Severe Weather Season 2012

[WeatherWitness]

Unfortunately, for those that thought the 2012 severe weather season couldn't possibly be as bad as last year's, you may want to think again.  As Patrick said, coming out of another La Nina winter is really going to trigger the storms.  And it's only January!

[Pop Light Brown]

Several tornadoes were confirmed in central Alabama, including an EF3 near Koffman in Tuscaloosa County.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BMX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

More surveys are being conducted today.

[WeatherWitness]

*Severe Threat for the Deep South today*

I think the primary "threat" will be heavy rainfall (which we desperately need, so bring it on!), but we may need to watch out for some hail and tornadoes.

[Pop Light Brown]

Tornado Watch 15 is in effect until 3 pm for a good chunk of western Louisiana and extreme SE Texas. I would not be surprised if additional watches were issued later this evening for areas east of this watch box.

[Pop Light Brown]

Tornado Watch 16 is in effect for nearly all of Louisiana, SE Arkansas and western/SW Mississippi until 9 pm CST.

[Mr. Rainman]

Possibly the severe thunderstorm warning with the longest "affect areas" paragraph I have ever seen. O_O

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SIMMESPORT...MOREAUVILLE...BUNKIE...
EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...VILLE PLATTE...TURKEY CREEK...MAMOU...BASILE...
SOUTHERN RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...GLENMORA...CHENEYVILLE...
ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...MORROW...BAYOU CURRENT...PALMETTO...OPELOUSAS...
LEONVILLE...EUNICE...
WESTERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...RAYNE...MERMENTAU...IOTA...CROWLEY...CHURCH
POINT...
ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...REEVES...OBERLIN...OAKDALE...MITTIE...KINDER...
ELIZABETH...
EASTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SUGARTOWN...RAGLEY...DRY CREEK...
CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT...WESTLAKE...
VINTON...SULPHUR...MOSS BLUFF...LAKE CHARLES...IOWA...HAYES...DE
QUINCY...
CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE...SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE...LACASSINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...KLONDIKE...GRAND
LAKE...
JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...JENNINGS...FENTON...ELTON...
WESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...PECAN ISLAND...KAPLAN...GUEYDAN...
SOUTHEASTERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES PITKIN...

[Donovan]

Impressive Cell out in Kansas tonight. 70+dbz on reflective and some rotation.

[Localonthe8s]

Interesting how Rayne is mentioned In the warning. That place got trashed by a deadly tornado last year

[toxictwister00]

Watch coming soon...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MS...THE NRN HALF OF AL...PARTS OF SRN
   TN...NWRN GA...FAR WRN NC
   
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
   
   VALID 222013Z - 222215Z
   
   CORRECTED TO CHANGE NS TO MS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED HEADLINE
   
   CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PAIRED WITH SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES REVEAL A CLEARLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...BENEATH
   WHAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUES TO WARM/SLOWLY MOISTEN...THE EWD SPREAD OF COOLER
   AIR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
   NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
   DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   WHILE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
   DISCERN -- AND THUS LOCATION OF A CONCENTRATED THREAT AREA REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN...INCREASINGLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS
   PROVIDING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING
   STORMS.  THIS -- AND THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS --
   SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
   ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG
   WITH SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.
   
   ATTM...CU FIELD APPEARS MOST ROBUST ACROSS NERN MS AND EWD ACROSS
   NRN AL AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  WITH THIS AREA ON THE NRN
   FRINGE OF THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND NEAR THE SRN
   BOUNDARY OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSING
   WAVE...THIS AREA APPEARS ATTM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY INITIATION ZONE
   FOR INITIAL CONVECTION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 02/22/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   32728894 32918977 33399003 34588919 35638555 35588375
               34828331 32988640 32688806 32728894

[Zach]

Okay, where's the severe weather in this one?!

Code: [Select]

WUUS54 KMRX 222255
SVRMRX
TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-073-089-093-
105-107-121-123-129-143-145-151-153-155-163-171-173-179-222345-
/O.NEW.KMRX.SV.W.0003.120222T2255Z-120222T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
555 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  BLEDSOE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  CARTER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  COCKE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  GRAINGER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  HAMBLEN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  HANCOCK COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  HAWKINS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  LOUDON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  MEIGS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  RHEA COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  SEQUATCHIE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  SEVIER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME WESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  UNICOI COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  UNION COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 645 PM EST/545 PM CST/

* AT 546 PM EST/446 PM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
  INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
  BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE
  STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF SNEEDVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF MCMINNVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
  65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...ROGERSVILLE...CLINTON...ROCKWOOD...OAK
  RIDGE...MORRISTOWN...KINGSTON...JEFFERSON CITY...PIKEVILLE...
  KNOXVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...LENOIR CITY...DANDRIDGE...DAYTON...
  LOUDON...GREENEVILLE...ELIZABETHTON...ALCOA AND SEVIERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8549 3577 8525 3576 8500 3583 8477
      3593 8469 3608 8480 3660 8295 3624 8195
      3600 8262 3606 8264 3595 8279 3523 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 292DEG 57KT 3653 8295 3576 8563

$$


[Trevor]

I was just looking at that. It could be a blanket warning (issued way in advance), or somebody really screwed up. The NWS in Morristown really hasn't specified just yet.

[Zach]

I was just looking at that. It could be a blanket warning (issued way in advance), or somebody really screwed up. The NWS in Morristown really hasn't specified just yet.

I'm under the speculation that an untrained forecaster issued that warning.. it wasn't signed, it expired with areas not getting rain at all, it included 30 counties (3x the recommended!), and it took them 9 minutes to execute actions?

[toxictwister00]

Severe T'Storm/Tornado Watch Still Possible for TN & AL

via SPC (Storm Prediction Center) Mesoscale Discussion 143

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012
   
  AREAS AFFECTED...NE AL...SE TN...FAR NW AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
   
   VALID 222349Z - 230115Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS FROM MIDDLE TO ERN TN SWD ACROSS NRN AL AND FAR NW GA.
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF
   INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES FROM 250 TO 750
   J/KG. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   WITH WSR-88D-VWPS SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 70 TO 80 KT. THIS
   COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO
   7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
   CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. EWD STORM MOTION OF 40 KT WILL HELP
   CREATE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE BECOMES NEARLY
   CONTINUOUS. SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
   EXIST ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AND
   THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/22/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35928438 36378455 36558536 35888624 34918734 34258779
               33898760 33648692 33748625 34138579 34718521 35348467
               35928438

[toxictwister00]

Looking at this DP loop, DPs in the mid 50s to low 60s are starting to move northward so this cap over the SE/TN Valley should start breaking over the next couple of hours now that were getting more moisture involved. Heck, if were not gonna get any snow this winter, I guess we might as well see some thunderstorms. That's about the only thing we have seen an abundance of this winter.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/loopsh.php?based=wxproducts/surface/dewpoint&loopid=Dewpoint+Temperature

[Donovan]

Okay, where's the severe weather in this one?!

Code: [Select]

WUUS54 KMRX 222255
SVRMRX
TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-073-089-093-
105-107-121-123-129-143-145-151-153-155-163-171-173-179-222345-
/O.NEW.KMRX.SV.W.0003.120222T2255Z-120222T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
555 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  BLEDSOE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  CARTER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  COCKE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  GRAINGER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  HAMBLEN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  HANCOCK COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  HAWKINS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  LOUDON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  MEIGS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  RHEA COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  SEQUATCHIE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  SEVIER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME WESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  UNICOI COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  UNION COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 645 PM EST/545 PM CST/

* AT 546 PM EST/446 PM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
  INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
  BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE
  STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF SNEEDVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF MCMINNVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
  65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...ROGERSVILLE...CLINTON...ROCKWOOD...OAK
  RIDGE...MORRISTOWN...KINGSTON...JEFFERSON CITY...PIKEVILLE...
  KNOXVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...LENOIR CITY...DANDRIDGE...DAYTON...
  LOUDON...GREENEVILLE...ELIZABETHTON...ALCOA AND SEVIERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8549 3577 8525 3576 8500 3583 8477
      3593 8469 3608 8480 3660 8295 3624 8195
      3600 8262 3606 8264 3595 8279 3523 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 292DEG 57KT 3653 8295 3576 8563

$$


Oh wow! That was probably a forecaster error or a computer error. Look's like they may have been trying to issue and advisory for the storms and selected the wrong tool.  (HA)