TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on August 26, 2010, 04:07:18 PM
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Looking very healthy today!
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60% Chance - Code RED
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
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This will be more of a potential to make US landfall
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This is looking real good...although not as good as earlier this afternoon. Still has massive potential.
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There are so many tropical systems/potential tropical systems right now...it's amazing! :thrilled: We have Danielle, Earl, a wave that is likely to become Fiona, another one behind that one that could be Gaston, and I think ANOTHER one (still over Africa) that may become Hermine! This is all very exciting...the season is firing up just in time. :biggrin:
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And even after that there's still more systems in Africa that will need to be closely monitored. It would be something if a place got hit by 3 or 4 hurricanes all in about 3-4 weeks. :P
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Still, there's a chance that they could curve away from the U.S (if the pattern doesn't change, which is unlikely)
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This will be more of a potential to make US landfall
Actually its already a bit further north than ideal for a US landfall.
Still, there's a chance that they could curve away from the U.S (if the pattern doesn't change, which is unlikely)
There are so many variables and models are just starting to latch onto this one. Its safe to say it could do anything
And even after that there's still more systems in Africa that will need to be closely monitored. It would be something if a place got hit by 3 or 4 hurricanes all in about 3-4 weeks. :P
More in the tube last time i looked at the sat
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Here's my early thoughts on Invest 97L (Possibly Future Fiona)
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Love your graphic, Tavores! :biggrin: Both Danielle and Earl seem to be making a northward trend; I wonder if this will be the case for future Fiona and other tropical cyclones that form off the coast of Africa. :thinking:
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New York City better keep a close eye on this. It could be the first hurricane to hit there in decades.
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i don't expect fiona to really affect new england but might be some rain squalls when it passes to our east.
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This is 240 hrs out and I know the models will continue to change, but Savannah,GA and Charleston, SC might wanna brace themselves this could be another Katrina like catastrophe if this scenario actually played out. Hopefully that won't be the case, but I know the GA coast is due for a major hurricane andl it's a scary thing to see since it's been on all runs of the ECMWF today trending westward for a GA/SC hit :(
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP216.gif)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP240.gif)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbWinds240.gif)
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Fiona is a fierce name, one that I could see being as a fierce storm.
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Since yesterday, the ECMWF continues to indicate that this invest will be a FL threat making landfall over central FL post Labor Day next week. (Sept 7th - 9th) After that it's foreshadowing this becoming a Gulf Coast problem....
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical500mbSLP240.gif)
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this would be a terrible hit if fiona holds true
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Oh Hai, Tropical Storm Fiona.
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FINALLY They name this thing officially, I thought it would be forever before it got out of the red zone. :P
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Currently, Fiona looks like a disappointment. Projected paths are showing this thing to be no more than a tropical storm that will end (before Earl :blink:) by Saturday afternoon. Shear? What's keeping this storm from intensifying any further? :dunno:
(http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/2072/fionapp.gif)
(http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/5466/fionatwcpp.jpg)
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Currently, Fiona looks like a disappointment. Projected paths are showing this thing to be no more than a tropical storm that will end (before Earl :blink:) by Saturday afternoon. Shear? What's keeping this storm from intensifying any further? :dunno:
([url]http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/2072/fionapp.gif[/url])
([url]http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/5466/fionatwcpp.jpg[/url])
I believe the outflow from Earl is inhibiting it's development (shear) since it's in close proximity to Earl. The same happened to Earl when it was developing because of Danielle.
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Earl is killing Fiona. Can't see it doing much
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Earl is killing Fiona. Can't see it doing much
They're a mad couple! :P
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Earl is killing Fiona. Can't see it doing much
They're a mad couple! :P
LOL! :rofl2: But seriously, I didn't know that hurricanes can "kill" other hurricanes. Has this happened before?
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LOL! :rofl2: But seriously, I didn't know that hurricanes can "kill" other hurricanes. Has this happened before?
Yes, the shear associated with a hurricane can affect weaker ones, and can even absorb it. A perfect example was in 2005 when Tropical Storm Alpha was absorbed by Wilma.
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LOL! :rofl2: But seriously, I didn't know that hurricanes can "kill" other hurricanes. Has this happened before?
Yes, the shear associated with a hurricane can affect weaker ones, and can even absorb it. A perfect example was in 2005 when Tropical Storm Alpha was absorbed by Wilma.
The outflow from one storm can mess up the other storm as it causes extra wind shear on the other one. They're both trying to compete for warm water, inflow of air at the surface, and clear venting at the top for outflow.
Tropical Storm Fiona has winds of 60 mph now, and it's turning northward towards Bermuda but will slowly weaken as it heads out to sea afterward.
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I guess you can add Fiona to the list of fish storms this season then. :(
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This thing is getting torn apart by the outflow of Earl. Probably done this time tommorow evening (maybe sooner) dissapating into a wave.
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All these storms seem to always move near the Caribbean then turn north to northeast.
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All these storms seem to always move near the Caribbean then turn north to northeast.
Part of it has to do with the position of the high in the Atlantic.