Hurricane Central '07

[Stephen]

I'm wondering something, and it has nothing to do with the hurricane...why did the name of the forecaster at the end of the message change? All last week it was Forecaster Avila. Since yesterday its been Knabb/Roberts.

Because there was a different forecaster doing the advisory.

[lfmusiclover]

I realize that. What I'm trying to figure out is why the same guy did it for over a week before someoene else started doing it.

[Stephen]

I realize that. What I'm trying to figure out is why the same guy did it for over a week before someoene else started doing it.

Maybe Avila didn't want to do that advisory?

[Localonthe8s]

Maybe they have specific times of the day that 4casters give advisories?

[lfmusiclover]

I don't think that's the case. Avila was doing them all every day.

Anywho, anyone got the latest advisory?

[Stephen]

I don't think that's the case. Avila was doing them all every day.

I remember several different forecasters doing advisories, not just Avila.

4 AM CT advisory:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
400 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...DEAN SLOWLY RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO TO LA
CRUZ.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO LA CRUZ.  PREPARATIONS IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
190 KM...NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN ACROSS THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.  NOAA BUOY 42055 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 57 MPH...91 KM/HR...AND A GUST OF 65 MPH...104
KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...20.3 N...94.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[Localonthe8s]

10 AM CDT advisory. Dean has strenghtened to a CAT 2 and it appears that a new guy is doing the advisory!

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH...LANDFALL EXPECTED WITHIN A
FEW HOURS...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF COATZACOALCOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL.  ON THIS
TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  ABOUT FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
VERACRUZ DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...96.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI

[Stephen]

Dean's depressed:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230221
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...DEAN WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...150 KM...NORTHWEST OF MEXICO CITY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION ACROSS MEXICO IS EXPECEDT TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...100.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Bye, Dean!

[lfmusiclover]

Well I guess its time to wait for the next system to develop.

[Stephen]

Tropical Storm Gil has formed (in the Pacific).

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 292030
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 110.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  45SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 110.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$

[Localonthe8s]

Gil? Hope TS Gil doesn't do too much damage.

[Stephen]

Gil? Hope TS Gil doesn't do too much damage.

Gil is supposed to move away from land and not bother anybody.

[Localonthe8s]

Gil? Hope TS Gil doesn't do too much damage.

Gil is supposed to move away from land and not bother anybody.

Good! I hope it stays that way!

[Stephen]

Also, they're monitoring something off the coast of the Carolina's that *could* develop into Felix (the next Atlantic name). Though, it's interacting with some dry air, so even if it does develop it probably won't develop into something like Dean did.

[beanboy89]

Also, they're monitoring something off the coast of the Carolina's that *could* develop into Felix (the next Atlantic name). Though, it's interacting with some dry air, so even if it does develop it probably won't develop into something like Dean did.

This looks almost exactly like Subtropical Storm Andrea.