000
WTNT34 KNHC 131454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007
...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520
MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Has it been a slow year?The start has been, yes. But 2004 started off rather slow, and we had several powerful hurricanes in that year, so you should never let your guard down. :no:
I just hope no hurricanes hit the New Jersey coast or New Orleans.I hope they don't either. I live along the NJ coast and lost my roof during Isabel. I hope no hurricane hits my beloved city of the Big Easy. Our family has been to New Orleans many times and Katrina was the ticking timebomb for the city.
I think it only makes sense that they'd do that. The older stuff was better! :yes:That would be better!
All they need to do now is bring John Hope back from the dead. :D
I'm going to go against the grain here (as I've been doing since before the tropical season began) and say that I don't expect a particularly active season this year.You never know. 2005 wound up being much more active than we thought, but that doesn't mean it'll happen this year. We'll just have to wait and see. :yes:
Yeah, then Katrina killed everyone :-\If they killed everyone where it hit, then I guess all the people in the affected areas must be ghosts. :rolleyes:
Yeah, then Katrina killed everyone :-\Hmm? :-\ I don't recall 500,000 deaths. :P
it means, talking about the original topic.
ANyways, how many named storms have their been yet? (I do not follow hurricanes)
I believe there have now been 4.Actually, it's 3. The current Tropical Depression, while it is a tropical system, has not yet been named. ;) Once the depression turns into a TS, then it'll be 4.
| System Name | Status | Last Advisory Date (UTC) |
| SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA | Not Active | 0300 UTC FRI MAY 11 2007 |
| TROPICAL STORM BARRY | Not Active | 2100 UTC SAT JUN 02 2007 |
| TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL | Not Active | 2100 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007 |
| TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR | Active | 1500 UTC MON AUG 13 2007 |
| System Name | Status | Last Advisory Date (UTC) |
| TROPICAL STORM ALVIN | Not Active | 2100 UTC THU MAY 31 2007 |
| TROPICAL STORM BARBARA | Not Active | 2100 UTC SAT JUN 02 2007 |
| TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E | Not Active | 0300 UTC WED JUN 13 2007 |
| TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E | Not Active | 0300 UTC WED JUL 11 2007 |
| TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E | Not Active | 0300 UTC MON JUL 16 2007 |
| HURRICANE COSME | Not Active | 2100 UTC WED JUL 18 2007 |
| TROPICAL STORM DALILA | Not Active | 1500 UTC FRI JUL 27 2007 |
| TROPICAL STORM ERICK | Not Active | 2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2007 |
| HURRICANE FLOSSIE | Not Active | 1500 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007 |
| System Name | Status | Last Advisory Date (UTC) |
| TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME | Not Active | 0300 UTC MON JUL 23 2007 |
| HURRICANE FLOSSIE | Active | 1800 UTC MON AUG 13 2007 |
000
WTNT34 KNHC 132043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR ABOUT 620
MILES...995 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1900 MILES...3060 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N...33.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 140258
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST MON AUG 13 2007
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740
MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1780 MILES...2865 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...35.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
000Wow, I can fit that tropical depression on my hard drive! :lol:
WTNT34 KNHC 140258
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST MON AUG 13 2007
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740
MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1780 MILES...2865 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...35.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
Quote000Wow, I can fit that tropical depression on my hard drive! :lol:
WTNT34 KNHC 140258
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST MON AUG 13 2007
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740
MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1780 MILES...2865 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...35.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 141023
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007
...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 855
MILES...1375 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1660 MILES...2670 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.0 N...36.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
000
WTNT34 KNHC 141433
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007
...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Hmmm....judging by the projected path it looks as though he might affect the U.S. mainland at some point. :ph34r:Yeah, and it also since it's over lots of water it has plenty of time to get it's act together. This is definitely something to watch for the southeast. :yes:
Okay My Local news said it has a 25% chance of heading towards Florida, 25% chance of heading to the Carolinas, 25% chance of it dying out, and 25% chance of it going to the Gulf.I don't think it's safe to project things like that. This storm is out in the middle of the ocean. It is way too early to tell what it is going to do. It is over a week away from even coming close to the United States.
Yeah I was going to say the same thing. You can never predict these things with much certainty. :no:Okay My Local news said it has a 25% chance of heading towards Florida, 25% chance of heading to the Carolinas, 25% chance of it dying out, and 25% chance of it going to the Gulf.I don't think it's safe to project things like that. This storm is out in the middle of the ocean. It is way too early to tell what it is going to do. It is over a week away from even coming close to the United States.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 142045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007
...DEAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
MILES...1830 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1390 MILES...2235 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N...41.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
000
WTNT31 KNHC 150233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 10PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 425
MILES...680 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ESTIMATED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES...EARLIER THIS
EVENING.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...91.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 150247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007
...DEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1295
MILES...2085 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...42.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
DEAN IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS
OVER 27.5C SSTS...AND IS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR
SHOULD DROP WHILE THE SSTS WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE A CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...
GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM THROUGH 72 HR. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST RELIES PRIMARILY UPON THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS. BY DAY
5...DEAN IS FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE AND COULD
REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THEN.
Yeah I don't take any prediction with more than a grain of salt at this point. We all know how little precision there is in hurricane forecasting. Its a minute by minute thing.That's true. Just because they say it'll be a major hurricane, doesn't mean you should go "OMG its gonna be a major hurricane! nooooo!!!!!!!! :frantic: :frantic: :frantic:". It's a possibility of it developing into a major hurricane because it's surrounded by miles upon miles of water, but only time will tell what it becomes into.
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
GMZ250-255-151115-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TR.A.0001.070815T0330Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
1030 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
.TONIGHT...EAST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET
BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 TO
35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO
7 FEET. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WIND 35 TO 40 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FEET. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET
DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
$$
000
WTNT35 KNHC 151438
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DEPRESSION POORLY
ORGANIZED...BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 290 MILES...470
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N...93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT65 KNHC 151516
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1015 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT34 KNHC 151457 RRA
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9...RETRANSMITTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007
...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.
DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Wow, he's really stregthened quite a bit since the last advisory. Winds are up about 20mph or so, and the pressure has fallen below 1000 millibars. :ph34r:
Wow. I hope its not a Katrina-type storm. TWC says Dean could be the first hurricane! :frantic:It *could* get to Major Hurricane status, but we can only wait and see. ;)
000
WTNT34 KNHC 152032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007
...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT44 KNHC 152036
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
DEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A
PARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE
OF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
ANY INTERACTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE LIMITED AS THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF DEAN. NUMERICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING THE
STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS MUCH FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.1N 47.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 50.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 14.1N 54.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.6N 58.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.1N 62.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 69.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 76.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 83.0W 115 KT
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 160241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007
...DEAN STRENGTHENS...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA...
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW
MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 625
MILES...1005 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT35 KNHC 160235
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
...ERIN APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...220 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 200
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
ERIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE.
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.5 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 160849
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007
...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
I see what looks like the start of an eye, but its still not at all well defined. :no:That's because it's just a minimal hurricane. As Dean strengthens it certainly will get more defined.
I see what looks like the start of an eye, but its still not at all well defined. :no:That's because it's just a minimal hurricane. As Dean strengthens it certainly will get more defined.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 161443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007
...DEAN INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN
HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...54.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
000
WTNT34 KNHC 162031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007
...HURRICANE DEAN RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 100
MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST OF MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040...THE FRENCH BUOY 41101 AND A
NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
000
WTNT34 KNHC 170249
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007
...DEAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...
NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.1 N...58.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
Not much of a change really since the last advisory. The only difference is a drop of 4mb in pressure, which is actually a lower drop rate then was happening earlier.As it passes over the islands, it'll probably weaken just a touch, but as soon is it gets back on water then it'll start strengthening again. After that it'll have much more water to get by before it reaches land.
It's path is to go past Cancun and make US landfall somewhere over Texas.We can't say that for sure just yet. Pretty much everyone from the Texas coast to the Florida coast needs to watch this system and see what happens. The path could change, it happens sometimes.
You took the words right out of my mouth Thunder. I was going to mention that I saw on TV earlier that Dean was projected to reach Cat 4.I expect it to reach Cat 4 status as well. Storms like this that are well away from a very large mass of land usually get that strong. :yes:
You took the words right out of my mouth Thunder. I was going to mention that I saw on TV earlier that Dean was projected to reach Cat 4.I expect it to reach Cat 4 status as well. Storms like this that are well away from a very large mass of land usually get that strong. :yes:
So has this thing hit the US?No. There's a 50/50 chance of Dean making US landfall :yes:
So has this thing hit the US?No. There's a 50/50 chance of Dean making US landfall :yes:
I also saw on KSMI Website that Hurricane Gil could be one of the strongest storms in the Pacific Hurricane season. Did you hear that Gil?
So has this thing hit the US?
Didn't you read? It was on the KSMI website. Sheesh! The 50/50 was just a guess. The projected path was to include norther mexico/South texas as seen at TWC.So has this thing hit the US?No. There's a 50/50 chance of Dean making US landfall :yes:
I also saw on KSMI Website that Hurricane Gil could be one of the strongest storms in the Pacific Hurricane season. Did you hear that Gil?
Not sure where you got your probability from, but there's a big dome of high pressure protecting much of the U.S. at present. It looks currently like Mexico and Central America have a better likelihood of having to face Dean.
Has Gil even formed yet? How can you predict what a sotrm's gonna be like before it even forms? :rolleyes:
Has Gil even formed yet? How can you predict what a sotrm's gonna be like before it even forms? :rolleyes:Because everyone knows i am strong and bad
I used to be pretty bad :yes:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 171457
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
000
WTNT34 KNHC 171751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 145 PM AST...1745Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK...DEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
Where is it going to hit (in the US)?
Where is it going to hit (in the US)?It's still way too early to sell if it will make a U.S. landfall, but if it does, anyone along the Gulf Of Mexico could be at risk.
Stephen, I'm NOT in the mood... Seriously, where is it likely to hit?
I didn't read any of the advisories or updates.Stephen, I'm NOT in the mood... Seriously, where is it likely to hit?
Did you miss my post? :huh:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 172042
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...
1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES...
415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
I didn't read any of the advisories or updates.Stephen, I'm NOT in the mood... Seriously, where is it likely to hit?
Did you miss my post? :huh:
Oh oops. I missed that post. My mistake. :)I didn't read any of the advisories or updates.Stephen, I'm NOT in the mood... Seriously, where is it likely to hit?
Did you miss my post? :huh:
Not those. I answered your question about where Dean would hit.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 180004
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...CORRECTED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED TO 135 MPH...
...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946
MB...27.93 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
I knew it! Dean is now rapidly strenghtening to a CAT 4. :DIt is a Category 4 at this very moment. Let's hope it doesn't get anymore stronger than it already is. :ph34r:
Could be a 5!Don't jinx it!! :P
If it strikes the US, will TWc go into Storm Alert mode?They most certainly will. :yes: And when they do, I'll be taping.
Same with me. I never realized how valuable this footage could be in the future.If it strikes the US, will TWc go into Storm Alert mode?They most certainly will. :yes: And when they do, I'll be taping.
000
WTNT64 KNHC 180135
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
930 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Wow, we could be looking at something along the lines of Andrew and Katrina by the time this thing makes landfall! :ph34r:That would be catastrophic. :no: Hopefully it'll weaken somewhat before it makes landfall.
Wow, we could be looking at something along the lines of Andrew and Katrina by the time this thing makes landfall! :ph34r:That would be catastrophic. :no: Hopefully it'll weaken somewhat before it makes landfall.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 180247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...
1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
SATURDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937
MB...27.67 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Looks like this storm will have a somewhat simular track as what Claudette of 2003 had.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 180548
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR DEAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...
1125 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER
TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...
240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 930
MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...66.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 180833
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR DEAN CONTINUES WESTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES...
1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
DEAN IN A FEW HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 59 MPH.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...67.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 181150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...CORE OF HURRICANE DEAN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF
HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES...
990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 250 MILES...
400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN COULD HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAINS AS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE AND WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH....122
KM/HR AS DEAN MOVED NEARBY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.4 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Actually, it's stabilized. The winds and pressure have stayed the same since the 2:00 AM ET advisory. :yes:
They say he appears to have weakened a little since the last advisory!
Actually, it's stabilized. The winds and pressure have stayed the same since the 2:00 AM ET advisory. :yes:
They say he appears to have weakened a little since the last advisory!
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN COULD HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS..
000
WTNT34 KNHC 181447
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...DEAN'S FURY THREATENS HAITI...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEAVY SQUALLS ALREADY APPROACHING HISPANIOLA...
AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND
FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 565 MILES...
910 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.7 N...68.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
They say he appears to have weakened a little since the last advisory!Yeah, but it's not much of difference. :no:
They say he appears to have weakened a little since the last advisory!Yeah, but it's not much of difference. :no:
It must have been enough of a difference if the NHC felt it was necessary to mention it.... :huh:I meant the wind speeds and the pressure. It's still a strong Category 4, that didn't change. ;)
It must have been enough of a difference if the NHC felt it was necessary to mention it.... :huh:I meant the wind speeds and the pressure. It's still a strong Category 4, that didn't change. ;)
000
WTNT34 KNHC 181745
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...DEAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...HEAVY SQUALLS
SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF
CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF
HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...
815 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GENERAL TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT34 KNHC 182359
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 190249
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...ADDED STORM SURGE INFORMATION...
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...HEADING TOWARD
JAMAICA...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE
OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N...71.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS
Its interesting that the pressure is going one way and the wind the other. Dropping pressure is a sign of strengthening. Youowuld think the wind would reflect that. :unsure:Yeah. These storms can surprise us sometimes. For example, Epsilon in 2005. At one point, it strengthened despite being in a not-so favorable environment. :wacko:
Its interesting that the pressure is going one way and the wind the other. Dropping pressure is a sign of strengthening. Youowuld think the wind would reflect that. :unsure:Yeah. These storms can surprise us sometimes. For example, Epsilon in 2005. At one point, it strengthened despite being in a not-so favorable environment. :wacko:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 190550
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2007
...DEAN HEADING TOWARD JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BARAHONA TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF CABO CAUCEDO
TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
CAUCEDO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 191144
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN ABOUT TO REACH JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING
THE CENTER OF DEAN SHORTLY.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE
REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...74.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 191443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING OVER JAMAICA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR
DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
DEAN IS MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE ISLAND OF
JAMAICA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...75.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
000
WTNT34 KNHC 192348
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA
AS THE EYE OF DEAN PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECTING HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN OBSERVATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS
REPORTED FROM KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WAS REPORTED FROM LIONEL TOWN JAMAICA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE FLOODED STREETS IN KINGSTON JAMAICA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS
000
WTNT64 KNHC 210034
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
I'm wondering something, and it has nothing to do with the hurricane...why did the name of the forecaster at the end of the message change? All last week it was Forecaster Avila. Since yesterday its been Knabb/Roberts.Because there was a different forecaster doing the advisory. ;)
I realize that. What I'm trying to figure out is why the same guy did it for over a week before someoene else started doing it.Maybe Avila didn't want to do that advisory? :unsure:
I don't think that's the case. Avila was doing them all every day.I remember several different forecasters doing advisories, not just Avila.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 220835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
400 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
...DEAN SLOWLY RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO TO LA
CRUZ. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
190 KM...NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN ACROSS THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 57 MPH...91 KM/HR...AND A GUST OF 65 MPH...104
KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...20.3 N...94.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 230221
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
...DEAN WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...150 KM...NORTHWEST OF MEXICO CITY.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION ACROSS MEXICO IS EXPECEDT TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ25 KNHC 292030
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2007
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 110.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 110.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.0W
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 110.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
$$
Gil? Hope TS Gil doesn't do too much damage. :PGil is supposed to move away from land and not bother anybody. :D
Good! I hope it stays that way! :DGil? Hope TS Gil doesn't do too much damage. :PGil is supposed to move away from land and not bother anybody. :D
Also, they're monitoring something off the coast of the Carolina's that *could* develop into Felix (the next Atlantic name). Though, it's interacting with some dry air, so even if it does develop it probably won't develop into something like Dean did.This looks almost exactly like Subtropical Storm Andrea.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
480 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
EVENING...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 312046
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007
...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO
PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...COASTAL VENEZUELA INCLUDING OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND
CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.8 N...58.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 312352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLANDS OF ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA...AND FOR ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE ELONGATED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
59.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT
170 MILES...270 KM...EAST OF GRENADA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...
26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT
OR ON SATURDAY. BARBADOS HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
TO 30 MPH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...COASTAL VENEZUELA INCLUDING OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND
CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...59.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 010233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...AND TOBAGO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA...AND FOR THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...EAST OF GRENADA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. BARBADOS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33
MILS PER HOUR...54 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AND THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...59.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 011143
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007
...FELIX STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 8 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT
AND THE GRENADINES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...CURACAO AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED IN BARBADOS AND A WIND GUST OF 44 MPH WAS
OBSERVED IN ST. VINCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 011744
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007
...FELIX NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
AT 2 PM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
VENEZUELA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...680 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
535 MILES...865 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED AND NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 100 MILES...160 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 7
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...12.5 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 012043
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007
...FELIX CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT 310
MILES...500 KM EAST OF ARUBA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
How do you get the advisories from nws website? :huh:
How do you get the advisories from nws website? :huh:
First, go to [url]http://nws.noaa.gov/[/url] . Then, on the left frame, under "Forecasts", click "Hurricanes". You can get the advisories from there. :yes:
You can also get them from the NHC... [url]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] ;)
You can also get them from the NHC... [url]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] ;)
My way goes to that exact same link. ;)
000
WTNT31 KNHC 012344
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007
...FELIX BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WATCH FOR JAMAICA...
AT 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT
270 MILES...435 KM...EAST OF ARUBA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FELIX A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES...25 KM...FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.6 N...66.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 020250
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007
...CENTER OF FELIX MOVING WESTWARD...LIKELY TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA ON SUNDAY...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...
EAST OF ARUBA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FELIX JUST
NORTH OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N...66.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021201
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007
...FELIX PASSING NORTH OF CURACAO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...615 KM... SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
NORTHEAST OF ARUBA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE
PASSING JUST NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND INTO
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FELIX COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...13.0 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021201
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007
...FELIX PASSING NORTH OF CURACAO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...615 KM... SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
NORTHEAST OF ARUBA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE
PASSING JUST NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND INTO
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FELIX COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...13.0 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021434
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007
...FELIX PASSING NORTH OF ARUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
75 KM...NORTH OF ARUBA AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FELIX COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N...70.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
I don't know if you know this or not Billy, but I posted that exact same advisory about 2 hours ago. ;)Whoops!
Can we post advisories for "G.." and Henriette?If you'd like, yes. :yes:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 022039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
...FELIX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES...
710 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956
MB...28.23 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...13.6 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT31 KNHC 022359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...
625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
Oh shucks! Wow Felix went from a TS yesterday to a CAt 5!
000
WTNT31 KNHC 030558
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES RAPIDLY
WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LIMON HONDURAS TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND ABOUT 555
MILES...890 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...14.0 N...74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
WTNT31 KNHC 032341
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
325 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE...UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...14.5 N...80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 041146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX MAKES LANDFALL IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AT CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE
PROVIDENCIA....FOR NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO
PRINZAPOLKA....AND FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER... INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA BAHIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED ON
THE COAST NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR VERY
NEAR PUNTA GORDA NICARAGUA ABOUT 10 MILES...15 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO CABEZAS.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL
BE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TODAY AND OVER
HONDURAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER IS MAKING LANDFALL.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NICARAGUA AND MUCH OF HONDURAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...14.3 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT31 KNHC 041800
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
...FELIX CONTINUES MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...REMAINS A
MAJOR FLOOD THREAT...
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR NICARAGUA.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ADJUSTED ITS
WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE COAST OF HONDURAS.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM PLACENTIA VILLAGE TO THE GUATEMALA/BELIZE BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...WEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVER HONDURAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH TODAY.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR...WITH 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PERSONS IN FLOOD-PRONE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Wow, we've only had 2 major hurricanes this year and we've already set a record, with 2 Cat 5's making landfall. That's the first time it's ever happened in the Atlantic. :oDt. William Gray from Colorado State said that 16 storms-8 hurricanes-are still to be forecasted for this season.
That's funny, I heard he predicted 7. :unsure:That's not good. I live right along the Jersey shore. :frantic:
Anywho, it looks like the east/southeast coasts might get in on the tropical action this weekend, as a disturbance sitting near the Bahamas looks like its oging to develop into Gabrielle and then be steered up the east coast by a high pressure system, also sitting just off the coast. This is something all us east coasters should definitley stay tuned to.
Yes, there's a high pressure system out in the Atlantic which is supposed to steer Gabrielle back to the U.S..We've got Gabrielle now? :o
Yes, there's a high pressure system out in the Atlantic which is supposed to steer Gabrielle back to the U.S..We've got Gabrielle now? :o
000
WONT41 KNHC 072106
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
It could form into Gabrielle as early as tomorrow. :oTry 11:00 PM tonight...we now have Subtropical Storm Gabrielle:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 080243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007
...LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
It will change to Tropical Storm if it reaches that status, and if it reaches hurricane strength it will then be called that.I know that, but what if the winds reach hurricane strength while it's still a Subtropical Storm? What would they call it? :unsure:
I don't think that's possible, IMO.It could be possible. Subtropical Storm Adnrea got to 60 mph winds, so I don't see why a subtropical cyclone can't reach 75 mph winds.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 082046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE BECOMES TROPICAL...STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES NORTH CAROLINA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE
FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO
NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...32.4 N...74.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
WTNT32 KNHC 092343
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007
...GABRIELLE ABOUT TO EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER BANKS...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBERMARLE SOUNDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 8
MILES...13 KM...WEST OF KILL DEVIL HILLS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IN A FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
FROM FRISCO PIER NORTH CAROLINA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUNDS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...36.0 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
000
WTNT32 KNHC 100839
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007
...GABRIELLE WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...37.0 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
000
WTNT34 KNHC 121445
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF
CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DEPRESSION WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...95.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 121438
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1130
MILES...1815 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...13.2 N...44.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 121736
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
100 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RETURNED TO BASE FOR MECHANICAL
REASONS...BUT A SECOND AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HUMBERTO
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Will it become a hurricane? :unsure:No chance. :yes:
Good because Houston is densley populated so a TS wouldn't be troubling. If only TWC went to Storm Alert! Well, they shouldn't since the stupid move they made last year for a very weak TS Ernesto. :rolleyes:Will it become a hurricane? :unsure:No chance. :yes:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 122051
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
400 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...28.6 N...94.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 122034
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST WED SEP 12 2007
...DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1065
MILES...1715 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.5 N...45.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Humberto WILL NOT hit hurricane strength. It should weaken from here on out because its making landfall.Well I'm not saying Humberto will be a hurricane once it makes landfall. It should weaken but I'm just saying that it could hit hurricane strength while in the warm Gulf waters.
Humberto WILL NOT hit hurricane strength. It should weaken from here on out because its making landfall.Well I'm not saying Humberto will be a hurricane once it makes landfall. It should weaken but I'm just saying that it could hit hurricane strength while in the warm Gulf waters.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 130532
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1215 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COVER SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF CENTER...
AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1215 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30
KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS...AND ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...SOUTH
OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80
MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HUMBERTO IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 992
MB...29.29 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 1215 AM CDT POSITION...29.4 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
Wow, I'm amazed. I didn't think there was enough time for that to happen. :no:I was right Gary. It indeed formed into a hurricane. It seems that all the hurricanes this season, are rapidly intensifying such as Dean and Felix. I'd be shocked if it becomes a CAt 3 during landfall even though it's extremely unlikely.
I was right Gary. It indeed formed into a hurricane. It seems that all the hurricanes this season, are rapidly intensifying such as Dean and Felix. I'd be shocked if it becomes a CAt 3 during landfall even though it's extremely unlikely.Hurricanes can't become Cat 3's over land. ;)
I was right Gary. It indeed formed into a hurricane. It seems that all the hurricanes this season, are rapidly intensifying such as Dean and Felix. I'd be shocked if it becomes a CAt 3 during landfall even though it's extremely unlikely.Hurricanes can't become Cat 3's over land. ;)
Why was I lucky? :unsure:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 140227
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007
...THE NINTH STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST OR ABOUT 840
MILES...1355 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N...48.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Well I did. :D It was the first tropical system to gain that much strength so fast. Humberto was a depression earlier this morning to a borderline CAT 1-2 hurricane in the early afternoon.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 211454
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT35 KNHC 211746
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 110232
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1100 PM AST MON DEC 10 2007
...LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DE
MANZANILLO AT THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO.
INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLGA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM...EAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
300 MILES...485 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE
CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT...AND
NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER APPROACHES THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41043 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 38 MPH...61 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 5 METERS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. ST.
THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1006.4 MB...29.72 INCHES.
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN