El Nino Returns

[toxictwister00]

Expect a slow and/or quiet hurricane season this year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090709/ap_on_sc/us_sci_el_nino;_ylt=AvZVNJwX4ZwzzpjvSFEaRnBxieAA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1MGkxOXByBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN5bi1jaGFubmVsBHNsawNlbG5pbm9jb25kaXQ-

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

More importantly it means wetter than average conditions LIKELY in Southern California this rainy season  because of the subtropical jet. It will be drier further up North.

Here's more thorough discussion by the Climate Prediction Center:

Synopsis:  El Niño conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010.

During June 2009, conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to increase, with the latest weekly departures exceeding +1.0°C along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). All of the weekly SST indices increased steadily during June and now range from +0.6°C to +0.9°C (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also increased as the thermocline continued to deepen (Fig. 4). Consistent with the oceanic evolution, the low-level equatorial trade winds were weaker-than-average across much of the Pacific basin, and convection became increasingly suppressed over Indonesia. This coupling of the ocean and atmosphere indicates the development of El Niño conditions.

Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C). Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter.

Expected El Niño impacts during July-September 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the central and west-central Pacific Ocean, along with the continuation of drier than average conditions over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere Summer and early Fall, and generally strengthen during the late Fall and Winter. El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook issued in May (will be updated on Aug. 6th) indicates the highest probabilities for a near-average season.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 August 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
 

   

[toxictwister00]

I wanted to comment on what I believe the winter will play out in the Southeast, first thing I believe is that this region will see above average snow and ice, Icestorm events should occur from N GA up to the spine of Applachian Mtns. There will also be plenty of CADs (Cold Air Damming) Events also known as "Cold Wedges".

If you look at the current pattern, we are already setting up for what's to come this winter. Were currently in a Weak El Nino phase now, which is expected to peak to Moderate intensity by December before quickly weakening by the dead of winter in January.The ingredients are already beginning to come together right now. We have an active Southen branch - one of our most important players fro the SE and the NE if you want enough gulf moisture and a gulf low to produce a MECS or even a HECS (Major East Coast Snowstorm/Historical East Coast Storm) Cold air is invading the Rockies and the Midwest producing record cold highs and lows and record snowfalls that are practically unheard of for Early/Mid October. Our source of artic air this year, I believe will be coming from not only Canada, but also Siberia as well. This winter is being compared to many past winters, but the one that grabbed my attention was the Winter of 2002-2003 because in January 2003 of that year, my area broke record lows when falling into the single digits! It hasn't been that cold since, also have heard the Winter of 1995-1996 thrown around a couple of times. I'm not saying this inter will be anything like those winters, but wouldn't rule it out.

On average Atlanta only picks up 2 inches of snow sadly.  , we have gones where we only picked up ice, but this winter I'm forecasting for us to get 3-6 inches with 1-3 inches in ice accumulations for the Winter of 2009-2010.

Heres's my forecast for other cities in the Southeast (snowfall wise)

Birmingham, AL - 3-6 inches

Charlotte, NC - 4-8 inches

Nashville, TN - 12-18 inches

Greenville, SC - 3-6 inches

Montgomery, AL - Trace-2 inches

Chattanooga, TN - 10-16 inches

[TWCToday]

I am hoping this will be the year of change for my area. Our average snowfall is 7ish inches each year. We have barely hit 1in for over 4 years. Bring on the snow!

[toxictwister00]

The squirrels have been going nuts "literally" for nuts! you can hear them dropping nuts out of trees 24/7 since late summer. That's a good sign of a frigid winter coming, I've also heard a wise old tale that if you see a flcok of black crows in your yard, that's another sign of a frigid winter to come, haven't seen any of those since October 2007.

[twcclassics]

Weird. One of my local TV mets said that the El Nino was weakening.

http://www.wowt.com/blogs/jimflowers/60262117.html

[toxictwister00]

Weird. One of my local TV mets said that the El Nino was weakening.

http://www.wowt.com/blogs/jimflowers/60262117.html

It is, it's expected to peak at moderate at best during December then it will weaken significantly or completely setting the pattern into neutral for the rest of the winter.

There have even been hints of a weak La Nina making a return.

[ABC7]

El Nino will make a brutal entrance tomorrow. Northern and Central California is in for heavy rain and fast winds. Link