Hurricane Central '07

[Stephen]

Dean's projected path:



It's expected to become a hurricane by the time it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles.

[lfmusiclover]

Hmmm....judging by the projected path it looks as though he might affect the U.S. mainland at some point.  :ph34r:

[Stephen]

Hmmm....judging by the projected path it looks as though he might affect the U.S. mainland at some point.  :ph34r:

Yeah, and it also since it's over lots of water it has plenty of time to get it's act together. This is definitely something to watch for the southeast.

[Localonthe8s]

I hope it doesn't hit one of my favorite cities in the world again, New Orleans.

[lfmusiclover]

It doesn't look like its a threat to that area, but of course it could always change paths.

[chris9277]

Okay My Local news said it has a 25% chance of heading towards Florida, 25% chance of heading to the Carolinas, 25% chance of it dying out, and 25% chance of it going to the Gulf.

[beanboy89]

Okay My Local news said it has a 25% chance of heading towards Florida, 25% chance of heading to the Carolinas, 25% chance of it dying out, and 25% chance of it going to the Gulf.

I don't think it's safe to project things like that. This storm is out in the middle of the ocean. It is way too early to tell what it is going to do. It is over a week away from even coming close to the United States.

[lfmusiclover]

Okay My Local news said it has a 25% chance of heading towards Florida, 25% chance of heading to the Carolinas, 25% chance of it dying out, and 25% chance of it going to the Gulf.

I don't think it's safe to project things like that. This storm is out in the middle of the ocean. It is way too early to tell what it is going to do. It is over a week away from even coming close to the United States.

Yeah I was going to say the same thing. You can never predict these things with much certainty.

[Stephen]

5 PM ET advisory for Dean:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN. 

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
MILES...1830 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1390 MILES...2235 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N...41.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[beanboy89]

T.D. Five:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 150233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 10PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 425
MILES...680 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW.  THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ESTIMATED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES...EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...91.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Stephen]

Darn Billy, I was just about to post that.

[lfmusiclover]

I was waiting to see that. I was sure that that disturbance was going to develop into a TD.

[Stephen]

It could possibly turn into Tropical Storm Erin before it makes landfall, but the strongest this system is going to get is a minimal tropical storm (if it does reach TS status) because it doesn't have a lot of water to pass over, unlike TS Dean.

[lfmusiclover]

Yeah I don't expect to see it strengthen much at all. In fact, I'll be surprised if it reaches Tropical Storm status.

[Stephen]

Latest advisory for Dean (11 PM ET):

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1295
MILES...2085 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...42.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN