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Author Topic: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th  (Read 5342 times)

Offline jtmal0723

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Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« on: November 11, 2012, 04:33:35 PM »
Here comes another one heading our way showing for the 20th.... It's 10mb lower than it was run a few days ago. It's showing possible activity for approx November 20th.

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Offline Zach

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2012, 04:40:48 PM »
Euro model has this a bit offshore.. with such a difference in the models, we'll just have to wait and see.
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Offline jtmal0723

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2012, 04:41:10 PM »
We have to remember, this past Nor'Easter was just 990mb and dropped significant snowfall...
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2012, 04:50:43 PM »
Jesse, I wouldn't panic yet.  This system could very easily move further offshore like the Euro solution shows and not affect you.  The Euro is the better model here over the GFS for this far out in the forecast.  Furthermore, we're talking 216 hours away from this scenario, and a lot could change between now and then.
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Offline Localonthe8s

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2012, 05:21:39 PM »
Another what? :huh:
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Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2012, 06:13:19 PM »
Quote from: phw115wvwx on November 11, 2012, 04:50:43 PM
Jesse, I wouldn't panic yet.  This system could very easily move further offshore like the Euro solution shows and not affect you.  The Euro is the better model here over the GFS for this far out in the forecast.  Furthermore, we're talking 216 hours away from this scenario, and a lot could change between now and then.
Just because it's more reliable doesn't mean it should always be trusted. It did good with Sandy compared to the GFS, but lets remember how bad the ECMWF did with Debby earlier in the year, in which the GFS dominated.

Currently the HPC is preferring the GFS in the late period:
BY DAY 5/FRI THE 00Z GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN
THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH QUICKLY
FOLLOWING.  GIVEN THE GROWING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME...THE
PREFERENCE IS FOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS FAVORING THE FASTER GFS.  A SIMILAR APPROACH IS
PREFERRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 00Z GFS
BETTER SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.  THUS...
THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TOWARD A
50/50 BLEND OF THE GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAYS
6/7...WITH MORE DETAILS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS PREFERRED OVER
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD. JAMES
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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2012, 07:53:01 PM »
Euro lost it this morning for the 0Z run and now has something around the 240hr at the 12Z. Not sure if I'm biting yet
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2012, 08:27:35 PM »
I am not going to get remotely excited about until it hits about 120 hours.
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2012, 12:07:35 PM »
Double post. 120 hours out.

Fish storm at this point. Don't see any models at this point bringing much or any adverse effects to the Northeast, apart from maybe some slightly gusty winds.
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2012, 12:55:06 PM »
Quote from: plane852 on November 14, 2012, 12:07:35 PM
Double post. 120 hours out.

Fish storm at this point. Don't see any models at this point bringing much or any adverse effects to the Northeast, apart from maybe some slightly gusty winds.
I don't see anything threatening for the Northeast either.  Since we did we start using the term of "fish storm" on any normal low pressure system heading out to sea?  I didn't realize it was that popular a term. :P
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Here comes another one! Approx Nov 20th
« Reply #10 on: November 14, 2012, 01:25:45 PM »
I have no clue. Is "ocean storm" more appropriate?  :P
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