2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

[altesticstorm10]

What's your predictions for the upcoming hurricane season, beginning June 1st?

Mine are for 20 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

Reasons?

- Record-level sea surface temperatures observed in the Atlantic, surpassing those recorded in 2005. In addition, TCHP is at the highest level ever observed for this point in May.
- Below-average upper-level wind shear across the development regions of the basin, running between 5 and 35 knots below normal.
- El Nino is dying or already dead as we speak. The Nino 3.4 region is down to 0.0C which is exactly neutral. The other Ninos are either neutral with a warm bias or remaining at weak El Nino status, but are expected to decrease to "neutral" before the start of the hurricane season. A neutral to cold bias or weak La Nina is predicted for this year's hurricane season, which is similar to what we saw beginning in the autumn of 2005.
- Above-average moisture is forecast for the Atlantic during this year's hurricane season as below-normal air pressures are expected throughout the hurricane season. This will disallow dry air and Saharan dust to roam the Atlantic as it did in seasons such as 2007. African (Cape Verde) waves will be allowed to develop free of too much African dust and subsidence.

[TWCToday]

I am thinking 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major.

[Mike M]

The hurricane center often overestimates their predictions, so I'm going with Martin's.

[altesticstorm10]

...but this is 2010, 2005 being the analog year...

[Jonathan]

What's your predictions for the upcoming hurricane season, beginning June 1st?

Mine are for 20 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

Reasons?

- Record-level sea surface temperatures observed in the Atlantic, surpassing those recorded in 2005. In addition, TCHP is at the highest level ever observed for this point in May.
- Below-average upper-level wind shear across the development regions of the basin, running between 5 and 35 knots below normal.
- El Nino is dying or already dead as we speak. The Nino 3.4 region is down to 0.0C which is exactly neutral. The other Ninos are either neutral with a warm bias or remaining at weak El Nino status, but are expected to decrease to "neutral" before the start of the hurricane season. A neutral to cold bias or weak La Nina is predicted for this year's hurricane season, which is similar to what we saw beginning in the autumn of 2005.
- Above-average moisture is forecast for the Atlantic during this year's hurricane season as below-normal air pressures are expected throughout the hurricane season. This will disallow dry air and Saharan dust to roam the Atlantic as it did in seasons such as 2007. African (Cape Verde) waves will be allowed to develop free of too much African dust and subsidence.

Honestly, I think I'm going to jump off the "going with Martin" bandwagon and say that this hurricane season might be just under the bar set by the 2005 season. Thus, I'm going with altesticstorm10's estimate.

Forecasters, even non-NWS ones, have said that this will likely be a hell of a year. Their words and mine.

[TWCmatthew]

I'm thinking 2010 will be right in line after 2005.

[bergone]

Not that close, but I'm thinking 13 to maybe 18 storms if the "storm train" really keeps up.

[TWCToday]

I am thinking 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major.

well thats a fail

[TWCmatthew]

It looks like the NWS and NHC overestimated this year...

[Zach]

It looks like the NWS and NHC overestimated this year...

I think you mean underestimated... that can be the case of tropical storms but there were more hurricanes this year than TSs only to be named 

[beanboy89]

I am thinking 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major.

well thats a fail

You were close. So far, there's been 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes. I wouldn't call it a fail.

[Lightning]

Yeah, I would say that this year's hurricane season has lived up to it's predictions.

[TWCToday]

Yeah, I would say that this year's hurricane season has lived up to it's predictions.

The media sure was freaking out for a while. They had hyped this season way out of proportion and the storms didn't start forming until late August.