Hurricane Central '07

[lfmusiclover]

Dean has intensified a little bit. Winds are up a tad since the last advisory, and the pressure is down about 4 milliabars.

[Stephen]

Some interesting information from the NHC site:

DEAN IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS
OVER 27.5C SSTS...AND IS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THE SHEAR
SHOULD DROP WHILE THE SSTS WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE A CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...
GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM THROUGH 72 HR.  THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST RELIES PRIMARILY UPON THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS.  BY DAY
5...DEAN IS FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE AND COULD
REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THEN.

As the bold text says, this storm could be our first major hurricane in the atlantic. That doesn't necessarily mean that it WILL, but we'll have to wait and see.

[lfmusiclover]

Yeah I don't take any prediction with more than a grain of salt at this point. We all know how little precision there is in hurricane forecasting. Its a minute by minute thing.

[Stephen]

Yeah I don't take any prediction with more than a grain of salt at this point. We all know how little precision there is in hurricane forecasting. Its a minute by minute thing.

That's true. Just because they say it'll be a major hurricane, doesn't mean you should go "OMG its gonna be a major hurricane! nooooo!!!!!!!!  :frantic: :frantic: :frantic:". It's a possibility of it developing into a major hurricane because it's surrounded by miles upon miles of water, but only time will tell what it becomes into.

[lfmusiclover]

Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the Texas gulf coast.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007

MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

GMZ250-255-151115-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TR.A.0001.070815T0330Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
1030 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...EAST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET
BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 TO
35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO
7 FEET. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WIND 35 TO 40 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FEET. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET
DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

$$

[wxmancanada]

Oh I hope we get Erin soon! That's my g/f's name.. It would be hillarious!

[beanboy89]

We now have Tropical Storm Erin.

10:00 AM CDT Advisory:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151438
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DEPRESSION POORLY
ORGANIZED...BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 290 MILES...470
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL.  SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N...93.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Update:

000
WTNT65 KNHC 151516
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1015 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN.  A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Stephen]

Latest advisory on Dean:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 151457 RRA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER   9...RETRANSMITTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Now, it's a fairly strong Tropical Storm, and it could become a hurricane within 24 hours.

[lfmusiclover]

Wow, he's really stregthened quite a bit since the last advisory. Winds are up about 20mph or so, and the pressure has fallen below 1000 millibars.  :ph34r:

[Localonthe8s]

Looks like TD 5 has strenghtened to TS Erin! Go to Storm Alert mode plz!

[Stephen]

Wow, he's really stregthened quite a bit since the last advisory. Winds are up about 20mph or so, and the pressure has fallen below 1000 millibars.  :ph34r:

Yep. If you look at the satellite picture of Dean, you'll see it's getting it's act together pretty well.



It's also a fairly small circulation, much like how Flossie is.

[Localonthe8s]

Wow. I hope its not a Katrina-type storm. TWC says Dean could be the first hurricane! :frantic:

[lfmusiclover]

I don't expect that it will be that strong Thunder.

Wow, it really has gotten its act together quite a bit Stepehn! No eye yet though.

[Stephen]

Wow. I hope its not a Katrina-type storm. TWC says Dean could be the first hurricane! :frantic:

It *could* get to Major Hurricane status, but we can only wait and see.

[Localonthe8s]

Yeah. Only time will tell.