000WTNT43 KNHC 070852TCDAT3TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008500 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008WITH NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE INTENSITY OF MARCO IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE. THE OVERALLSATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHEN THE AIRCRAFTWAS THERE LAST...SO I'LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 55 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OVER WATER...SO SOMEFURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN CALLINGFOR MARCO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. AS WE HAVENOTED PREVIOUSLY...HOWEVER...SMALL CYCLONES ARE PARTICULARLYSUBJECT TO LARGE AND MOSTLY UNPREDICTABLE CHANGES IN INTENSITY. EXAMINATION OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0100 UTCSUGGESTS THAT THE RADIAL EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ISEXCEEDINGLY SMALL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 NMI. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OFHIGH PRESSURE SEPARATES MARCO FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHMOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THETROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MARCO ONBASICALLY THE SAME TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BESURPRISED IF THE TRACK BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...WHICH WOULDKEEP MARCO OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIALFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENTWITH THE UKMET AND BAM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 07/0900Z 20.1N 96.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W 60 KT...JUST INLAND 24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.9N 98.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER FRANKLIN
THE RADIAL EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ISEXCEEDINGLY SMALL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 NMI.
000WTNT42 KNHC 052220TCDAT2TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTEDNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008400 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008CORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER 3 TO NUMBER 2THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HASDEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TOBE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERFOUND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 26 KT AT 1000 FT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF1004 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION ISNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A BANDEDAPPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCEWITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND NOAA BUOY 42057.ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FORSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDLAND HWRF TURN THE DEPRESSION INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSINGCUBA. IN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOWHURRICANE STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE UNDERDONE GIVEN A LARGEUPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORMING NEARTHE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THEDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS THOSE MODELS FOR THETIME BEING. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR ISFORECAST TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANABRUPT WEAKENING.A TWELVE-HOUR MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 305/4. A SLOWNORTHWEST TO NORTH MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWOAS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A DEEPTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEASTAND ACCELERATE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DISCREPANCIES INTHE MODELS WITH THE GFDL/HWRF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS. LATE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTENNOTORIOUSLY SLOW-MOVING...E.G. MITCH OR WILMA...AND THE MODELS CANBE TOO QUICK TO EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. WE'REGOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME...AND THE NHCFORECAST IS A BIT BEHIND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 05/2100Z 14.0N 81.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 14.3N 82.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 14.8N 82.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 15.5N 82.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 16.5N 83.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 80.0W 75 KT120HR VT 10/1800Z 21.5N 75.5W 50 KT$$FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART
000WTNT32 KNHC 081455TCPAT2BULLETINHURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 13NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1720081000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS PALOMA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND TAKES AIM AT CUBA...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED AHURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND HOLGUIN ANDDISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANEWARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DEAVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN. PREPARATIONS TOPROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCEOF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SANSALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORMCONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36HOURS.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORTHE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTSISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOMEDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM CAYMAN BRAC THISMORNING...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA LATETONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ONTHE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURINGTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJORHURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115MILES...185 KM.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 17 TO 23 FEET...ACCOMPANIEDBY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TOTHE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THESOUTH COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDSWILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO10 INCHES OVER LITTLE CAYMAN...CAYMAN BRAC...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERNCUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESERAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICAAND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSSGRAND CAYMAN. REPEATING THE 1000 AM EST POSITION...19.9 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANECENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400PM EST.$$FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL700 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ISPRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 250 MILESNORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLYMARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ISPOSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT10 TO 15 MPH.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.
