Severe Weather Season 2013

[Mr. Rainman]

A new year, a new season for severe weather! And it looks like we'll start off with a bang this year, as a fairly impressive trough sets up Tuesday across the Midwest with a lot of moisture and potential instability ahead of it - and if the forecast temperatures from NWS verify, we could be seeing quite a bit of it.

I'd say at least damaging winds and hail along with a few tornadoes with this. If all the parameters fall in place, those tornadoes could be strong/long-tracked. Looking at analog data, the set up looks to be quite similar to the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008.

I've attached 29/18Z of the 00Z GFS below.

[Localonthe8s]

Very interesting something to definitely keep a close eye for

[WeatherWitness]

Here is the SPC's current threat area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5, respectively).  Again, this is still pretty far out, so the threat area is likely to change.  But anyone in the highlighted areas needs to be on the lookout for potentially dangerous conditions.

[WeatherWitness]

Sorry for the double post, but here is SPC's highlighted threat area for Tuesday (Day 3), and then Wednesday (Day 4).  A widespread area will be affected, so please monitor any dangerous weather conditions.

[Mr. Rainman]

This continues to look like a dangerous situation for a large swath of the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states and then all the way up the East Coast. Please stay vigilant, everyone!

[Localonthe8s]

This continues to look like a dangerous situation for a large swath of the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states and then all the way up the East Coast. Please stay vigilant, everyone!

Do you think we'll see a setup that'll resemble the 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak?

[Trevor]

I'm thinking more of January 22, 2012. A repeat of Super Tuesday (2008) probably (and hopefully) won't happen again for a long time. That was a a horrible day.

[Mr. Rainman]

This continues to look like a dangerous situation for a large swath of the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states and then all the way up the East Coast. Please stay vigilant, everyone!

Do you think we'll see a setup that'll resemble the 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak?

Agree with Trevor. Both GFS and NAM are advertising a nasty squall line to rapidly move through Gulf Coast on Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday, so damaging winds definitely look like a big threat. The question still remains over the tornado threat - I'm not sure enough to say whether we will have discrete cells ahead of the main line (that would suggest a more significant event in regards to tornadoes). Since it's high shear/low CAPE event, the most likely scenario is embedded tornadoes within the line.

[toxictwister00]

I only see one of two (maybe both of the two) scenarios playing out for my area. Were gonna get E or ENE winds from the Atlantic ahead of the squall line, keeping us cool and stabilized to kill it off or some junk convection will develop in front of it preventing us from maxing out on diurnal heating and it'll weaken. It never fails. The only winter month that seems to materialize anything of significance is February (ironically the same month GA preps for Severe Weather Awareness Week). The nastiest one of the past 5 years was February 18, 2009. I don't recall The Super Tuesday 2008 Tornado Outbreak being too bad once it progressed our way. I remember AR/TN getting slammed the hardest that day though.

[toxictwister00]

Moderate Risk initiated for Tuesday

Code: [Select]

SPC AC 281730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN LA...CNTRL AND ERN
   AR...EXTREME SWRN TN AND NWRN TO WCNTRL MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...LOWER THROUGH MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TN AND OH
   VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL ADVANCE
   EWD...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
   LOCATED FROM MN THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. MID
   LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX LOCATED WITHIN BASE OF THE TROUGH
   SHOULD EJECT FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY
   TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD
   THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. A POLAR FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
   SFC LOW OVER IA SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
   A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH WRN TX. POLAR FRONT
   WILL ADVANCE SEWD DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE PACIFIC FRONT SURGES
   EWD AND MERGES WITH DRYLINE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY WITH
   DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS...ESPECIALLY DURING
   THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN MODERATE RISK AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
   RESERVOIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM CNTRL INTO SRN TX.
   SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALREADY EXISTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
   INTENSIFYING LLJ. WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY
   LAYER WARMING DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD
   ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR AND NRN MS BENEATH A
   PLUME OF 6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN AT LEAST
   500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE.
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
   ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK INTO NCNTRL/NERN TX EARLY TUESDAY AND SHIFT EWD
   AND NEWD DURING THE DAY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
   THROUGH ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG MERGING PACIFIC FRONT AND
   SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME SFC BASED. STORMS
   WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH A 50+ KT SLY LLJ
   AND MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 80 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   EVOLVE INTO A PREDOMINANT QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING
   SEGMENTS POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. TORNADO
   THREAT MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE RISK AREA
   WHERE LLJ INTENSIFYING TO IN EXCESS OF 70 KT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH
   NRN EDGE OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY REGION...
   
   OTHER STORMS WILL EXPAND NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SWRN
   PARTS OF OH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED...BUT
   SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH PRIMARY MODE BEING
   LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH MESO VORTICES. A FEW EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS AND
   STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR SUGGESTING A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/28/2013

[Mr. Rainman]

Tornado probabilities for today. Should start by daybreak and really ramp up by the afternoon.

[toxictwister00]

Looks like my thoughts from a few hours ago may have been terribly premature. It didn't look like much was going to happen, but that's certainly changing. Little Rock, AR is under a tornado warning right now as I type this.

[toxictwister00]

Well I'll be damned, this severe weather ain't playin' around. I got a few rough hours ahead for me. Tornado warnings flying up to my NW. I thought the morning rainfall was going to stabilize the atmosphere as it has in the past severe wx events, but this event is CLEARLY proving to me it's not weak-sauce for us GA folks.

There's already been a rather large tornado that touched down in Adarisville, GA to my NW where 1 fatality was reported unfortunately.

[toxictwister00]

Here's the Adairsville, GA tornado.

There's also several Youtube videos of it as well. Here's one of them from a reporter (Ross Cavitt) from our ABC affiliate WSB-TV  where he and his crew were filming it.

Video of Tornado forming directly infront of a reporter in Adairsville,Georgia - Latest Tornado news

[Localonthe8s]

Looks like an EF3 but that all depends on the damage it produced.