Hurricane Central 2008

[tpirfan28]

Gustav's winds are now 100-110mph, per TWC.

[beanboy89]

Gustav is now a major hurricane, with winds of 115 MPH, as per a 6 AM EDT update.

5 AM EDT advisory:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300857
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT TAKES AIM ON WESTERN CUBA...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA AND THE ISLA DE JUVENTUD. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
220 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE NEAR WESTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GUSTAV IS
STRENGTHENING QUICKLY AND IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING CUBA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...20.2 N...81.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

6 AM EDT update:

000
WTNT62 KNHC 300953
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES GUSTAV A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON. 

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Stephen]

Gustav continues to strengthen, winds are now 120 mph.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301200
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND
CIENFUEGOS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...ISLA DE JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SOON RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 120
MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL THERE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM BOTH AIR FORCE
AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.  STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...81.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Stephen]

At the 11 AM ET advisory of Gustav, winds are now 125 mph.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301456
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CLOSES IN ON WESTERN CUBA...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.  A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
 85 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 185 MILES...
295 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS GUSTAV PASSES NEAR AND OVER WESTERN CUBA.  ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER GUSTAV REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE
AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.  STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...82.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[beanboy89]

Gustav's winds have been bumped to 145 MPH!!

000
WTNT62 KNHC 301718
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES.  THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[lfmusiclover]

Wow, we could be looking at a Cat 5 before all is said and done..that won't be good at all if it heads toward Louisiana. 

[Localonthe8s]

2 pm advisory:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301805
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...WESTERN EYEWALL DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.  A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST...NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING. 

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...82.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[beanboy89]

Gustav is forecast to hit 160 MPH by 8 AM Sunday, making it a Category 5!

[Mike M]

This doesn't look good at all.

[Stephen]

Yep, they are indeed forecasting this to be a Cat 5.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 301823
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

SO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV.
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE CONVEYED THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE MORE
THAN WHAT WE HAD IN MIND IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.  THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...HAVING
BEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO.  THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WIND VALUE IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF 141
KT...SINCE THE 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE USUALLY WORKS
RATHER WELL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES.  THE AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12...RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.  NO CHANGES TO THE 1500 UTC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN
MADE...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH
96 HOURS.  GUSTAV COULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER WATER...AND ONE CANNOT RULE OUT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY
BEFORE CROSSING CUBA.  THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 140
KT...CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH...FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/1800Z 21.6N  82.5W   125 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W   135 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  85.4W   140 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  87.3W   135 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 27.8N  89.2W   125 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 30.5N  92.5W    80 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 31.5N  94.0W    50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     04/1200Z 32.0N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Stephen]

I just checked the animated IR Satellite on weather.com, and it looks like the storm is starting to head more due north as opposed to the northwest track it's been taking. If that northerly turn keeps going, then they may have the shift the cone more to the east (which would put my area back in the cone or close to it again). We'll have to wait and see if that happens, though.

[beanboy89]

5 PM Advisory on Gustav... 150 MPH winds...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 302053
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT IMPACTS WESTERN CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 80
MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.  DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE...SINCE WINDS WILL SOON
RAPIDLY INCREASE AS EYEWALL AGAIN PASSES.  THE EYE IS ALSO CURRENTLY
CENTERED ABOUT 620 MILES...1000 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS WESTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...82.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[beanboy89]

8 PM EDT advisory on Gustav:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 302353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN MAINLAND CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS
OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR LOS PALACIOS AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA.  DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THE EYE...SINCE WINDS WILL SOON RAPIDLY INCREASE AS
EYEWALL AGAIN PASSES.  THE EYE IS ALSO CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 570
MILES...915 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND REACH
THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  THERE ARE
UNOFFICIAL REPORTS FROM PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WINDS NEAR THESE
ESTIMATES.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. 

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AS GUSTAV WAS MAKING LANDFALL WAS 941
MB...27.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...83.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Spring Rubber]

Based on the updated track of Hannah, that storm could also pose a threat to the U.S. and even possibly enter the Gulf. I can't imagine what would happen if Hannah were to hit the same area that Gustav does. Surely that would be a worst case scenario.

[Spring Rubber]

Now Hannah is starting to have a projected path eerily similar to the early days of Rita. That's not good.