Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Feb. 24

[Mr. Rainman]

The severe weather season looks like it will get underway Thursday. The SPC 4-8 Day Outlook cites severe weather on Day 5 in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, North Louisiana, and West Tennessee.  Here's a portion of the synopsis:

UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A
SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

[Mr. Rainman]

Day 3 Convective Outlook. The highest risk area seems to be Arkansas.
MAP REMOVED

And the probabilities.
MAP REMOVED

[Mr. Rainman]

Day 2 Convective Outlook. MODERATE RISK for Arkansas and W. Tennessee.


Probabilities:

[Mr. Rainman]

From the Storm Prediction Center:

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FROM N TX INTO ERN OK
   BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND
   THREAT. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEMPER THE INITIAL THREAT OF
   TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...FIRST ACROSS AR THEN SPREADING NEWD
   ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. HERE...850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS
   EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH ENHANCED LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT.
   TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
   
   A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF
   THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
   OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY...THE MORE NRN ECMWF SOLUTION IS
   PREFERRED...BUT A SWD SHIFT IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD RESULT IN
   A COMPRESSION OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

[phw115wvwx]

A moderate risk from SPC out at day 2 is pretty significant.  We'll see what happens.  I can see why there's a concern as the models show a developing low pressure system for that region, and some important ingredients are coming into place.

[Mr. Rainman]

Yeah, things aren't looking good. I'm waiting for the second 2-day outlook to be released in ten minutes to see if anythings changed. If the warm front shifts north, by what I understand, the severe risk area increases.

[ilovestorms1]

Tonight: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 48. Calm wind becoming northeast between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Rain. Low around 32. North northeast wind between 9 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

No severe weather expected. I could be wrong though.

[Donovan]

Forecast earlier was 70% Chance or T-Storms Friday, now only 40%(im bummed).

[Mr. Rainman]

A line of tornado warnings are currently in effect along the Mississippi River.

[Lightning]

They just issued a tornado watch for my area.

[toxictwister00]

We were under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch & a Warning, the Watch was probably allowed to expire at it's set time of 5am this morning, I'm not sure because I fell back asleep after the rain slacked down some and I don't know when the warning expired either.