March 29, 2024, 03:39:17 AM

Author Topic: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season  (Read 19277 times)

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #45 on: February 02, 2012, 09:02:35 AM »
Well Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today meaning 6 more weeks of winter. The only thing I have to say to that is "Where the heck has winter been the past 2 months?"  :unsure: :dunno: This is winter like weather? Heh, I hate to see what Spring like weather is...:whistling:


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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #46 on: February 02, 2012, 02:45:45 PM »
Well Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today meaning 6 more weeks of winter. The only thing I have to say to that is "Where the heck has winter been the past 2 months?"  :unsure: :dunno: This is winter like weather? Heh, I hate to see what Spring like weather is...:whistling:

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow? You sure he wasn't hallucinating?  :rofl2:
Tiddlywinks.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #47 on: February 02, 2012, 02:50:44 PM »
Well Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today meaning 6 more weeks of winter. The only thing I have to say to that is "Where the heck has winter been the past 2 months?"  :unsure: :dunno: This is winter like weather? Heh, I hate to see what Spring like weather is...:whistling:

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow? You sure he wasn't hallucinating?  :rofl2:

Or drunk, I'm gonna assume both. :P Our groundhog General Lee didn't see his so Spring will be here for good soon although he says that every year... :rolleyes:


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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #48 on: February 02, 2012, 03:07:17 PM »
Heh, that's why South Carolina doesn't have one. It would say Spring every dang year.

It will still be winter for Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska with some areas seeing up to 14-16 inches of snow. Blizzard warnings and watches are currently out.
Tiddlywinks.

Offline twcclassics

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #49 on: February 02, 2012, 03:18:42 PM »
Looks like a major winter storm is headed in our direction. Rain tomorrow, turning to snow tomorrow night, continuing into Saturday. Our area could get as much as 6 inches, which would be our biggest storm this winter. More at AccuWeather (with a video forecast by Mark Mancuso)...

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzard-bearing-down-on-nebra-1/61082
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Offline Mike M

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #50 on: February 02, 2012, 05:04:34 PM »
Well Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today meaning 6 more weeks of winter. The only thing I have to say to that is "Where the heck has winter been the past 2 months?"  :unsure: :dunno: This is winter like weather? Heh, I hate to see what Spring like weather is...:whistling:
>why Groundhog Day is the most pointless holiday of the year B)

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #51 on: February 12, 2012, 10:47:06 AM »
I'll have a map up on my preliminary snow/ice forecast later.





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Offline Trevor

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #52 on: February 12, 2012, 10:59:08 AM »
For the Memphis area, i'm forecasting 1-3" south of I-40, 2-4"+ north of I-40.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #53 on: February 12, 2012, 12:59:35 PM »




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Offline Donovan

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #54 on: February 12, 2012, 01:05:09 PM »


Nice Job Tavores! I honestly had no idea what this system was doing, thanks for the explainer map!

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #55 on: February 12, 2012, 01:39:50 PM »
Nice Job Tavores! I honestly had no idea what this system was doing, thanks for the explainer map!

Thank you, it's a very tricky forecast. A lot of bust potential in my snowfall map if even one thing goes wrong or off track especially in the pink area since this is where I was the most bullish on wintry weather. This area is the most frustrating for me to have much confidence in because it relies heavily on timing of the precip, how fast the warm air advection kicks in, and how fast the HP that settles into E TN/W NC moves out to sea. I'm the most confident on the best areas to see accumulating snow will be from Memphis to Nashville north.

I'm watching the radar trends in TX and the Southern stream isn't looking half bad. Let's take San Angelo, TX for example, a band of heavy precip is heading right for them from the south. Current obs show that San Angelo is only 34 degrees and the dewpoint is still in the teens! It won't take take very long for wetbulbing/evaporational cooling to occur here and bring moderate to possibly heavy snow. I wouldn't be surprised to hear isolated reports of thundersnow as well.

Something else that's interesting to note about San Angelo, earlier this morning the NWS forecast was only calling for rain/sleet. As of the 1pm hour they are now calling for snow/sleet and 1-2 inches! They weren't forecasting any snow accumulations this morning so this is a last minute change. That's what I'm concerned with for areas eastward that everything that happens will have to be figured out in a now-casting mode rather than relying on models short or long term.

RADAR IS TIME SENSITIVE
« Last Edit: February 12, 2012, 01:49:15 PM by Weatherlover »


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Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #56 on: February 12, 2012, 03:03:00 PM »
San Angelo is currently reporting heavy snow, as of 1:45 pm CST.  And take a look at their 7-day: 76 degrees by Tuesday!  "If you don't like the weather now, just wait 5 minutes!" :P

As far as the winter weather forecast for OKC/Norman, I can not tell you how many times I have seen it change.  First, it was a slight chance of rain and snow on Sunday.  Then that quickly changed to most of the action happening Sunday night into Monday.  A chance of rain and snow changed to wintry mix, which has now finally changed to snow and sleet expected.  Accumulations should be very minimal.  There is a weather forecaster here who loves to exaggerate snow totals, saying we would get anywhere from 1 to 3 inches.  But I don't think that's going to happen.  Since temperatures will be hovering around the freezing mark, roadways (especially briges/overpasses) may become slick, but I don't think snowfall total is going to be impressive.  Did you know the ground is so warm I actually saw steam coming off of the concrete in a rain shower we had the other day? :blink:

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #57 on: February 12, 2012, 03:49:33 PM »
It's just an estimate, I can't confirm whether they have accumulated over an inch yet.


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Offline Donovan

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #58 on: February 12, 2012, 05:08:56 PM »
And the mess continues tomorrow. I was having trouble with the nws grids matching up with the actual 7 day for some reason. Some local forecasts may be off slightly.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2012, 06:07:49 PM by Donovan »

Offline Trevor

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Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
« Reply #59 on: February 12, 2012, 05:14:22 PM »
Great icons, Donovan! I sent you a PM.