organized. Dry air is no problem and wind shear isn't too bad.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=92L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

[toxictwister00]

Sorry for double posting, but I saw another map from the link of the site I posted of wind shear over the next 24 hrs. Wind Shear should be fairly light and decreasing in a lot of areas in it's WNW path. We might actually get our first named storm of the season.

[toxictwister00]

Here's an update on our Invest 92

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TWCToday]

GFS in fantasy land range has something trying to remain organized

[WeatherWitness]

I can't wait for our first storm (even if this isn't it)! When is the average time that the first "system" (TS or hurricane) usually forms?

[phw115wvwx]

I can't wait for our first storm (even if this isn't it)! When is the average time that the first "system" (TS or hurricane) usually forms?

The first named storm forms on July 9 according to Atlantic hurricane season climatology from 1966-2009.  I'll put up a link for climatology section of NHC in the Important Links thread.