Southeast Upper Level Low To Bring Snow?

[toxictwister00]

Yep, that's right, this isn't some sick, twisted joke of mine to pass a slow Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend. Some parts of the South could very well see some wraparound snow behind the system affecting the Arklatex right now. But I would also like to address the possibility of flooding for GA/N/SC/E. TN with this as well. These areas could also see some snow showers before all is said and done. As always, there's not much confidence on accumulations for those who can see some. The saying is true, "An Upper Level Low is a Weatherman's Woe." I know it's mine and I'm not even a professional met.  Is TWC talking much about this? I haven't watched them in a few days and I can't watch now because my niece is watching Spongebob on demand.

[toxictwister00]

Various NWS offices across the South addressing the possible wintry side of this ULL...

MEMPHIS, TN NWS

12Z WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS ALONG WITH THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATE
A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS
STILL LINGER WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SHORT TERM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ANY POTENTIAL
SNOW OR SLEET WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL ENCOUNTER VERY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WOULDN/T ANTICIPATE ANY DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
ASSESS THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AS THIS
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. STAY TUNED...

JACKSON, MS NWS

IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MS...LIFTING INTO THE EASTERN TN
VALLEY TUE. ARKLAMISS TEMP PROFILES ARE GOING TO PLUMMET AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS...WITH SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPS SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN
ZONES MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
VICINITY OF THE LOW WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ITS VERY
POSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES OF SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OVER AREAS NORTH
OF I-20 BOTH MON AND TUE MORNING.

NASHVILLE, TN NWS

THEN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY TURN
COLDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING
AN UPPER LOW WITH THE TRACK GENERALLY BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AL NE
THROUGH EASTERN TN TUESDAY MORNING. A REVIEW OF THE SOUNDING FCSTS
SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AREA. FURTHER
WEST...MORE IN THE WAY OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED. EVEN
BY UNDERCUTTING THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY 3F ACROSS THE BOARD...A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEST OF THE PLATEAU SEEMS MORE LIKELY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS. HOWEVER...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...THE LOWS APPARENT INTENSITY...AND THE 850 MB TEMP FIELDS...THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. DYNAMICAL COOLING IS
NOT PICKED UP VERY WELL WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHEN A CLOSED
LOW IS INVOLVED. WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY TO SEE IF THE MODELS
TREND TOWARD A COLDER AND SNOWIER SCENARIO IN UPCOMING RUNS.

HUNTSVILLE, AL NWS

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE CORE OF THE 5H MOVES OVER OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 8H
LOW SLUGGISHLY SITS OVER KY/TN. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RW/SW COULD OCCUR AFT 06Z TUE FROM THE SW-NE
AS THE COLD POCKET SHIFT E AND NE THRU THE REGION. SFC TEMPS MAY DROP
TO NEAR 32F ABV 1700 FT...WHILE VALLEYS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH ANY ACCUM ON GRASSY
AREAS. THIS CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK TO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED.

A SIGNIFICANT TROWAL (THETA-E RIDGE) WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS CORRIDOR MAY SLIP JUST TO OUR S. YOU CAN SEE
THE WARM NOSE ON SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY AS WELL.  WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ALL RAIN MOST
AREAS...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A LIGHT MIX AS IT WILL BE MARGINAL.
LINGERING PRECIP IS A TOUGH CALL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO THAT MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT AS WELL.

BIRMINGHAM, AL NWS

THE NEXT CHALLENGE/CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIP
MON NIGHT INTO TUE MRNG. MUCH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AS THE COLD CORE LOW DEEPENS AND PUSHES EWD ACROSS N AL SUN
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW 1000-500MB AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 530 DAM AND 1295 DAM RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...WITH NEAR SFC
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING THRU 06Z. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPS
DROP TO AT OR BELOW 3 DEGREES CELSIUS AFTER 06Z AND TEMPS QUICKLY
FALL BELOW ZERO ABOVE ABOUT 1500 FT. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEEING
ANY SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z TUE. WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS
OR SNOW SHOWERS WORDING IN FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THICKNESSES RISE
AFTER 15Z AS THE COLD CORE LOW EJECTS NE SO ANY REMAINING PRECIP IN
THE N/NE SHOULD RETURN TO A LIQUID STATE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AS GROUND TEMPS ARE JUST TOO WARM...NOT TO MENTION THE
FACT THAT THEY WILL ALSO BE RAIN SOAKED AS WELL. RIGHT NOW...THE
ONLY WAY I COULD SEE ANY SNOW STICKING WOULD BE IF THERE WERE A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN WOULD
NOT EXPECT MANY TRAVEL ISSUES AS IT SHOULD MELT RATHER QUICKLY.

ATLANTA, GA NWS

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 157 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2011/
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND
COMMENCING TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING ANY TYPE OF WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTH
AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE IT. COLD CORE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INSTABILITY DRIVEN LIGHT SHRA AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT -SNSH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER. SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH WARMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO GO BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS. STILL
HAVE A FEW DAYS ON THIS AND LOCATION AS WELL AS TIMING ARE SURE TO
BE REFINED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

[Trevor]

The Memphis NWS Office is now forecasting Rain/Snow tonight, little or no accumulations. Rain/Sleet tomorrow, Little or no accumulations, Rain/Sleet tomorrow night, accumulations of less than an inch possible.

[toxictwister00]

I forgot to mention this from this morning, but I see that TWC has rain/snow showers in the forecast for Tuesday here as well as the NWS which just updated it within the last hour. I personally don't expect much outside of that, which is great because any flakes would be awesome to wrap up late November, any dusting or more would be a bonus.

Also, it's really about time TWC/NWS finally updated their forecasts for Tuesday as they did today. I don't know how much longer I could take them dancing around all these hints of possible snow showers here while contradicting themselves by having rain in the forecast for the entire event. It's ok to be conservative when there's some uncertainty, but practically every model shows snow showers here in some form of fashion now.

[phw115wvwx]

Some areas in the Southeast may see their first real snow before most of the Mid Atlantic.  This situation happened last year, so it seems like we're going down the same path this winter as we did last time.

[TWCToday]

Very interesting system especially for this time of the year

[toxictwister00]

Very interesting system especially for this time of the year

Very much indeed. I love to watch ULLs evolve, they can be very unpredictable even as the event is unfolding over your area. Cold front came through around 9:30 this morning and temps have been steadily dropping, on average 3 degrees per hour. It's now 51 at Hartsfield Int'l Arpt. Next door to our west in AL, it's nothing but widespread 40s and upper 30s.

[toxictwister00]

Snow falling in Jackson, TN coating grassy areas.
http://lockerz.com/s/160347316

Haleyville, AL (NW of Birmingham, AL)

[toxictwister00]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...FAR NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 282151Z - 290145Z
   
   SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5-1 INCH PER HR /LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS/ ARE
   ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF WRN TN...FAR NERN AR...AND THE MO
   BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING.
   
   A CLOSED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NRN MS /PER
   RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP/ WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HRS...WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT LOBE ROTATING SWWD ALONG THE NWRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE MID-MS RIVER
   VALLEY. INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
   WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH WARM AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUDED
   LOW...WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 0.5-1 INCH PER HR.
   CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE A LARGE SWATH OF
   PRECIPITATION /PRIMARILY RAINFALL ATTM/ OVER THE REGION...WITH
   ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING SNOW AS OF 2100Z /E.G. KMKL/ WITHIN
   COLDER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES IN PROXIMITY TO THE
   DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. WITH TIME...NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE A TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER
   ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF WRN TN...AND EVENTUALLY TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
   W OF THE MS RIVER...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 11/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   35018848 35718820 36478902 36458959 36099002 35519028
               35179014 35028985 35018848