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Author Topic: Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?  (Read 4157 times)

Offline ruhgster

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Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?
« on: February 04, 2009, 12:59:50 PM »
From the SPC, they are looking at severe weather across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas on Sunday and Monday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/.  Word around the office this morning is we may see some this far north as Omaha.  I'm not sold on it at all, based on our forecast highs and the fact that it is February.  We may see enough instability for storms, and maybe even some hail based on our temps, but so far I'm not sold at all on seeing severe storms here, I think they're "wishcasting".
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Offline Lightning86

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Re: Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2009, 06:26:37 PM »
Quote from: ruhgster on February 04, 2009, 12:59:50 PM
From the SPC, they are looking at severe weather across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas on Sunday and Monday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/.  Word around the office this morning is we may see some this far north as Omaha.  I'm not sold on it at all, based on our forecast highs and the fact that it is February.  We may see enough instability for storms, and maybe even some hail based on our temps, but so far I'm not sold at all on seeing severe storms here, I think they're "wishcasting".

Have you ever thought that severe weather can happen anytime of the year?
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Offline ruhgster

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Re: Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2009, 06:50:25 PM »
Yes I know it happens any time of the year.
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Offline ruhgster

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Re: Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2009, 07:32:01 AM »
Like I said, I'm just not sold on the severe weather threat..yet...I didn't say I'm calling it impossible.  I will say though that it looks like we'll have a warm front coming through, along which there is a small chance we may see some mini-supercells, in which case I would be sold on it.  It would be neat to see a tornado or two from one of these as long as they stay in fields where there are no crops right now anyway, February is the only month Nebraska has never had a reported tornado.
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Offline ruhgster

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Re: Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2009, 09:18:25 AM »
The latest day 4-8 outlook from the SPC is keeping the same areas in the severe weather threat, maybe moved a little farther south (note that this is still a few days out and only the areas where they have decent confidence for that far away, it WILL change at least somewhat).  If you read farther into the text, although it is not painted on the map yet, there is a chance of a bigger severe weather outbreak next Wednesday somewhere in the central US.  I don't know if this will be as bad, but remember there was the big outbreak in early February (Super Tuesday) which led into a busy severe weather season, and La Nina looks to be strong again this year which is highly correlated with tornado outbreaks.  It may be another interesting spring/early summer.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2009, 09:20:39 AM by ruhgster »
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Offline ruhgster

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Re: Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?
« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2009, 02:14:57 PM »
Right now the GFS is tracking this next system (Wednesday) through basically the same regions that are under the greatest severe threat for Sunday and Monday.  On the north side of the storm here in Nebraska, we may finally get our first real snowstorm of the season.
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Offline ruhgster

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Re: Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2009, 11:44:58 AM »
SPC has the Texas panhandle under the gun Sunday, biggest threat with this is wind, with a smaller chance of hail, and tornadoes can't be completely ruled out either.  I think the threat will push north and east Monday, as far north as central Kansas.  As for the possible outbreak Wednesdayish, there is still a lot of uncertainty with this so SPC is not ready to highlight any certain area yet, but it looks to be close to the same areas being affected by this first storm, according to the latest GFS.  This is still a long time away and a there is a lot of uncertainty forecasting wise so we'll have to wait and see if this possible outbreak even happens or not.

I'm still not expecting anything severe this far north, we just aren't expecting the daytime heating and instability that locations farther south will have, although we will have a high amount of shear, so mini supercells in eastern Nebraska and SW Iowa can't be completely ruled out.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2009, 11:48:22 AM by ruhgster »
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Offline ruhgster

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Re: Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2009, 03:21:04 PM »
Tomorrow looks to be a fairly active severe weather day for parts of Oklahoma and Texas into Arkansas and Louisiana.  Hail and possibly strong tornadoes are possible tomorrow and tomorrow night.
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Offline ruhgster

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Re: Severe Thundertorms Southern/Central Plains Early Next Week?
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2009, 08:58:14 AM »
Unfortunately the severe weather came and there were at least 8 fatalities in Oklahoma yesterday.  Today the threat shifts eastward, from Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia all the way northward to Indiana, Ohio, and Pensylvania, with strong winds and a couple tornadoes the main threats.  However, it does not look to be as violent of storms and as much of an outbreak as what was seen in Oklahoma yesterday.  What may be more of a problem is the non-thunderstorm winds some of these areas should see today.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2009, 09:13:02 AM by ruhgster »
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