TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on July 20, 2010, 10:48:39 AM
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A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
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TWC mentioned that 4 tropical waves could develop into something. Will be interesting to see if anything forms
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Interesting most of the models bring it up towards me like how Frances came into Florida in 2004
(http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/3374/modelsstorm1.jpg)
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Chances of a tropical depression forming have been raised to 60% now for this invest.
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I believe this will be Bonnie. Some of the models have been really interesting!
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70% A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ALTHOUGH A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND LIKELY AFFECT
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
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Chances have been reduced back to 60% as of 8 AM:
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL TOMORROW. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
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VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
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Getting very concerned about that second landfall. If shear remains low, there could be some major strengthening
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TD 3 Forms
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
75.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
Tropical Storm Warning
For Southern Florida & The Florida Keys
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0310W5_NL_sm2+gif/145913W5_NL_sm.gif)
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Its official. Tropical Storm Bonnie has been born
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Bonnie is still a minimal tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph based on the 11 PM EDT advisory. It's not in the best upper-level environment for strengthening, but it's expected to slowly intensify as it brushes south Florida on Friday and heads for the Louisiana coast by Sunday.
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Because of the amount of shear, looking like a gulf coast hit as a TS or at most a weak CAT 1 hurricane, if it wasn't for the shear, this could have become a monster with the warm gulf.
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Bonnie is now a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph after crossing southern Florida. It could still be just a depression or a weak tropical storm by the time it makes a second landfall along southeastern Louisiana late on Saturday. So, Bonnie is just going to be a rain maker at most, but there could be a lot of flooding ahead for the Southeast.
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I figured LA issued a state of emergency just a bit too early. They should have waited for slightly better guidance. There was never an indication that this storm would reach over TS status. Even the more stronger inclined models like HWRF didn't show anything
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Bonnie is barely hanging on with winds of 30 mph. There's just too much shear for it to do anything. All tropical storm warnings have been dropped.
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We got a lot of rain yesterday from this :D It didnt leave much wind damage but winds are still a little high in the coastal areas now
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Bonnie is no longer a tropical depression. The shear was so much that it degenerated into a remnant low even before it could make landfall over Louisiana. NHC is no longer issuing advisories, so it's purely a flood threat from here.