Nice Job Tavores! I honestly had no idea what this system was doing, thanks for the explainer map!
Thank you, it's a very tricky forecast. A lot of bust potential in my snowfall map if even one thing goes wrong or off track especially in the pink area since this is where I was the most bullish on wintry weather. This area is the most frustrating for me to have much confidence in because it relies heavily on timing of the precip, how fast the warm air advection kicks in, and how fast the HP that settles into E TN/W NC moves out to sea. I'm the most confident on the best areas to see accumulating snow will be from Memphis to Nashville north.
I'm watching the radar trends in TX and the Southern stream isn't looking half bad. Let's take San Angelo, TX for example, a band of heavy precip is heading right for them from the south. Current obs show that San Angelo is only 34 degrees and the dewpoint is still in the
teens! It won't take take very long for wetbulbing/evaporational cooling to occur here and bring moderate to possibly heavy snow. I wouldn't be surprised to hear isolated reports of
thundersnow as well.
Something else that's interesting to note about San Angelo, earlier this morning the NWS forecast was only calling for rain/sleet. As of the 1pm hour they are now calling for snow/sleet and 1-2 inches! They weren't forecasting any snow accumulations this morning so this is a last minute change. That's what I'm concerned with for areas eastward that everything that happens will have to be figured out in a now-casting mode rather than relying on models short or long term.
RADAR IS TIME SENSITIVE
