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Author Topic: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts  (Read 13202 times)

Offline toxictwister00

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Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« on: October 14, 2009, 09:43:34 PM »
Here's Accuweather's official winter forecast for 2009-2010. If your a snowlover and you live from Dallas, to Atlanta, to Charlotte and all the way up to New England your gonna love this forecast. I've seen several winter forecasts and they all seem to agree that the Eastern 2/3rds of the US is gonna get hammered this winter. If you want you can also post Winter forecasts from other sources too.



Here's the forecasts in more detail by regions:

According to AccuWeather.com's Chief Meteorologist and Expert Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi, winter will be centered over an area from Maryland to the Carolinas as a fading El Niņo results in the stormiest and coldest pattern in recent years.

Bastardi predicts the current El Niņo will fade over the winter and will probably not have as much of a role in the overall weather pattern as one would think during a typical El Niņo year. In July, Joe was the first to talk about how the fading El Niņo will play a role in the winter forecast. This fading El Niņo pattern will lead to a stormier and colder winter in the southern and eastern United States. While the El Niņo is fading this winter, other factors are pointing to a winter very similar to that of 2002-2003.

A colder, snowier winter would mean added snow removal efforts, more travel delays and extended school closures, especially for the southern schools where snow and ice is predicted.


Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

The areas that will be hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be from southern New England through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including the Carolinas. Areas from Washington D.C. to Charlotte have had very little snowfall the past two winters. This season these areas could end up with above-normal snowfall.

Northern areas, including Buffalo, Boston and Maine, have been hit hard the past couple of winters, but will see normal snowfall with temperatures slightly below normal this winter.

However, the traditional lake-effect areas of western New York may see local variations of heavier snows. Bastardi adds that while these areas will have a normal winter, the areas farther south that have escaped from the snow and cold the past couple of winters will see the worst winter conditions in the form of snow and cold.

Cities such as New York, Boston and Philadelphia could get up to 75 percent of their total snowfall in two or three big storms.

While some parts of the Appalachians did have harsh winter weather in the form of ice last year, this winter could be one of the snowiest since 2002-2003, when up to 80 inches fell in many places. Snowfall totals this year could reach between 50 and 100 inches in the Appalachians.

Last winter, the usage of salt was way up because of the number of ice storms. Salt supplies could be compromised again this year for state and local road crews that battle the winter weather. On the other hand, ski resorts could have a great year with plenty of powder for skiers.

The storm track that could develop this year will bring storms into Southern California, then across the South and up the Eastern Seaboard. That track will lead to the normal amount of nor'easters from Cape Hatteras to New Jersey.

This type of storm track will differ from that of the past two years, when storms tended to take a track farther west from Texas into the Great Lakes. That track into the Great Lakes brought unseasonably mild weather to the major East Coast cities, keeping them on the rainy side of the storms.


The South

The track this year right along the Eastern Seaboard would put the major cities on the cold, wintry side of the storms. Areas form Atlanta to Charlotte could have several snowstorms this year, which is something that this region has not seen in a while.

The Interstate 20 corridor from Dallas to Atlanta will be a strike zone for ice and snow, given the storm track and proximity to cold air. By the end of the winter, people from Dallas to the Carolinas could say "Wow, we had snow this year!" said Bastardi.


Midwest and Plains

The Midwest and central Plains could get a break this winter, given that past couple of winters have been cold and snowy. Places such as Chicago, Omaha, Minneapolis and Kansas City may have below-normal snowfall and could even average a bit milder than past years.

However, Oklahoma into Texas will be where the cold will lead to ice and snow, and it is not out of the question that snow and ice are as far south as College Station and San Antonio, Texas.


West and Pacific Northwest

A warm and somewhat dry weather pattern is expected from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. The typical barrage of winter storms that hit Seattle and Portland may not occur this winter, which would lead to below-normal precipitation.

The core of the wet weather will be south of San Francisco into southern California and the Southwest. While some people across Southern California fear the El Ni intense rains, mudslides and flooding as seen this fall.

For example, Los Angeles could have 110 percent of normal rainfall and the Sierra and Southwest mountains will have the normal amount of snowfall which is good for skiers.

The Olympics

The Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia, from Feb.12 to 28 could be impacted by the lack of snow and cold weather this winter. It is possible that a dry and mild pattern will develop very near to or during the time of the Olympics.


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Offline Mike M

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2009, 10:18:45 PM »
Quote
Cities such as New York, Boston and Philadelphia could get up to 75 percent of their total snowfall in two or three big storms.

While some parts of the Appalachians did have harsh winter weather in the form of ice last year, this winter could be one of the snowiest since 2002-2003, when up to 80 inches fell in many places. Snowfall totals this year could reach between 50 and 100 inches in the Appalachians.
:thrilled:

phw115wvwx

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2009, 01:18:13 AM »
I always give this caution to anyone asking about El Niņo winters:  Be prepared to see some strange and wacky weather.  The entire jet stream pattern is altered, which shift storm tracks over unusual places everywhere.  While this forecast is based on what typically happens during an El Niņo, I emphasize that not every one always behaves exactly the same way.

Offline Anistorm

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2009, 01:38:28 AM »
The Western forecast reminds me of 2003 kinda. Storms entering from CA, moving and surviving inland until they leave the East. I've gotten some of those, and may (and hopefully) get some rain this winter.
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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2009, 02:26:45 AM »
I take anything from AccuWeather with a grain of salt but those forecasts match up with what I have been hearing. However as Patrick said, you never know what crazy things might happen

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2009, 07:39:09 AM »
I always give this caution to anyone asking about El Niņo winters:  Be prepared to see some strange and wacky weather.  The entire jet stream pattern is altered, which shift storm tracks over unusual places everywhere.  While this forecast is based on what typically happens during an El Niņo, I emphasize that not every one always behaves exactly the same way.

That's true, I posted their forecast since it was pretty similar to other forecasts I've seen. Also there's a met there named Frank Strait whose's a Southeast Weather expert, he said in his video blog that the lack of sunspot activity recently could mean maybe more cold air easily being pulled down south. He thinks that's something that should be monitored.


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Offline wxmediafan

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2009, 07:48:05 AM »
I agree with Martin on the whole Accuweather statement.  Although I do not despise Accuwx, but their forecasts do suck.  Unfortunitely,  my favorite station for news is powered by Accuwx (partly..but they do their own forecasts :D..but that's besides the point).

Patrick, you were mentioning "be prepared for wacky weather".  This seems to be happening already.  The areas in the plains that got hit with the snow storm this past weekend, are going to see 60's this week.  crazy.  Here, we've already seen our first snow, and the first freeze.  October is the 4th coldest month on record so far, with an average high of 46 degrees (give or take a few tenths of a degree).  So yes, I can see winter as being "wacky" this year.  I like winter, so I am hoping for a few major snowstorms :D

That's be great if this forecast came out for the South and the Mid Atlantic! (for the snowlovers..that is ;) )

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2009, 06:28:28 PM »
I've heard several analog winters being compared to this upcoming winter, one of them being the winter of 1976-1977. I checked January 1977 on Farmer's Almanac website and there were days that month where Atlanta only got up to 20 or 25 degrees and got down to 0 with snow and ice?!! I hope we have this winter! :D God knows we haven't had one in like 7 years, we've been in a snow drought for the longest.


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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2009, 03:02:29 AM »

Heres to a bad ass winter :dance:

Offline Mike M

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2009, 06:36:03 AM »
Cold? Snowy? Awesome! :D

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2009, 07:38:23 AM »
Yeah, I see another 06-07 winter happening for me though. Miserable, well below average snow, and mild. Everyone else here it seems should enjoy their winter :hmm:
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2009, 09:26:26 PM »
Looks like the GFS wants to play games with the NE for the first week of November bringing you guys snow. :P


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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2009, 08:02:48 PM »
That AccuWeather prediction map is already looking bad as parts of Wyoming and Colorado have picked up 3 feet of snow from an intense winter storm.  Denver is having one of the snowiest Octobers in their history, and blizzard warnings are currently in effect in northeastern Colorado.  It's going to be a wacky winter, folks.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2009, 08:14:36 PM »
That AccuWeather prediction map is already looking bad as parts of Wyoming and Colorado have picked up 3 feet of snow from an intense winter storm.  Denver is having one of the snowiest Octobers in their history, and blizzard warnings are currently in effect in northeastern Colorado.  It's going to be a wacky winter, folks.

True, the West is experiencing a wild and historic October, but technically it's not Winter so their map isn't looking all that bad yet.....


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Re: Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2009, 08:41:25 PM »
Its not winter yet... dont break my heart :P