Hurricane Shary

[TWCToday]

Tropical Storm SHARY Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 290254
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS.  THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC.  BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  SINCE THERE IS
ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20.  IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  FOR NOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS

[phw115wvwx]

Here's another tropical storm that barely made the cut.  Shary will only be a small threat to Bermuda, but it poses no threat to the United States.  Here's something you may not realize:  While the Atlantic continues to churn late in the season, the western Pacific has been completely silent since September 23 after Georgette dissipated.

[TWCToday]

Here's another tropical storm that barely made the cut.  Shary will only be a small threat to Bermuda, but it poses no threat to the United States.  Here's something you may not realize:  While the Atlantic continues to churn late in the season, the western Pacific has been completely silent since September 23 after Georgette dissipated.

I am impressed with the Pacific. This has been a nice quiet streak for it.

[Mike M]

Last year, you may recall, the central/eastern Pacific was much more active than the Atlantic, with 20 named storms (versus nine in the Atlantic). So far this year we've had 18 named storms in the Atlantic and only seven in the eastern Pacific. No storms have formed in the central part of the ocean yet this year. If it stays this way it will be the first season with no named storms in the central Pacific (new storms or remnants of storms from the east) since 1979, and the EastPac will have their quietest season in at least 15 years.

[phw115wvwx]

Shary is now a hurricane with winds of 75 mph as of 5 AM EDT.  It won't last too much longer as it heads harmlessly into the open Atlantic.

[TWCToday]

Shary is now a hurricane with winds of 75 mph as of 5 AM EDT.  It won't last too much longer as it heads harmlessly into the open Atlantic.

Looks like someone at the NHC wants to run up the # of hurricanes to me   

[Eric]

Shary is now a hurricane with winds of 75 mph as of 5 AM EDT.  It won't last too much longer as it heads harmlessly into the open Atlantic.

Looks like someone at the NHC wants to run up the # of hurricanes to me   

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck.

Should a hurricane be conveniently ignored simply because it's not bothering land, is tiny, and extremely short-lived?  Are we to count only the Katrinas, Andrews, and Hugos?

[TWCToday]

Shary is now a hurricane with winds of 75 mph as of 5 AM EDT.  It won't last too much longer as it heads harmlessly into the open Atlantic.

Looks like someone at the NHC wants to run up the # of hurricanes to me   

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck.

Should a hurricane be conveniently ignored simply because it's not bothering land, is tiny, and extremely short-lived?  Are we to count only the Katrinas, Andrews, and Hugos?

Uh thats not what i meant at all. Several mets I have spoken to agree it most likely should not have been made a hurricane. The NHC discussion shows that they were conflicted

SHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER ...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL. THE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT. NORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH DISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS THE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT. THIS IS A GOOD CASE OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE.

 Here is your duck at the time it was a hurricane

[phw115wvwx]

It's very questionable as microwave satellite images did show a brief eye, but Shary was merging with a non-tropical front.  This situation could have helped convection to intensify through non-tropical processes, which would cause the winds to briefly increase.  It should definitely be open to more debate in the research field as there have been issues about politics mixing in with some of these close calls.  By the way, Shary is now extratropical, so all advisories have been discontinued.

[Eric]

Until the NHC downgrades it in post-season analysis, I'm going to continue to call it a hurricane.