Hurricane Central 2009

[Zach]

Btw, here's an animated version of the GFS model. You'll find this site very helpful.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs.html

[toxictwister00]

00z run of the GFS takes potential "Hurricane Bill" near Miami,FL (similar to Andrew) weakens, intensifies and makes a second landfall into the FL Panhandle.

That's nowhere near Miami, that's right just where Frances and Jeanne made landfall.

Now I'm really doomed.

Zach, DON'T PANIC. There's too many What If's w/ both of these storms, there's still a chance it could recurve out to sea, or hit Savannah,Ga, or brush up along the NE who knows 10 days ahead from now, the GFS isn't even picking up on Ana that I've seen.

[TWCToday]

00z run of the GFS takes potential "Hurricane Bill" near Miami,FL (similar to Andrew) weakens, intensifies and makes a second landfall into the FL Panhandle.

I thought that was Ana and the thing off the east coast was the system  trailing Ana (Bill)?

[WeatherWitness]

Lastest GFS model update shows Ana crossing over Florida, reforming in gulf. TD3 is shown brushing the Carolinas http://bit.ly/3Zgkvv

Wait, so will TD3 (future Bill) go near Florida or further north to the Carolinas? People are saying two things here...guess we'll have to wait a little and see.

[TWCToday]

Lastest GFS model update shows Ana crossing over Florida, reforming in gulf. TD3 is shown brushing the Carolinas http://bit.ly/3Zgkvv

Wait, so will TD3 (future Bill) go near Florida or further north to the Carolinas? People are saying two things here...guess we'll have to wait a little and see.

I thought the GFS model was showing Ana crossing FL. Perhaps i was wrong

[TWCToday]

Btw, here's an animated version of the GFS model. You'll find this site very helpful.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs.html

That is old. There have been 2 runs since 0z

[WeatherWitness]

Lastest GFS model update shows Ana crossing over Florida, reforming in gulf. TD3 is shown brushing the Carolinas http://bit.ly/3Zgkvv

Wait, so will TD3 (future Bill) go near Florida or further north to the Carolinas? People are saying two things here...guess we'll have to wait a little and see.

I thought the GFS model was showing Ana crossing FL. Perhaps i was wrong

I think Ana will cross Florida. I'm wondering about TD3...maybe I'm reading the posts wrong.

[TWCToday]

Well these are all guesses based on long ranged models. Dont hold your breath on them. In fact the latest runs fizzles Ana but develops Bill while curving them off the east coast. Ana is a small system and i imagine GFS is having a hard time with initialization of it.

Although chances of development are low... been looking at this system off the FL coast. Seems to have fired up today

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

Tropical Storm Bill..Next Advisory!

[toxictwister00]

Well these are all guesses based on long ranged models. Dont hold your breath on them. In fact the latest runs fizzles Ana but develops Bill while curving them off the east coast. Ana is a small system and i imagine GFS is having a hard time with initialization of it.

Although chances of development are low... been looking at this system off the FL coast. Seems to have fired up today

It looks good on radar too.

[Localonthe8s]

I can technically say that TWC is in Storm alert mode because they keep showing TS ANA HAS FORMED....on the BBOD and the Bill, Ana intros

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical Depression #3 has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bill.  Here's the NHC 5 PM EDT advisory:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 152033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON
FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS
STRENGTHENED AND HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM BILL..THE SECOND NAME
CYCLONE OF THE SEASON.  AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
35.2 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES...1320 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.3N 35.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[toxictwister00]

Tropical Storm Ana Storm Track (Updated)

Tropical Storm Bill Storm Track

Tropical Storm Ana seems to be taking a southern route of the forecast cone like I suspected.

[WeatherWitness]

I can technically say that TWC is in Storm alert mode because they keep showing TS ANA HAS FORMED....on the BBOD and the Bill, Ana intros

It's kind of annoying that even tropical storms more than 5 days away from the U.S. will prompt TWC to focus primarily on the tropics.

Also, I wonder how strong Ana will be when it hits the United States. It looks like it will lose a lot of strength when it runs into Cuba.

[toxictwister00]

I can technically say that TWC is in Storm alert mode because they keep showing TS ANA HAS FORMED....on the BBOD and the Bill, Ana intros

It's kind of annoying that even tropical storms more than 5 days away from the U.S. will prompt TWC to focus primarily on the tropics.

Also, I wonder how strong Ana will be when it hits the United States. It looks like it will lose a lot of strength when it runs into Cuba.

If it can fight through the dry air in front of it (which is why it's having a hard time gaining strength) and can make it into the GOM it might at least get to a weak Cat 1 hurricane, she's a determined fighter, I had no faith in this thing yesterday becoming anything!