TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on April 12, 2010, 09:20:40 PM
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The Colorado State University forecast team predicts an above-average 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season based on the premise that El Niņo conditions will dissipate by this summer and that warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will persist.
The team predicts 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30 with eight expected to be hurricanes and four developing into major hurricanes, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
"We expect current moderate El Niņo conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this year's hurricane season," said Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster on the CSU hurricane forecast team, in a statement. "The dissipating El Niņo, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification."
The 2010 forecast marks 27 years of hurricane forecasting at Colorado State, led by William Gray. The hurricane forecast team makes its predictions based on 58 years of historical data.
"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," Gray said in a statement. "While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season."
The team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2010 will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2009 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 70 percent of the average season.
The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil are as follows:
A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010.
A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula.
A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas.
http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/home/503757-colorado-state-forecasters-see-busy-hurricane-season (http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/home/503757-colorado-state-forecasters-see-busy-hurricane-season)
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Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do :bleh:
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Funny. Bonnie was a big storm for us back around 1998. Repeat? :P Nah
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Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do :bleh:
xD you havent formed yet
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Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do :bleh:
xD you havent formed yet
Lets hope he isn't as pathetic as that Ana was. ~cough~ :P
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Well Hurricane Alex in 2004 was a Cat. 3 when it formed and scraped off the Carolina coast :whistling: :P
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Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do :bleh:
xD you havent formed yet
Lets hope he isn't as pathetic as that Ana was. ~cough~ :P
Excuse me?
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Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do :bleh:
xD you havent formed yet
Lets hope he isn't as pathetic as that Ana was. ~cough~ :P
Excuse me?
hehe Well your storm did put up a fight before she died :P
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hehe Well your storm did put up a fight before she died :P
That's much better. :P
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Have the 2009 hurricane name retirements been announced yet? I know spring is the time of year when they decide on this.
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Have the 2009 hurricane name retirements been announced yet? I know spring is the time of year when they decide on this.
I don't think any of them will be retired
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/retirednames.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/retirednames.shtml)
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Have the 2009 hurricane name retirements been announced yet? I know spring is the time of year when they decide on this.
No official announcement has been made yet by the World Meteorological Organization, but I'm fairly sure that no names from 2009 will be retired just as Martin said.
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I've wanted for a long time to experience a hurricane for myself, and I've decided I want to go directly towards it should one make landfall this year. Very tricky and last-minute concept, but throwing caution to the wind sounds exciting for me :P
Of course, I would have to stay a few miles inland to eradicate the concern over surge, and take emergency measures should anything take me by surprise.
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I've wanted for a long time to experience a hurricane for myself, and I've decided I want to go directly towards it should one make landfall this year. Very tricky and last-minute concept, but throwing caution to the wind sounds exciting for me :P
Of course, I would have to stay a few miles inland to eradicate the concern over surge, and take emergency measures should anything take me by surprise.
Um... okay... :blink:
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I've wanted for a long time to experience a hurricane for myself, and I've decided I want to go directly towards it should one make landfall this year. Very tricky and last-minute concept, but throwing caution to the wind sounds exciting for me :P
Of course, I would have to stay a few miles inland to eradicate the concern over surge, and take emergency measures should anything take me by surprise.
You have to be careful with these things. Most of the action really is at the coast but flooding still can be significant inland and so are the winds in certain storms. Ive always wanted to Hurricane chase but I'll just let them come to me.
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I've wanted for a long time to experience a hurricane for myself, and I've decided I want to go directly towards it should one make landfall this year. Very tricky and last-minute concept, but throwing caution to the wind sounds exciting for me :P
Of course, I would have to stay a few miles inland to eradicate the concern over surge, and take emergency measures should anything take me by surprise.
You have to be careful with these things. Most of the action really is at the coast but flooding still can be significant inland and so are the winds in certain storms. Ive always wanted to Hurricane chase but I'll just let them come to me.
Yes, I understand I have to know what I'm doing. But in order to eliminate or reduce the risk, one has to know what they're doing when doing storm chasing of any kind. You also don't have to hurricane chase, since you live in an area that actually has risk to being hit by tropical cyclones. I don't. I have to travel many hundreds of miles to see one.