Hurricane Central '07

[Localonthe8s]

You have good predicting skills, Gary!

[lfmusiclover]

Anyone who knows a little bit about weather could've easily made the same prediction.

[Stephen]

What would happen if the subtropical storm reached 75 mph winds? What would it be called, or would it still be called a subtropical storm?

[lfmusiclover]

It will change to Tropical Storm if it reaches that status, and if it reaches hurricane strength it will then be called that.

[Stephen]

It will change to Tropical Storm if it reaches that status, and if it reaches hurricane strength it will then be called that.

I know that, but what if the winds reach hurricane strength while it's still a Subtropical Storm? What would they call it?

[Localonthe8s]

I don't think that's possible, IMO.

[Stephen]

I don't think that's possible, IMO.

It could be possible. Subtropical Storm Adnrea got to 60 mph winds, so I don't see why a subtropical cyclone can't reach 75 mph winds.

[beanboy89]

Gabrielle now a Tropical Storm as of the 5 PM ET advisory:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 082046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007

...GABRIELLE BECOMES TROPICAL...STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE
FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO
NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  HOWEVER...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...32.4 N...74.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Localonthe8s]

8 pm advisory.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 082340
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
800 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2007

...GABRIELLE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO
NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR.  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GABRIELLE HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...32.7 N...75.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Stephen]

8 PM ET advisory for Gabrielle:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 092343
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

...GABRIELLE ABOUT TO EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER BANKS...

AT 8 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBERMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 8
MILES...13 KM...WEST OF KILL DEVIL HILLS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
FROM FRISCO PIER NORTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUNDS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. 

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...36.0 N...75.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[lfmusiclover]

Looks like she's gonna miss the Mid-Atlantic area after all. Which is good, yet bad, because we could really use the rain.

[Stephen]

5 AM EDT advisory, Gabrielle now a depression:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 100839
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

...GABRIELLE WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...37.0 N...74.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[beanboy89]

Two Tropical Depressions form on the same day... 8 and 9.

Nine:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121445
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF
CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DEPRESSION WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...95.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Eight:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 121438
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1130
MILES...1815 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...13.2 N...44.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[lfmusiclover]

Yep, we just gotta wait and see now how strong they get and where they go.

[Localonthe8s]

Wow.