Hurricane Central 2008

[beanboy89]

11 AM EDT advisories for Gustav and Hanna are both out:

Gustav:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281446
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...GUSTAV CLOSING IN ON JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM...EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 350 MILES...560
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA.  RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TODAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Hanna:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 281441
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2008

...HANNA BECOMES EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES...490 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND BE CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N...59.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[beanboy89]

Here's the 2 PM EDT advisory on Gustav:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281758
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...GUSTAV POURING HEAVY RAINS OVER JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA OR NEAR LATITUDE 17.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY AS IT MOVES
NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA.  RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TODAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[wxmediafan]

Gustav

I'm speechless about his track.  Lets just hope he some how dissapears (okay..maybe not).

This will be interesting to watch.

[toxictwister00]

I'm very scared and worried for New Orleans, Gustav could be like Katrina all over again. On another side note this would be a huge blow to our economy if it did severely damage the oil rigs in the GOM.

[Alejandro]

Great this looks like the same Ingredients Katrina had in Late Aug '05 

[beanboy89]

Great this looks like the same Ingredients Katrina had in Late Aug '05 

To be honest, sea surface temperatures don't really mean squat. Sure, the warmer they are, the more favorable it is for development, but there are so many other factors, mainly, wind shear. You could have SSTs at 90°F but if there is a lot of wind shear, you won't get any development.

[Alejandro]

Great this looks like the same Ingredients Katrina had in Late Aug '05 

To be honest, sea surface temperatures don't really mean squat. Sure, the warmer they are, the more favorable it is for development, but there are so many other factors, mainly, wind shear. You could have SSTs at 90°F but if there is a lot of wind shear, you won't get any development.

I know billy i just wanted to show at least one factor also there is looks to be some convection behind Hannah and another feature in the Gulf Of Mexico that clearly looks like it might develop 

[beanboy89]

Here is the 8 PM ET advisory for Gustav:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282337
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
800 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES... 25 KM...WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 300 MILES...
485 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHILE GUSTAV CROSSES
JAMAICA...BUT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  KINGSTON RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
49 MPH...80 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ON JAMAICA IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA.  RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...77.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Stephen]

5 AM ET advisory on Gustav:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290852
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA HEADING TOWARD THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 220 MILES...355
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL LEAVE JAMAICA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND
APPROACH WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. 

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N...78.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Spring Rubber]

Can someone please explain what is going on with Hannah's track? It's not very often that you see storms DIVE to the south like that, gang.

Seriously, though, I wonder where it will wind up over time if it takes that odd track.

[tpirfan28]

The same ridge of high pressure that is pushing Gustav over into the Gulf is pushing Hanna south.  The pressure center is over Florida, IIRC.

[beanboy89]

Gustav is now a hurricane again:

000
WTNT62 KNHC 291915
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[toxictwister00]

Can someone please explain what is going on with Hannah's track? It's not very often that you see storms DIVE to the south like that, gang.

Seriously, though, I wonder where it will wind up over time if it takes that odd track.

Beyond hitting Flordia in the long range it's expected to hit somewhere not too far from the east of Gustav (LA/MS Border).

[Stephen]

Gustav continues to strengthen. 8 PM ET advisory:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 292339
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...
40 KM...SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OF LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.
THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 365 MILES...585 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.  PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...80.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[beanboy89]

Here is the 11 PM EDT advisory on Gustav:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300231
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...
40 KM...WEST SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND.  THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND
GUSTAVE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.  PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N...80.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

EDIT: Here is the max wind speed probability chart for Gustav:



By 8 PM Sunday, Gustav is forecast to be a 135 MPH cyclone, making it a Category 4! Needless to say, this storm will have a HUGE impact on the Gulf.