TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => General Weather Chat => Topic started by: Mr. Rainman on October 25, 2010, 06:02:32 PM
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The convective outlook for Tuesday. Much of the U.S. east of the Mississippi is facing some serious weather.
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif)
To give a simplified picture, the probability of severe weather impacting the area.
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif)
From Wikipedia: A moderate risk day indicates that more widespread and/or more dangerous severe weather is possible (sometimes with major hurricanes), with significant severe weather often more likely. Numerous tornadoes (including some strong tornadoes), more widespread or severe wind damage and very large/destructive hail could occur. Major events, such as large tornado outbreaks, are sometimes also possible on moderate risk days, but with greater uncertainty. Outbreaks on moderate risk days are not uncommon and typically occur several times a year, especially during peak season. A slight risk area typically surrounds a moderate risk area, where the threat is lower.
Check this thread tomorrow for more detailed information. Stay safe, people!
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Wind appears to be the biggest threat for tomorrow. You certainly don't see moderate risks by SPC often when it's this late in the year. Stay safe if you find yourself in a line of storms tomorrow!
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URGENT UPDATE: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.gif)
Mainly a wind threat.
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_0100_wind.gif)
All of this severe weather is being triggered by a massive low pressure system with estimated barometric pressures of 960-970 mb (28.35 - 28.65 inches) near its center in Canada. High winds and very severe storms will affect the Northern Plains Tuesday afternoon, and by Tuesday night, several inches of snow and even blizzard-like conditions will exist in North Dakota. This storm, as the Weather Channel puts it, could be the biggest fall storm in 10 to 20 years.
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Tornado Watch 719 has been issued. Here is all the counties it covers. In effect until 6:00 AM CDT.
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0719_overview.gif)
Tornadoes and highly severe wind are the primary threats.
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There are a Tornado Watch and High Wind Warning in effect.
Issued by The National Weather Service
Chicago, IL
3:37 am CDT, Tue., Oct. 26, 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 720 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS
LIVINGSTON
IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FORD IROQUOIS
IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
COOK DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE IL MCHENRY WILL
IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
BENTON JASPER LAKE IN NEWTON PORTER
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... AURORA... CHICAGO... FOWLER... GARY... JOLIET... KANKAKEE... MOROCCO... MORRIS... OSWEGO... PIPER CITY... PONTIAC... RENSSELAER... VALPARAISO... WATSEKA... WAUKEGAN... WHEATON AND WOODSTOCK.
Issued by The National Weather Service
Chicago, IL
4:07 am CDT, Tue., Oct. 26, 2010
... HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
* TIMING... THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
* WINDS... WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH... WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
* IMPACTS... NON SECURE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE. FALLING TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY... WITH TRAFFIC SIGNALS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DELAYS. TRAVEL WILL ALSO BECOME DIFFICULT... WITH HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES BECOMING DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.
&&
More Information
... DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TODAY...
Today is the 26th, not the 25th.
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The risk for severe thunderstorms has significantly increased over the last couple of hours. A very rare High Risk day is in effect. Here is the convective outlook.
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif)
The chance of tornadoes:
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif)
The chance of hail:
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif)
And the chance of wind:
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif)
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And finally, the Public Severe Weather Outlook and a definition from Wikipedia:
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER
PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
EASTERN ILLINOIS
INDIANA
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES
A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 175
MILES PER HOUR...WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT ACCELERATES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TODAY...AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE VERY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...WILL
ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO BANDS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
WHILE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE DAY TODAY OVER THE OH AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...A MORE
LIMITED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
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A high risk day indicates a considerable likelihood of a major tornado outbreak or (much less often) an extreme derecho event. On these days, the potential exists for extremely severe and life-threatening weather, including widespread strong or violent tornadoes and/or very destructive straight-line winds (Hail cannot verify or produce a high risk on its own, although such a day usually involves a threat for widespread very large hail as well). Many of the most prolific severe weather days were high risk days. Such days are quite rare; a high risk is typically issued only a few times each year (see List of SPC High Risk days). High risk areas are usually surrounded by a larger moderate risk area, where uncertainty is greater or the threat is somewhat lower.[9]
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Wow, SPC jumped to a high risk for this day! :o I'm a little scared to say the least as the expected line of storms has already formed. There are tornado warnings in effect right now.
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The last time a high risk has been issued was during the Yazoo City tornado. I don't remember having a high risk of severe weather in my area ever.
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A Particulary Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch is in effect. This is very, VERY close to Chattanooga. I'm literaly shaking a little as I type this.
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0723_radar.gif)
(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0723_overview.gif)
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 930 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 720...WW 721...WW 722...
DISCUSSION...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEEPENING
FROM N-CNTRL MS NWD TO E OF MKL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO TSTMS
LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
WARMING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 300-400 M2/S2...MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGEST A THREAT LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.
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Isn't it kinda odd that the PDS Tornado Watch is in the South when the high risk is in IL?
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The last time a high risk has been issued was during the Yazoo City tornado. I don't remember having a high risk of severe weather in my area ever.
And that was all the way back on April 24th.
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Here is the tornado watch in effect for my area:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 728
VALID 262045Z - 262140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
..ROGERS..10/26/10
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 728
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-063-
065-073-075-091-093-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-133-
262140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE
CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
ETOWAH FAYETTE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
MARENGO MARION PERRY
PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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Holy crap, tornado spotted near Chattanooga. The sky looks AWESOME!
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Wow, SPC jumped to a high risk for this day! :o I'm a little scared to say the least as the expected line of storms has already formed. There are tornado warnings in effect right now.
No offense to the SPC, but I think they hyped this event a little too much. For example, I don't think there was a need for a PDS Tornado Watch in AL and TN and the reason I say this is because I think a regular Tornado Watch would have equally served the same purpose and urgency as that PDS watch would have and plus I thought those are supposed to be issued in rare severe weather events where there's expected to be big wedge tornadoes that are long lived on the ground and things like that. I've seen more of these things issued in the past year than I have my entire life. I feel like it loses all urgency to it when it's issued more than it should be.
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No offense to the SPC, but I think they hyped this event a little too much. For example, I don't think there was a need for a PDS Tornado Watch in AL and TN and the reason I say this is because I think a regular Tornado Watch would have equally served the same purpose and urgency as that PDS watch would have and plus I thought those are supposed to be issued in rare severe weather events where there's expected to be big wedge tornadoes that are long lived on the ground and things like that. I've seen more of these things issued in the past year than I have my entire life. I feel like it loses all urgency to it when it's issued more than it should be.
The high risk for today was not triggered by confidence in tornadoes, which was only 15% according to their probability map. That number alone only yields a moderate risk. The high risk was triggered by the high confidence in wind damage, which was at 60%. There is actually a table that explains how SPC's probabilities of each severe weather parameter (tornadoes, winds, and hail) correlate to the risk level they issue. In regards to the PDS tornado watches, I think those were issued more because this event was happening in an unusual time of the year, so they were afraid people would be caught off guard.
Three people have already been injured from today's event based on preliminary reports that have made it to SPC so far. I don't see any fatalities listed, but it wouldn't surprise me if I'm only looking at the tip of the iceberg in terms of all reports from this day.
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No offense to the SPC, but I think they hyped this event a little too much. For example, I don't think there was a need for a PDS Tornado Watch in AL and TN and the reason I say this is because I think a regular Tornado Watch would have equally served the same purpose and urgency as that PDS watch would have and plus I thought those are supposed to be issued in rare severe weather events where there's expected to be big wedge tornadoes that are long lived on the ground and things like that. I've seen more of these things issued in the past year than I have my entire life. I feel like it loses all urgency to it when it's issued more than it should be.
The high risk for today was not triggered by confidence in tornadoes, which was only 15% according to their probability map. That number alone only yields a moderate risk. The high risk was triggered by the high confidence in wind damage, which was at 60%. There is actually a table that explains how SPC's probabilities of each severe weather parameter (tornadoes, winds, and hail) correlate to the risk level they issue. In regards to the PDS tornado watches, I think those were issued more because this event was happening in an unusual time of the year, so they were afraid people would be caught off guard.
Three people have already been injured from today's event based on preliminary reports that have made it to SPC so far. I don't see any fatalities listed, but it wouldn't surprise me if I'm only looking at the tip of the iceberg in terms of all reports from this day.
Oh ok, well thanks for clearing up the part about the high risk because when I saw the PDS Tornado Watch issued in the South I was thinking to myself, "Why didn't they issue that for IL & IN and parts of KY where they had the high risk forecasted?"
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I'm sad now that the severe weather risk has passed. :hmm: I just love the good feeling of severe weather possible. (I'm a severe weather fanatic. :P)
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Just when I thought it was over, here comes another line of storms. :P
(http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=FFC&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1288235094&lat=33.85500717&lon=-84.39598846&label=Atlanta%2C+GA&showstorms=10&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&smooth=1)
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Areas east of me had two confirmed tornadoes last night, and I'm pretty sure more occurred tonight after working a shift and seeing more tornado warnings being issued. It's been a crazy time lately for many people. :wacko:
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The pressure in northern MN is up to about 29.9-30", so it looks like this historic system has moved off and is history.
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Well, according to the SPC, the system has moved off and a high pressure system has taken its place. It looks like the majority of the nation is in for a beautiful weekend.
To close this out, here are a list of storm reports from the monster system, which I am officially dubbing "The Great Derecho of 2010."
- 2 injured in a EF1 tornado that touched down in Kenosha County, WI.
- Wanatah, IN, experienced an EF1 tornado with estimated winds fo 85-90 mph.
- Buckland, OH, showed damage caused by a possible EF2.
- EF2 tornado damaged dam in Chattanooga, TN ( :thrilled:, for some odd reason).
- Possible EF2 tornado in Dekalb County, AL.
- 1.75 inch hail reported in Cleveland, GA.
- Butlerville, OH, reported 81 mph winds.
- 80 mph winds reported in Greenfield, IN.
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Oh, and here is the AMAZING satellite image of this storm. Isn't it impressive? :blink:
(http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dlh/StormSummaries/2010/october26/satellite_large_2132z.JPG)
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Oh, and here is the AMAZING satellite image of this storm. Isn't it impressive? :blink:
([url]http://mail.google.com/a/mccallie.org/?attid=0.1&disp=emb&view=att&th=12bf579ffa4f5095[/url])
Broken link. From the URL you provided it looks like you're trying to address in image in your gmail account.
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While this storm was impressive and the storms did cause damage the media did hype it a lot in regards to the wind. It wasn't as bad as some of the wild scenarios that were being predicted