Severe Weather Season 2011/Severe Wx thread

[Donovan]

Several of the Severe T-storm warned cells in SE Georgia and S. South Carolina appear to be hook echoing every now and then with detected rotation. Already had one tornado warning since I've been live @ 2:00pm EDT for Pierce County, GA. I'm now under a severe thunderstorm watch here in Moncks Corner, and early this morning we had a severe thunderstorm that was producing heavy rain and a whole lot of lightning.

EDIT: Now seeing some TVS on the aforementioned cells. Most of the cells in the low country of SC

[Mr. Rainman]

You guys are never gonna believe this. The Storm Prediction Center storm report shows a wind gust at Belle Chasse, Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana. The recorded speed at the local government office?

100 mph.

[Mr. Rainman]

It looks like another storm may earn its own thread, but for now, I'll hold off. A very rare Day 3 Moderate risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. As I understand it, Day 3 Moderate Risks are very rare, occurring less than ten times in the history of the SPC.

Just so you know, for Day 3, Moderate is the highest risk you can have.
 

[ilovestorms1]

Get your weather radios on guys, this is a really bad potential.

   SEL0
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 120
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   320 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
          PARTS OF WESTERN NORTHERN MICHIGAN
          SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
          MUCH OF WISCONSIN
          LAKE SUPERIOR
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
   1100 PM CDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
   IRONWOOD MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
   IMMINENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WI/MN BORDER INTO NERN IA.  AIR
   MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES TO 2000
   J/KG...COUPLED WITH A VERY INTENSE WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
   OF BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS  WITH ANY SUPERCELL.  THERE IS
   THE THREAT OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH STRONG/DAMAGING
   TORNADOES.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
   
   
   ...HALES

[Lightning]

I am glad I am not up in Wisconsin, but I hope the people who live there are well prepared and will be all right. I am fascinated by these storms, but when there is a PDS Tornado Watch, that makes me afraid.  I hope the tornadoes that do occur will be in remote areas and not densely populated areas. I have relatives in northern Illinois in the western Chicago suburbs and am concerned about them.

[Lightning]

A line of severe storms just moved through my area. We had to go to the basement, due to a tornado warning that included my immediate area and based on damage reports mainly due to straight line winds. I saw the shelf cloud as the storm approached. Lots of lightning and some wind. On our way down to the basement, my mother hurt her foot by slipping and falling on the next to last step.

[Donovan]

A line of severe storms just moved through my area. We had to go to the basement, due to a tornado warning that included my immediate area and based on damage reports mainly due to straight line winds. I saw the shelf cloud as the storm approached. Lots of lightning and some wind. On our way down to the basement, my mother hurt her foot by slipping and falling on the next to last step.

Must have been terrifying, hope she is alright.

[phw115wvwx]

Back on April 8, residents of a county just 25 miles to my southwest experienced their first two tornadoes in at least 50 years.  It caused 8 minor injuries, but damage is estimated to be around $8.5 million.  I've never seen a tornado in person, but this event marks the closest I've ever been to a significant one.  Here's the results of that storm survey if you're interested in finding out more:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/events/2011/April_8th_Tornadoes/pns.txt

[Lightning]

There's not another chance of severe weather for my area Friday, is there?

[Mr. Rainman]

Sorry to break it to you, but you look like you're gonna get another dose of severe storms on Friday.

[phw115wvwx]

Sorry to break it to you, but you look like you're gonna get another dose of severe storms on Friday.

I could be seeing those storms on Saturday in my area.

[Eric]

For the past few days we were forecast to get thunderstorms every night, with possibilities as high as 40%.  Not only did we not get thunderstorms, but we barely even got any raindrops at all to speak of.

The last thunder we had here was a couple of freak episodes of thundersnow in the middle of winter.  But I want a real, good ol'-fashioned thunderstorm.  Not anything that's going to destroy houses or kill people, but just strong enough to keep me entertained for a while. 

[Donovan]

For the past few days we were forecast to get thunderstorms every night, with possibilities as high as 40%.  Not only did we not get thunderstorms, but we barely even got any raindrops at all to speak of.

The last thunder we had here was a couple of freak episodes of thundersnow in the middle of winter.  But I want a real, good ol'-fashioned thunderstorm.  Not anything that's going to destroy houses or kill people, but just strong enough to keep me entertained for a while. 

Don't get your hopes up when its 40%. Usually takes >60% To get them.

[Lightning]

I hope it will just be straight line winds and then get out of here.

[Mr. Rainman]

Just read the Day 2 Convective Outlook, and again, you'll probably be getting much more than that. If the updated Convective Outlook looks even worse, then I'm gonna post a new topic.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
   MID-MS VALLEY...CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST STATES...SRN APPALACHIAN
   MTNS AND OH VALLEY...
   
   ...TORNADO OUTBREAK BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CNTRL
   GULF COAST STATES ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS. THE EXIT REGION OF A 75
   TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL GULF STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON CREATING VERY
   FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER A BROAD
   AREA. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   FRIDAY MORNING IN AL AND MIDDLE TN WITH THIS CONVECTION BEING
   SHUNTED EWD AWAY FROM THE MODERATE RISK AREA AROUND MIDDAY. AS THIS
   OCCURS...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY FROM WRN TN SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MS. THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA LATE FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES
   FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN CNTRL MS TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS WRN
   KY AND WRN TN. THIS IS COMBINED WITH 55 TO 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   WITH TORNADOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE 400 TO 500 M2/S2 WITH LOOPING
   HODOGRAPHS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MS AND WRN AL SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL
   FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST. 500 MB TEMPS ARE
   FORECAST TO BE FROM -12C IN SRN MS AND SRN AL TO -16C IN WRN TO
   MIDDLE TN. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO
   BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY IN ERN MS AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
   AFTERNOON WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
   DISCRETE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED EARLY IN THE EVENT...LINEAR
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING
   WITH A SQUALL-LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. DISCRETE STORMS
   AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE
   EVENING.
   
   ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED
   OVER KY AND TN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL STILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH IN MS AND AL BUT THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE MAY BE FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER
   CONCERN IS FOR THE SRN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK. MODEL FORECASTS
   DIFFER ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE NAM ISOLATED BUT THE ECMWF
   DEVELOPS NUMEROUS STORMS. IN SPITE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL ISSUE
   A MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DUE TO
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END EVENT.