Hurricane Central '07

[lfmusiclover]

Where is it going to hit (in the US)?

IF it hits the U.S. at all its going to hit Texas. But it looks like Mexico is probably going to get the brunt of it.

[Stephen]

I have a hunch that it will hit land.

[G2003]

Stephen, I'm NOT in the mood... Seriously, where is it likely to hit?

[beanboy89]

Where is it going to hit (in the US)?

It's still way too early to sell if it will make a U.S. landfall, but if it does, anyone along the Gulf Of Mexico could be at risk.

edit: didn't see page 9. :p

[lfmusiclover]

Stephen, I'm NOT in the mood... Seriously, where is it likely to hit?

Did you miss my post? 

[G2003]

Stephen, I'm NOT in the mood... Seriously, where is it likely to hit?

Did you miss my post? 

I didn't read any of the advisories or updates.

[beanboy89]

Dean 5 PM EDT advisory:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 172042
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.  THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.  A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...
1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES...
415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N...64.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[lfmusiclover]

Stephen, I'm NOT in the mood... Seriously, where is it likely to hit?

Did you miss my post? 

I didn't read any of the advisories or updates.

Not those. I answered your question about where Dean would hit.

[G2003]

Stephen, I'm NOT in the mood... Seriously, where is it likely to hit?

Did you miss my post? 

I didn't read any of the advisories or updates.

Not those. I answered your question about where Dean would hit.

Oh oops. I missed that post. My mistake.

[wxmancanada]

Dean is expected to become a catagory 4 hurricane in just 12 hours!

[lfmusiclover]

I heard that it may happen as soon as sometime this evening.

[beanboy89]

8PM EDT advisory for Dean; he's now a Category 4!

000
WTNT34 KNHC 180004
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CORRECTED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED TO 135 MPH...

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.  THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946
MB...27.93 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[beanboy89]

You can clearly see Dean's eye on radar from the WSR-88D out of San Juan, PR:


(courtesy wunderground)

[lfmusiclover]

Yeah he's got a very well defined eye now.

And I was right about him becoming a Cat 4 sometime this evening! I feel special! 

[Localonthe8s]

I knew it! Dean is now rapidly strenghtening to a CAT 4.