Hurricane Central '07

[Stephen]

5 PM ET advisory for Tropical Storm Dean, and it has strengthen a little bit more. Could become a hurricane by either tonight or tomorrow morning.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 152032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.  INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[lfmusiclover]

Eh, it strengthened a LITTLE bit, but not much. Only a couple mph increase in the winds, and only a couple of millibars drop in the pressure. I'd say that it'll probably be a Cat 1 sometime tomorrow afternoon.

[Stephen]

TS Dean Discussion #10:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 152036
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

DEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A
PARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE
OF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
ANY INTERACTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE LIMITED AS THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF DEAN. NUMERICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING THE
STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS MUCH FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
OF DEAN.  GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/2100Z 13.1N  47.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N  50.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.1N  54.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.6N  58.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.1N  62.3W    85 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  69.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N  76.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N  83.0W   115 KT

$$

They say that the current pattern in the tropics could favor in a development of a powerful hurricane. I wouldn't be surprised if this were the case - since it is in open water and still has miles of water to get by before making it into land. At this point we can't say for sure if that does happen, but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

[beanboy89]

11 PM EDT advisory for Dean:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA...
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. 

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 625
MILES...1005 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...50.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

And 10 PM CDT advisory for Erin:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160235
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...ERIN APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...220 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 200
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.5 N...95.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[lfmusiclover]

Wow, looks like Dean has strengthened quite a bit over the last few hours!  :ph34r:

[beanboy89]

Hurricane Dean 5:00 AM EDT Advisory:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160849
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Stephen]

Latest 8 AM ET advisory for Hurricane Dean:



An eye is starting to form on Dean:

[lfmusiclover]

I see what looks like the start of an eye, but its still not at all well defined.

The winds haven't increased much since the last advisory, but the pressure took a respectable dive.

[Stephen]

I see what looks like the start of an eye, but its still not at all well defined.

That's because it's just a minimal hurricane. As Dean strengthens it certainly will get more defined.

[lfmusiclover]

I see what looks like the start of an eye, but its still not at all well defined.

That's because it's just a minimal hurricane. As Dean strengthens it certainly will get more defined.

Most certainly.  8)

[lfmusiclover]

Hurricane Dean 11AM Advisory:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 161443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN
HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER.  DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...54.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Localonthe8s]

Looks like Dean is rapidly strenghtening.

[lfmusiclover]

I don't know if the term "rapidly" is quite accurate, but yes he certainly is strengthening.

[Stephen]

Rapid strengthening would mean it going from, lets say, a 90 MPH storm to a 120 MPH storm. The amount of strengthening that we've seen with Dean is anywhere from a 5-10 mph increase.

[Localonthe8s]

Well then sorry about the "major" mistake.