Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season

[toxictwister00]

Even Hitler is fed up with Winter this year! 

Hitler Cancels Winter

[TWCToday]

Bwahahaha!!!! Too bad its not the classic clip we all are used to but still that was epic!

[toxictwister00]

I know this is gonna change, but were finally seeing fantasy storms again on the GFS! (Well about the past 3 runs or so around the 10th of Feb.) What's even more wild is it bleeds a 1052 HP across the Plains. The bottom literally falls out across the Eastern 2/3rds of the US.

12z GFS Hrs. 276-300

[Mr. Rainman]

Yeesh, if that really played out, it would be one of the strongest high pressure systems ever to affect the United States, and the cold area across the Northern Plains could be record breaking. It probably won't, but part of me sorta wants to see that happen.

[TWCCraig]

It's possible but don't count on it. I've been watching the GFS recently and I have to say it's been gaining more confidence about what's going to happen in February. It's showing some major blizzards along the east coast just as I thought would happen. Hopefully those come true.

[toxictwister00]

I feel somewhat confident and optimistic that February will be the transition month back to Winter, but we'll see. It helps that the Global models agree on a building Pacific Ridge (+PNA) and even hint at a possible -NAO in the long to medium range! I can't remember the last time this entire winter this had happened. It's basically been every model for itself.

I didn't mentioned this in the previous post, but the possible Miller A storm around February 10th does have support from the GFS ensembles so that's a positive sign. I don't care about it being a big storm or not for my area, I just want to see some snow for pete's sake! The mild weather is ok and all, but it's getting very old and it doesn't feel right  considering how consistently cold it was last winter.

[WeatherWitness]

Though this is based on no research, I, for some reason, have a sneaking suspicion that things are going to be topsy-turvy when it comes to spring.  When we're expecting the mild temperatures is going to be when the snow and arctic air invades.  Hopefully that won't be the case.

I'm also wondering about the status of La Nina.  I guess we can justify that the south has been warmer, but it's been pretty wet lately.  I guess judging the pattern based on one system is inaccurate, but it is nice to see this rainfall.  *knocks on wood*

[Mr. Rainman]

The Climate Prediction Center does weekly updates on El Nino and La Nina, releasing reports every Monday. The latest one is here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

As for the pattern change, I have terrible luck forecasting pattern changes, so I won't give an official forecast, but I think the East will finally get colder, and see an increased probability of snowstorms. Cold wise, though, part of me thinks that temperatures will merely drop down to average, and that we won't see too much below average.

[TWCToday]

  At the least the models have been kinda consistant that there will be some kind of storm. Winter uncancel?

[Mike M]

I've heard people even here in the northeast whose spring flowers have already bloomed. Insane

[Localonthe8s]

The cherry blossoms in dc have already bloomed. The national mall is as green as anything!

[toxictwister00]

That's why I hate this mild weather has gone for so long as it has, even if February doesn't work out to be cold and stormy, I still think March and April will be which will be terrible news for the agriculture community.

Also, I've heard some folks who live in the SE at other forums say they're seeing flowers/trees blossom along with pollen and even mosquitoes!

[Mike M]

Oh yeah forgot about that... I'd imagine we'll be having a huge problems with bugs this year too.

[phw115wvwx]

I'm certainly keeping alert for the possibility of a freak winter storm later in February or March with this pattern.  Regardless, I still feel we're going to be mild overall as nothing suggests a significant pattern change anytime soon that would allow for longer cold outbreaks.  Even if we had a sudden cold snap, it seems that it would only be temporary.

[TWCCraig]

I'm also noticing that on some of the little shrubs, (non-evergreen), they have some green on them. There are even some spring/summer time plants still alive from the summer.