Severe Weather Season 2011/Severe Wx thread

[TWCmatthew]

Wow, I'm looking at a potentially major severe weather outbreak from Monday to Wednesday of next week.

Monday: Plains
Tuesday: Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, MS Valley
Wednesday: Lower/Eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, East Coast

[Donovan]

Wow, I'm looking at a potentially major severe weather outbreak from Monday to Wednesday of next week.

Monday: Plains
Tuesday: Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, MS Valley
Wednesday: Lower/Eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, East Coast

I see this. hmmm... Maybe we should wait a couple of days before we decide if its a threat or not, 5-6days is a little to far to tell. I see a strange thing on GFS that will happen here around, maybe a front will come from the north sometime this/next week instead of the usual west direction. BTW: What model forecast were you looking at?

[TWCmatthew]

Wow, I'm looking at a potentially major severe weather outbreak from Monday to Wednesday of next week.

Monday: Plains
Tuesday: Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, MS Valley
Wednesday: Lower/Eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, East Coast

I see this. hmmm... Maybe we should wait a couple of days before we decide if its a threat or not, 5-6days is a little to far to tell. I see a strange thing on GFS that will happen here around, maybe a front will come from the north sometime this/next week instead of the usual west direction. BTW: What model forecast were you looking at?

I was looking at the GFS Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) model.

[Donovan]

Wow, I'm looking at a potentially major severe weather outbreak from Monday to Wednesday of next week.

Monday: Plains
Tuesday: Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, MS Valley
Wednesday: Lower/Eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, East Coast

I see this. hmmm... Maybe we should wait a couple of days before we decide if its a threat or not, 5-6days is a little to far to tell. I see a strange thing on GFS that will happen here around, maybe a front will come from the north sometime this/next week instead of the usual west direction. BTW: What model forecast were you looking at?

I was looking at the GFS Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) model.

Well CAPE is one thing, you have to look and see if there is going to be precip there also.

[TWCmatthew]

Wow, I'm looking at a potentially major severe weather outbreak from Monday to Wednesday of next week.

Monday: Plains
Tuesday: Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, MS Valley
Wednesday: Lower/Eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, East Coast

I see this. hmmm... Maybe we should wait a couple of days before we decide if its a threat or not, 5-6days is a little to far to tell. I see a strange thing on GFS that will happen here around, maybe a front will come from the north sometime this/next week instead of the usual west direction. BTW: What model forecast were you looking at?

I was looking at the GFS Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) model.

Well CAPE is one thing, you have to look and see if there is going to be precip there also.

Yes, I checked the precip levels as well. There definately will be some precip, but activity might be scattered.

[Donovan]

Wow, I'm looking at a potentially major severe weather outbreak from Monday to Wednesday of next week.

Monday: Plains
Tuesday: Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, MS Valley
Wednesday: Lower/Eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, East Coast

I see this. hmmm... Maybe we should wait a couple of days before we decide if its a threat or not, 5-6days is a little to far to tell. I see a strange thing on GFS that will happen here around, maybe a front will come from the north sometime this/next week instead of the usual west direction. BTW: What model forecast were you looking at?

I was looking at the GFS Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) model.

Well CAPE is one thing, you have to look and see if there is going to be precip there also.

Yes, I checked the precip levels as well. There definately will be some precip, but activity might be scattered.

Oh Okay Good. It looks like the Plains will get several waves of severe in the next week or so. The general patter is once the storms get as east as you and I they loose their severity. Which sucks.

[Donovan]

Its not too often that the hook echo is on the north side of a cell. Several cells tonight in SC have looked like this, odd. Can someone explain why they look like this?

[phw115wvwx]

Its not too often that the hook echo is on the north side of a cell. Several cells tonight in SC have looked like this, odd. Can someone explain why they look like this?

It makes perfect sense that the hook is there if the storm is moving south-southeast.   Don't always go by the classic textbook version which has the storm moving west to east with the hook on the southern end.  Storms can move in any direction based on wind shear, boundaries, and conditions aloft.

[Donovan]

Its not too often that the hook echo is on the north side of a cell. Several cells tonight in SC have looked like this, odd. Can someone explain why they look like this?

It makes perfect sense that the hook is there if the storm is moving south-southeast.   Don't always go by the classic textbook version which has the storm moving west to east with the hook on the southern end.  Storms can move in any direction based on wind shear, boundaries, and conditions aloft.

Ah. Thanks Patrick.

[phw115wvwx]

Today was a historic day for me as a meteorologist.  I issued my first five live warnings of my career.  Quoted below was my first ever live warning, which verified a half hour later with several reports of trees down and quarter-sized hail.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
207 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011 
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A 
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... 
  SOUTHEASTERN WYTHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 
  CITY OF GALAX IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 
  NORTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 
  WESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 
 
* UNTIL 245 PM EDT. 
 
* AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND 
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
  FRIES...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 
 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE 
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD 
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... 
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. 
 
WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF QUARTER OR 
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE 
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT... 
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. 
 
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY 
EVENING FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. 
 
LAT...LON 3663 8119 3680 8119 3688 8067 3665 8065 
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 261DEG 11KT 3673 8093 
 
PW

[Donovan]

Congratulations Patrick! 

[Mr. Rainman]

Ha ha! Patrick, that's brilliant! Fantastic, fantastic job! I'm sure I speak for all the forum when I say congratulations on achieving this major milestone!

[Lightning]

Here in Alabama, people are still very much on edge from the tornadoes of April 27th.

Here is a video of the Tuscaloosa tornado of the 27th: Very scary. 

4/27/11 - Tuscaloosa Tornado

[Lightning]

Joplin, Missouri has now been hit by a mile-wide multiple vortex tornado and the scene looks very and eerily similar to Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Numerous fatalities and injuries in Joplin. Not even the hospital was spared. Fires are breaking out in the rubble.

[Donovan]

Cool video I found today. Didn't want to start a new topic, so i'll post it here. Nice time lapse of severe thunderstorms. Notice the movement of the stars(earths actually the one moving), still cool video.

Night Thunderstorm Timelapse, 9/10/09