Blizzard for New England 2013

[gt1racerlHDl]

Updated Snow Potential map for Massachusetts

[TWCToday]

I'll be in Boston before noon tomorrow

[gt1racerlHDl]

I'll be in Boston before noon tomorrow

Darn, Fall River is 50 miles south of Boston 

Blizzard Warning now up in MA, RI, CT and NY

[Localonthe8s]

Do u know how many inches of snow central NJ will get?

[toxictwister00]

Do u know how many inches of snow central NJ will get?

According to the NWS, 6-10 inches.

Blizzard Warnings were extended to include the NYC metro area.

[Mr. Rainman]

Looks like NWS is expecting the heaviest snow from Connecticut northeastwards with totals up to 2 feet in those areas. Areas south look to get up to 15 with isolated higher totals.

Boston is gonna get slammed.

[TWCCraig]

Totals for me

18z GFS: 10-18"
18z NAM: 24-30"
12z Euro: 20-28"
12z NNM: 24-30"
15z SREF Mean: 15-20"

And yet, I don't see how people are still forecasting less than 10" here considering the Euro, which has 2ft for me, has been the best with this storm.

[Mr. Rainman]

Totals for me

18z GFS: 10-18"
18z NAM: 24-30"
12z Euro: 20-28"
12z NNM: 24-30"
15z SREF Mean: 15-20"

And yet, I don't see how people are still forecasting less than 10" here considering the Euro, which has 2ft for me, has been the best with this storm.

Some people might be going off climatology or taking into account prior events when making their forecasts. I'm usually hesitant to go on models alone. I expect New York to see probably about a foot, maybe 15 inches.

I have put up a 24 hour radar stream that I will have up until the event is over, if anyone wants quick access to regional radar.
http://livestre.am/1bys2

EDIT:

Snowfall forecast for select cities. Part of a text forecast I did for my website before replacing it with something more user friendly.

BOSTON MA...20-26"
CONCORD NH...12-18"
HARTFORD CT...14-20"
NEWARK NJ...10-16"
NEW YORK NY...10-16"
PORTLAND ME...12-18"
PROVIDENCE RI...24-30"

[WeatherWitness]

Totals for me

18z GFS: 10-18"
18z NAM: 24-30"
12z Euro: 20-28"
12z NNM: 24-30"
15z SREF Mean: 15-20"

And yet, I don't see how people are still forecasting less than 10" here considering the Euro, which has 2ft for me, has been the best with this storm.

A future tip when forecasting:

Never rely solely on models.

[gt1racerlHDl]

TWC has my area in the 18-24" range.

[Localonthe8s]

Do u know how many inches of snow central NJ will get?

According to the NWS, 6-10 inches.

Blizzard Warnings were extended to include the NYC metro area.

Not bad. I would expect to see 6 inches at the least.

And why did they choose the name Nemo? Are they serious of all names to use they decide to name a blizzard after a fish?

[toxictwister00]

Do u know how many inches of snow central NJ will get?

According to the NWS, 6-10 inches.

Blizzard Warnings were extended to include the NYC metro area.

Not bad. I would expect to see 6 inches at the least.

And why did they choose the name Nemo? Are they serious of all names to use they decide to name a blizzard after a fish?

I'm pretty sure they had no control over Nemo being the next name to follow on the list for this storm. I wonder if they played a game of Polo with the computer models to find him? He's been missing for 10 years. (Yeah, yeah, I know lame joke.) Someone had to do it eventually.

[TWCCraig]

A future tip when forecasting:

Never rely solely on models.

I know. From past events and climatology, this is easily over 12" for the area. Some analogs for this storm are the great blizzards of 1983 and 2006. I try not to model hug. Latest 4km NAM has 9" QPF amounts on the jersey shore, next to impossible.

[Localonthe8s]

I'm looking at the current GFS model and it has the storm shifting slightly east.

[TWCCraig]

I'm looking at the current GFS model and it has the storm shifting slightly east.

I would toss it. It initialized bad. The NAM did a better job initializing. The MM5 looks really good. It nailed the Boxing Day Blizzard and Feb 2006. Let's see what the Euro can spit out.