Hurricane Earl- Storm Train

[bergone]

Right now I say drastic turn to the north.

[TWCToday]

Some models have exploded this storms intensity but we all know how accurate intensity forecasts are. For now my best guess would be a curve hitting Bermuda or going in between but its all dependent on this ridge. Its certainly one storm folks will want to stay on top of

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical Storm Earl is still at 45 mph winds as of 5 AM, but NHC is expecting it to intensify into a strong hurricane as it continues westward over the next couple days.  The track does show a curving to the north that would suggest it may miss the East Coast, but Bermuda is certainly at greater risk with this one.

[TWCToday]

I call fish even for Bermuda

[TWCToday]

Well more of a westward shift today

[toxictwister00]

Well more of a westward shift today

Honestly I think the NHC is curving Earl north too quickly and I still don't see it getting to hurricane status as early as tomorrow morning as they're indicating.

[TWCmatthew]

I think it was up to 60 about 6 AM. Maybe I was mistaking, I just quickly glanced at the TV.

[toxictwister00]

I think it was up to 60 about 6 AM. Maybe I was mistaking, I just quickly glanced at the TV.

It is, but it's poorly organized if you ask me. Anyways here's my thinking on Earl. (subject to change)

EDIT: Has anyone noticed that Earl looks like not only is it moving quickly due west, but it also seems to be wobbling SW as well?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[WeatherWitness]

Here are the latest projected paths for Earl (from TWC and the NHC). If it continues to turn north and then northeast as it comes closer and closer to the US East Coast, then the East Coast will likely just receive the outer rain bands of the storm. But the NHC projected path looks a little ominous; what if it doesn't keep turning north and makes a direct hit on North Carolina and Virginia as a MAJOR hurricane.

[beanboy89]

At this point, it's way too early to start making landfall projections of something that is still a tropical storm and well east of the Lesser Antilles.

If you look at the spaghetti models, all of them project Earl will recurve back into the Atlantic due to the strong ridge of high pressure over the northeast, much like Danielle is doing now, albeit the only difference is Earl will be closer to the coast than Danielle.

[TWCToday]

Honestly I think the NHC is curving Earl north too quickly and I still don't see it getting to hurricane status as early as tomorrow morning as they're indicating.

They have shifted the track slightly but I see no indication with models, history and other conditions at the moment that would prevent the curve. I am eager to see the 00z models late tonight

[WeatherWitness]

Are those spaghetti models available on NOAA's website? They're a lot better than the TWC ones; I neglected to look at them.

[TWCToday]

Are those spaghetti models available on NOAA's website? They're a lot better than the TWC ones; I neglected to look at them.

The GFS Esembles? Yes I believe so.

Also of note there is a cold front approaching areas on the east coast around Friday. A further buffer perhaps

[beanboy89]

Are those spaghetti models available on NOAA's website? They're a lot better than the TWC ones; I neglected to look at them.

Got them from here: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots.html

[TWCmatthew]

I think it was up to 60 about 6 AM. Maybe I was mistaking, I just quickly glanced at the TV.

It is, but it's poorly organized if you ask me. Anyways here's my thinking on Earl. (subject to change)

EDIT: Has anyone noticed that Earl looks like not only is it moving quickly due west, but it also seems to be wobbling SW as well?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Yeah, I noticed that too. It's been wobbling SW, then NW, SW, NW. Something there is pushing Earl around. Maybe that's why it's slowly intensifying, rather than rapidly.