2011 Hurricane Season Outlook Released

[Mr. Rainman]

I saw that this thread could get shut down on New Year's Day, so I wanted to bring this in. Colorado State University issued their predictions for the 2011 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. The predictions point to almost as active a season as we had in 2010. My question for aspiring (or actual) meteorologists: do you agree, or do you have a different prediction?



My prediction is just a little lower:

14 Storms
6-7 Hurricanes
3-4 Major

[WeatherWitness]

Predictions already for 2011? I'm suprised how far we can "go out," but I guess with all the new technology these days it is possible.

[Eric]

Way too early to make anything but the vaguest of predictions right now. 

[phw115wvwx]

I personally think it's impossible to predict a hurricane season with any accuracy, especially this far out from the season starting date.

[weatherlover94]

I personally think it's impossible to predict a hurricane season with any accuracy, especially this far out from the season starting date.

yes you are right and  any predictions could be wrong they could forecast what they are now and all the way until the 30th of November and not one hurricane form in the Atlantic or they could forecast this and 100 hurricanes form in the Atlantic now im sure there will be hurricanes just saying we dont know what the season is going to hold 

[Eric]

yes you are right and  any predictions could be wrong they could forecast what they are now and all the way until the 30th of November and not one hurricane form in the Atlantic or they could forecast this and 100 hurricanes form in the Atlantic now im sure there will be hurricanes just saying we dont know what the season is going to hold 

Wow - I should have gotten you a period key for your keyboard for Christmas!

[TWCmatthew]

WAAAAY too early for Hurricane Season 2011 predictions. I'll be back on this topic in April for my predictions.

[weatherlover94]

Wow - I should have gotten you a period key for your keyboard for Christmas!
[/quote]

im so sorry. I should have had paid more attention and put in periods. Just didint think about...sorry.

[TWCToday]

Hurricane forecasts are pointless. All they do is stir up the media and the public. Then you get false sense of security when people hear things like "below normal" forecast. Even last year I have heard a lot of people say "oh those scientists predicted a huge hurricane season and we got nothing". All it takes is for one big storm to hit the coast.

[weatherlover94]

your right Martin. Like i said only 1 hurricane can form all season long but it hits some were in the us. That makes it an active season for were ever it hit. We got by lucky in 2010 and no hurricanes hit. We only hope we can be as fortunate in 2011

[TWCmatthew]

There could be 30 storms in a season that do not make landfall and costal residents say "that season wasn't active." Then, there could be only 1 storm, a big one, in a season, and the residents say "that was the worst hurricane season ever."

[WeatherWitness]

I can't believe TWC was the one who made this graphic (I know CSU really came up with the forecast) so early. I know that they're The Hurricane Authority and want to stir up excitement, blah, blah, but shouldn't THEY use common sense that a prediction this early is stupid and pointless?

[weatherlover94]

Very pointless. I say make the predictions the first predictions in May.

[Mike M]

Hurricane forecasts are pointless. All they do is stir up the media and the public. Then you get false sense of security when people hear things like "below normal" forecast. Even last year I have heard a lot of people say "oh those scientists predicted a huge hurricane season and we got nothing". All it takes is for one big storm to hit the coast.

Exactly. You never know what mother nature really has planned for us.

[phw115wvwx]

We're actually getting better over the past decades at detecting, forecasting, and warning areas that will be impacted by a tropical cyclone as it happens.  Just keep monitoring the tropics, and follow the NHC forecasts and advisories as it's their job to protect lives and property.  The bottom line is that you assume full responsibility to be prepared for a hurricane no matter what if you live along the coast.