Severe Weather Season 2012

[toxictwister00]

Whoever the forecaster is who issued those warnings sure has been getting a lot of grief at other weather forums, he's been getting chewed out over this.

[phw115wvwx]

That warning violated the NWS Directives and goes against everything I've been trained to do.  You're not supposed to issue any severe thunderstorm, tornado, or flash flood warning that touches more than 12 counties.  The training I received at Norman recommended to do 5-10 at most.  That warning touched 30 counties, so an area about the size of Maryland heard it!  How is that warning a service to the public?  Furthermore, there wasn't anything in the warning worthy of having one in the first place.  They have no verification at all for it, which looks awful given how the NWS needs to keep their image good as they face budget cuts ahead from Congress.

Take a look at the radar image I've attached below.  Everyone in the Blacksburg office saw it and collectively went:

[toxictwister00]

A moderate risk has been added for Northeast SC, Eastern NC, and Southeastern Virginia today per Storm Prediction Center.

Tornado Watches are in effect for the following areas right now.

TOR WATCH #35
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA

TOR WATCH #36
NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

[Localonthe8s]

They need to fire the genius who posted that warning

[toxictwister00]

Pretty bad at Hartsfield Int'l right now

[toxictwister00]

I haven't been looking at any models for myself lately, but what  I'm hearing from other knowledgeable members (severe wx isn't really my expertise when it comes to the models) on other forums, I don't like what I'm hearing about severe wx this week. Sounds like it could  be insane, that puts a bad feeling in my stomach.

[Mr. Rainman]

Memphis is in the 10% tornado risk today. Looks like this low bringing heavy snow to the Dakotas and Minnesota in the next few days is gonna have a pretty impressive cold front with it. Looks like a decent tornado risk, and an even better strong wind risk.

[Mr. Rainman]

Big severe weather day. Moderate risk out with a 15% chance of tornadoes and a 45% chance of damaging winds for all of Tennessee.

[Mr. Rainman]

March 2nd is going to be a very interesting day for the same regions affected yesterday: there is a moderate risk out stretching from Alabama into the Ohio Valley, with a huge 45% severe probability. Very strong wind events and significant and long-tracked tornadoes could be the name of the game. This is certainly a system to keep an eye on.

[toxictwister00]

TOR CON Numbers from Dr. Forbes

Friday  March 2
AL north - 6
AL central  night - 4
AR northeast - 3
GA north night - 3
IL south - 4
IN south - 5
KY central - 8
KY west - 5
KY east - 6
LA north - 3
LA central, southeast night - 3
MO southeast - 3 to 4
MS north - 5
MS central night - 3
NC west night - 3
OH - 3
Southern OH - 4
TN north-central - 8
TN west - 4
TN east - 6
TN south-central - 6
WV west - 4
Other areas - less than 2

[toxictwister00]

HIGH Risk has been added via SPC

KY and Central TN are the battlezone.



EDIT: Not that this is surprising, but a lot of schools are either closed or dismissing early today across KY, TN, and AL.

[toxictwister00]

And so the action begins....two tornado warnings out and a new tornado watch out for NE AL/NW GA/E. TN

[toxictwister00]

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #57



SEL7
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 57
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   955 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
          WESTERN KENTUCKY
          SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL 600
   PM CST.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
   GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES NORTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...
   
   DISCUSSION...A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS
   NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR...FEATURING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500
   J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600
   M2/S2.  TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER SERN
   MO/W-CNTRL IL ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

[toxictwister00]

Updated TOR: CON Numbers

Friday March 2
AL north - 7
AL central, southwest night - 4
GA north - 5
GA central night - 4
IL south - 8
IN south half - 8
KY central, east - 9
KY west - 4
LA northeast, central - 3
LA south night - 3
MO southeast - 4
MS north - 7
MS central - 5
MS south night - 3
NC west - 5
NC central night - 3 to 4
OH south - 8
OH central, northeast - 3 to 4
PA west - 3 to 4 evening/night
SC west, central - 3 to 4
TN middle, east - 9
TN west - 4
VA southwest - 5
VA central night - 3 to 4
WV west, central - 4 to 5
other areas - less than 2

Tornado Watch #59 (Not a PDS)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0059.html

[Localonthe8s]

Is there a TorCon index for NJ? We're under the severe weather zone (as well as PA) too