TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => General Weather Chat => Topic started by: gt1racerlHDl on September 13, 2011, 06:59:04 PM
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Winter Prediction (http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2011/08/29/2012-us-winter-forecast/)
(http://www.farmersalmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/2012-US-Farmers-Almanac-Winter-Map-Large-e1314389863213.jpg)
By Amanda Cedrone, Globe Correspondent
Forget those weather supercomputers, those satellite pictures, Doppler radar images, graphs, and maps. The Farmers’ Almanac has spoken, and it says New Englanders can expect a rough winter.
“We’re summarizing the winter for the whole country as clime and punishment,” said Sandi Duncan, managing editor of the Farmers’ Almanac.
Punishment won’t come in the form of temperature, but in precipitation, she said.
“New England and Massachusetts are going to have a very stormy and snowy winter on tap,” Duncan said. “We don’t see a very cold winter.”
Because the temperature won’t be particularly cold, the storms are expected to bring freezing rain and slushy snow. The storms should begin in November around Thanksgiving, Duncan said.
The beginning of December should come with some snow, but around Christmastime we could see some heavy rain that may lead to flooding.
Duncan also urged New Englanders to be prepared for two big storms in early to mid-February. The storms could result in over a foot of heavy, wet snow.
“I’d say take a vacation that week if you can,” Duncan said.
Boston Globe Report (http://www.boston.com/Boston/metrodesk/2011/09/farmers-almanac-foresees-rough-winter-ahead/OD148ajUqPKDUkNa2kFouK/index.html)
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It's nice to see these predictions, but I don't put much faith in them. La Ninas and El Ninos are tricky and most forecasts are based off of what a typical one will do instead of taking into account other factors that can override their effects like I mentioned about the Greenland blocking in the La NIna thread. Although I have to give the Farmer's Almanac some credit, they were mostly right calling for a colder, wetter and snowier winter here last winter and the winter before that.
EDIT: It's interesting that they expect most of the South including a large chunk of TX to be very wet. That's not usually typical of La Nina so something else must be factoring into the mix.
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Looks like good news for parts of Texas and Iowa.
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Looks like good news for parts of Texas and Iowa.
Certainly. :yes: Mild and wet (although that would make humidity high) are certainly too things good to see together. I have no idea how truthful this will be, though, especially if La Niña is coming back.
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Bleh! Looks like a boring winter for the EC. A lot of long lonely nights staring at the models :P
Looks like good news for parts of Texas and Iowa.
That is awesome news. Hope they finally get a break out there!
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You all realize that this forecast directly clashes with what could happen if La Niña makes a full return this winter? I wouldn't put so much hope in seeing the South getting a lot of drought relief yet.
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Let me know if you want me to post the full 3 month winter forecasts by region
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I never agree with Farmer's Almanac predictions. Last year, they predicted extremely cold and below average snowfall for the northeast. We had well above average snowfall and slightly below average temps. They can't even get their 3 month regional forecasts correct. That's just my opinion.
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I never agree with Farmer's Almanac predictions. Last year, they predicted extremely cold and below average snowfall for the northeast. We had well above average snowfall and slightly below average temps. They can't even get their 3 month regional forecasts correct. That's just my opinion.
And as stated above, if La Niña makes a return, this forecast will be thrown completely out the window (for the southern Plains, anyway).
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I never agree with Farmer's Almanac predictions. Last year, they predicted extremely cold and below average snowfall for the northeast. We had well above average snowfall and slightly below average temps. They can't even get their 3 month regional forecasts correct. That's just my opinion.
And as stated above, if La Niña makes a return, this forecast will be thrown completely out the window (for the southern Plains, anyway).
Well that is only one piece of the puzzle, it can be overruled like it was last winter by the very strong -NAO contributing to the strong, persistent Greenland Blocking and the parade of storms coming up the east coast. Not saying this La Nina will behave the same as last winter's La Nina, but I remember many forecasted a blowtorch winter for 2010-2011 across the southern US and many of us saw record snowfall, white Christmases not seen in over a century, record lows, and some pretty nasty cold snaps. When that snowstorm came through the SE in January this year, we had snow on the ground for about 3 weeks and it was about a week before we saw above freezing daytime highs. It's reasons like that I take seasonal forecasts as entertainment and a grain of salt, too much FAIL potential. We can't accurately predict 12 hours out in advance in some circumstances, let alone 3 months.
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I never agree with Farmer's Almanac predictions. Last year, they predicted extremely cold and below average snowfall for the northeast. We had well above average snowfall and slightly below average temps. They can't even get their 3 month regional forecasts correct. That's just my opinion.
And as stated above, if La Niña makes a return, this forecast will be thrown completely out the window (for the southern Plains, anyway).
Well that is only one piece of the puzzle, it can be overruled like it was last winter by the very strong -NAO contributing to the strong, persistent Greenland Blocking and the parade of storms coming up the east coast. Not saying this La Nina will behave the same as last winter's La Nina, but I remember many forecasted a blowtorch winter for 2010-2011 across the southern US and many of us saw record snowfall, white Christmases not seen in over a century, record lows, and some pretty nasty cold snaps. When that snowstorm came through the SE in January this year, we had snow on the ground for about 3 weeks and it was about a week before we saw above freezing daytime highs. It's reasons like that I take seasonal forecasts as entertainment and a grain of salt, too much FAIL potential. We can't accurately predict 12 hours out in advance in some circumstances, let alone 3 months.
Very true! This might be a dumb question, but I'm guessing these outlooks are supposed to be a general look at the overall winter? But how can you give a general outlook for a season? Because weather in the south, especially, can be very, very inconsistent during the winter season. For example, Dallas saw a major ice storm and snow burst in February of this year, whereas at the same time it was also 82 degrees later that month. I'm pretty sure no Farmer's Alamanc could predict that. What would they say: warm and icy? :P And yes, these are two specific examples, but many winters in Dallas are often all over the place: we'll have our unseasonably warm days, our average days, and our ridiculously cold days. So essentially, you can't put an "outlook" to that. As you said Tavores, it's sometimes very hard to predict weather hours or a few days in advance, so I don't really understand the purpose of the Farmer's Alamanc. I guess it's to provide some outlook, just so people know what to expect. However, people need not rely on it too much because it has the potential of not being accurate.
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We can't accurately predict 12 hours out in advance in some circumstances, let alone 3 months.
The biggest argument of climate change right there.
Very true! This might be a dumb question, but I'm guessing these outlooks are supposed to be a general look at the overall winter? But how can you give a general outlook for a season? Because weather in the south, especially, can be very, very inconsistent during the winter season. For example, Dallas saw a major ice storm and snow burst in February of this year, whereas at the same time it was also 82 degrees later that month. I'm pretty sure no Farmer's Alamanc could predict that. What would they say: warm and icy? :P And yes, these are two specific examples, but many winters in Dallas are often all over the place: we'll have our unseasonably warm days, our average days, and our ridiculously cold days. So essentially, you can't put an "outlook" to that. As you said Tavores, it's sometimes very hard to predict weather hours or a few days in advance, so I don't really understand the purpose of the Farmer's Alamanc. I guess it's to provide some outlook, just so people know what to expect. However, people need not rely on it too much because it has the potential of not being accurate.
Yes it is intended for a general outlook on winter. People aren't supposed to look at these maps and stock up on snow shovels and salt. My area has those same shifts you mention for Dallas but if you look at the average temperature on a monthly basis, the +/- departure from average shows a clearer picture. The argument that these maps can't be right because we can't predict the weather 12 hours from now is a bit flawed. We can look at weather patterns and get a general idea if it is going to be colder/warmer or wetter/dryer over certain regions. That is very different than forecasting the exact precip amount and temperature for a specific point.
These forecasts are important for people to perhaps plan ahead for additional heating costs, farmers to take extra precautions, and so forth. It isn't just the farmers almanac that does these either. I am sure you have seen the outlooks from NOAA. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) As for the farmers almanac they tend to look at past trends to make their forecast. Sometimes they get it right other times they are way off. I put more stock in the forecasts from the CPC.
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Yes it is intended for a general outlook on winter. People aren't supposed to look at these maps and stock up on snow shovels and salt. My area has those same shifts you mention for Dallas but if you look at the average temperature on a monthly basis, the +/- departure from average shows a clearer picture. The argument that these maps can't be right because we can't predict the weather 12 hours from now is a bit flawed. We can look at weather patterns and get a general idea if it is going to be colder/warmer or wetter/dryer over certain regions. That is very different than forecasting the exact precip amount and temperature for a specific point.
These forecasts are important for people to perhaps plan ahead for additional heating costs, farmers to take extra precautions, and so forth. It isn't just the farmers almanac that does these either. I am sure you have seen the outlooks from NOAA. [url]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/[/url] ([url]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/[/url]) As for the farmers almanac they tend to look at past trends to make their forecast. Sometimes they get it right other times they are way off. I put more stock in the forecasts from the CPC.
You basically proven the point of what I said, there is still a high fail potential regardless because not every factor involved going into this upcoming winter will be predicted accurately so far in advance especially with the teleconnections. I already mentioned the NAO, the PNA, EPO, etc. Sure in the short term we can get a general idea of the pattern over certain regions, but that doesn't make it any easier or better to predict than where it will rain or snow 36 hours from now. If any of those teleconnections were to do the opposite of what were predicting in the short term or was slower or faster about doing so would have implications on how the pattern this winter plays out. Also I disagree about the CPC, they and NOAA seem to be bias in forecasting more on the fact of a typical La Nina pattern, but we know there's never anything "typical" about any weather pattern. I rather believe the FA than them, it's obvious they are taking into account other factors than La Nina for this winter. In a previous post in this thread I did say the FA actually fared well for us last winter and the winter before that so yes sometimes they get it right and sometimes they don't. The whole point is there is a high fail potential long term over months as there is short term going over hours or days.
OT: Speaking of NOAA, wasn't the new website supposed to come out last week?
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The deadline for opinions and suggestions on the new site layout was last week. I don't know when the new site is supposed to come up.
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Well NAO and the AO and the ENSO are major factors in making winter forecasts. Unfortunately, we can't predict what will happen with these as the winter months approach. NOAA predicts the La Nina will return this winter which will persist the drought conditions over the south central US. The AO is THE biggest factor in making a winter forecast, especially for the east coast. If the NAO and AO indices are negative, that will allow cold air from the arctic to mix with the warm Atlantic Ocean water. This will create numerous areas of low pressure known as a nor'easters. Depending on how warm the ocean is and how cold the air is will determine the intensities of these storms. The intenser the storms, the more precipitation occurs. BUT, this also depends on the storm track. If the low pressure takes a track that's more west like going over central PA, much of the precipitation would be rain and the low pressure would be weaker. We can't predict whether this will happen or not. This is why I disagree with Farmer's Almanac. What we can do is determine is the storm tracks. Storm Tracks don't change drastically so it's much easier to forecast. The predicted storm tracks for this winter appear to be very similar to last year so I wouldn't rule out a repeat of last year.
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If I thought the Farmer's Almanac's predictions had some legitimacy for this winter, I don't anymore. I was listening to the radio this morning and found out FA was predicting 200 inches of snow for the Red River Valley. Complete and utter bogus, and if that DID happen, Fargo would turn into Atlantis.
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La Nina, Shma Nina thats a whole bunch of malarky this drought here in texas needs to end now, and i hope we get a good snowfall this year and not any weak flurrys.
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The following is my forecast for temperature and precipitation deviations this winter, with a little help from the Climate Prediction Center.
(http://monarch.tamu.edu/~smrs/23014041.gif)
(http://monarch.tamu.edu/~smrs/2320012.gif)
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It's nice to see Oklahoma getting average precipitation for the winter in your forecast. :) We need the rain badly here too, and although we've gotten some over the past couple of weeks, we could use buckets more.
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The Climate Prediction Center issued the official Winter Outlook today. The general overview:
New England
Has an equal chance to be above or below average temperature wise. Western New York southward should generally see some above average precipitation totals. The rest of New England has an equal chance.
Southeast
A good portion of the Southeast can expect a drier winter, although temperatures have an equal chance of being above or below average.
Midwest
Chances are good for a colder and wetter winter in the Northern Plains, while farther south, a warmer and drier winter seems likely.
West
Pacific Northwest could see a colder and wetter winter, while the Southwest and Four Corners region should expect a warmer and drier winter.
Maps attached below.
(http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/images/winterOutlook_Temperature_300.jpg)
(http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/images/winterOutlook_Precipitation_300.jpg)
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F.A's Thanksgiving Forecast Region By Region
Northeast
Fair at first, then turning very unsettled, with squalls; hopefully, the adverse weather holds off until after the Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade.
Midwest/Great Lakes
Fair at first, then turning very unsettled, with squalls for the Ohio River.
Southeast
Gusty and showery.
North Central
Gusty and showery.
South Central
Squally conditions, followed by gradual clearing.
Northwest
Still very unsettled, then slowly clearing.
Southwest
Very unsettled in the West, then slowly clearing.
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2011/11/07/whats-mother-nature-cooking-p-for-thanksgiving/ (http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2011/11/07/whats-mother-nature-cooking-p-for-thanksgiving/)