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Author Topic: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season  (Read 4625 times)

Offline TWCToday

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Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« on: April 12, 2010, 09:20:40 PM »
Quote

The Colorado State University forecast team predicts an above-average 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season based on the premise that El Niņo conditions will dissipate by this summer and that warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will persist.
The team predicts 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30 with eight expected to be hurricanes and four developing into major hurricanes, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

"We expect current moderate El Niņo conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this year's hurricane season," said Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster on the CSU hurricane forecast team, in a statement. "The dissipating El Niņo, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification."

The 2010 forecast marks 27 years of hurricane forecasting at Colorado State, led by William Gray. The hurricane forecast team makes its predictions based on 58 years of historical data.

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," Gray said in a statement. "While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season."

The team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2010 will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2009 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 70 percent of the average season.

The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil are as follows:

A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010.
A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula.
A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas.

http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/home/503757-colorado-state-forecasters-see-busy-hurricane-season

Offline gt1racerlHDl

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2010, 09:28:51 PM »
Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do  :bleh:

Offline TWCToday

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2010, 09:41:58 PM »
Funny. Bonnie was a big storm for us back around 1998. Repeat? :P Nah

Offline Localonthe8s

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2010, 09:56:09 PM »
Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do  :bleh:
xD you havent formed yet

Offline TWCToday

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2010, 09:57:02 PM »
Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do  :bleh:
xD you havent formed yet
Lets hope he isn't as pathetic as that Ana was. ~cough~ :P

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2010, 10:18:49 PM »
Well Hurricane Alex in 2004 was a Cat. 3 when it formed and scraped off the Carolina coast  :whistling: :P


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Offline Anistorm

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2010, 07:20:26 PM »
Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do  :bleh:
xD you havent formed yet
Lets hope he isn't as pathetic as that Ana was. ~cough~ :P

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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2010, 07:50:55 PM »
Hurricane Alex got some explaining to do  :bleh:
xD you havent formed yet
Lets hope he isn't as pathetic as that Ana was. ~cough~ :P

Excuse me?
hehe Well your storm did put up a fight before she died :P

Offline Anistorm

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2010, 09:10:19 PM »
hehe Well your storm did put up a fight before she died :P

That's much better. :P



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Offline Mike M

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2010, 01:50:45 PM »
Have the 2009 hurricane name retirements been announced yet? I know spring is the time of year when they decide on this.

Offline TWCToday

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2010, 03:36:05 PM »
Have the 2009 hurricane name retirements been announced yet? I know spring is the time of year when they decide on this.

I don't think any of them will be retired

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/retirednames.shtml

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2010, 09:14:12 PM »
Have the 2009 hurricane name retirements been announced yet? I know spring is the time of year when they decide on this.
No official announcement has been made yet by the World Meteorological Organization, but I'm fairly sure that no names from 2009 will be retired just as Martin said.

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2010, 10:34:02 PM »
I've wanted for a long time to experience a hurricane for myself, and I've decided I want to go directly towards it should one make landfall this year. Very tricky and last-minute concept, but throwing caution to the wind sounds exciting for me :P
Of course, I would have to stay a few miles inland to eradicate the concern over surge, and take emergency measures should anything take me by surprise.
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Offline Eric

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2010, 10:45:56 PM »
I've wanted for a long time to experience a hurricane for myself, and I've decided I want to go directly towards it should one make landfall this year. Very tricky and last-minute concept, but throwing caution to the wind sounds exciting for me :P
Of course, I would have to stay a few miles inland to eradicate the concern over surge, and take emergency measures should anything take me by surprise.

Um... okay...  :blink:

Offline TWCToday

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Re: Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season
« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2010, 11:11:29 PM »
I've wanted for a long time to experience a hurricane for myself, and I've decided I want to go directly towards it should one make landfall this year. Very tricky and last-minute concept, but throwing caution to the wind sounds exciting for me :P
Of course, I would have to stay a few miles inland to eradicate the concern over surge, and take emergency measures should anything take me by surprise.
You have to be careful with these things. Most of the action really is at the coast but flooding still can be significant inland and so are the winds in certain storms. Ive always wanted to Hurricane chase but I'll just let them come to me.