Ask The Weather Expert!

[Mr. Rainman]

Whoops. Sorry about that. Thanks for letting me know.

[Mr. Rainman]

Patrick, The Weather Channel just used a term called "bombogenesis," a word I can barely understand, let alone pronounce. What, exactly, is bombogenesis?

[phw115wvwx]

Bombogenesis (pronounced "bomb-o-genesis") is the term for a mid-latitude cyclone that rapidly deepens and intensifies at an extreme rate.  A low has to drop at least 24 mb in a 24-hour period to qualify, which means a deepening rate of at least 1 mb per hour.  Atmospheric conditions have to be almost ideal to allow for air to converge into the low, rapidly ascend, and escape out of the low much faster than the air coming in at the surface to replace it for the pressure to drop so quickly.  The more proper term for the formation and intensification of any cyclone is cyclogenesis, but bombogenesis is just the extreme version of it.

[Eric]

Bombogenesis (pronounced "bomb-o-genesis") is the term for a mid-latitude cyclone that rapidly deepens and intensifies at an extreme rate.  A low has to drop at least 24 mb in a 24-hour period to qualify, which means a deepening rate of at least 1 mb per hour.  Atmospheric conditions have to be almost ideal to allow for air to converge into the low, rapidly ascend, and escape out of the low much faster than the air coming in at the surface to replace it for the pressure to drop so quickly.  The more proper term for the formation and intensification of any cyclone is cyclogenesis, but bombogenesis is just the extreme version of it.

   Thanks - that's an excellent definition!

[Mr. Rainman]

More questions yet again!

1.) I've recently been told that when there is a 50% chance of rain, it means that 50% of your area or county is going to get some rainfall. Is that right, or does it really imply that there is a 50% chance that the entire county or area will see rainfall?

2.) Since tornado season is starting to crawl up, what are some ideal signals from models that signify the potential for tornadoes? I know high CAPE is one thing, but are there any other key signals?

[phw115wvwx]

Here are your answers:

1.)  Probability of precipitation refers to the chance that a certain point will receive measurable precipitation.  It does not have anything to do with how much of your area will get it.  When you're told that you have a 50% chance of precipitation today, it means that there's a 50% chance that you will get measurable rainfall (at least 0.01") or measurable solid precipitation (at least 0.1") during the day.  Furthermore, it only refers to you at a point, not your entire area.

2.)  When you're looking at the models, you look for lots of moisture (high dewpoints and a good flow at 850 hPa bring moisture from somewhere like the Gulf of Mexico), wind shear (winds changing with direction and speed as you go up), CAPE as you said, and boundaries (fronts, drylines, sea breezes, etc.).  Using observed data like soundings, hodographs, surface data, radar, and satellite is a better choice over the models if you want to really gauge severe weather potential.  The models can't handle convection well enough yet, but they can help you see when a certain setup favorable for severe weather may happen.

Hope this helps!

[Donovan]

I am wanting to go to college to get a degree in meteorology and loves science, my problem comes with the math. I am great at math when my teacher is wanting to help and see me succeed. The problem is the past 2 years, my teachers have been terrible with explaining things and do not really care and just want a paycheck. I was wondering if you have ever had a problem with this and maybe could help me to find a solution. Thanks.

[phw115wvwx]

You should try to form study groups with your classmates, find a tutor, or perhaps think of taking a couple math classes in college before going on to Calculus courses.  If you're able to just get everything through Trigonometry completed before college, then you're fine.

[Donovan]

You should try to form study groups with your classmates, find a tutor, or perhaps think of taking a couple math classes in college before going on to Calculus courses.  If you're able to just get everything through Trigonometry completed before college, then you're fine.

What should I do if my school doesn't have Trigonometry? I'm set up to take it like this: Algebra 1, Geometry, Algebra 2, then Calculus.  And thanks for the advice, my teacher this year is excellent at explaining things.(Got new classes last week).

[Anistorm]

I think you have to take Advanced Math/Pre-Calculus in order to jump right into Calculus.

[Donovan]

I think you have to take Advanced Math/Pre-Calculus in order to jump right into Calculus.

Some of our administrators at school said the new plan they were developing I guess was just to jump right into Calculus. They were supposedly cutting the funds of Pre-Cal and just combining the two into one.

[phw115wvwx]

What should I do if my school doesn't have Trigonometry? I'm set up to take it like this: Algebra 1, Geometry, Algebra 2, then Calculus.  And thanks for the advice, my teacher this year is excellent at explaining things.(Got new classes last week).

Trigonometry is actually not too long a class.  If you're good with right triangles and the sine, cosine, and tangent functions, you'll probably be okay.  You can always take it in college if you have no choice and need the course.

[Mike M]

I know this is silly but... just WHY do I have to get all the snow? Frankly, I'm tired of it, and the removal of summer/spring break days...

[phw115wvwx]

I know this is silly but... just WHY do I have to get all the snow? Frankly, I'm tired of it, and the removal of summer/spring break days...

Mike, unfortunately, we're in a pattern that has been persistent for a couple months now.  The upper level flow continues to bring storms up the coast towards you, and nothing has changed this pattern yet.  The atmosphere can get stuck in blocking patterns and repeat over and over the same weather situations until something breaks it.  I can't tell you when it'll happen though as predicting when blocks start or end in weather is a really difficult task.

[toxictwister00]

I know this is silly but... just WHY do I have to get all the snow? Frankly, I'm tired of it, and the removal of summer/spring break days...

Be happy that the cold the European model was showing two days ago has backed off quite a bit. or else you would think we were living with Santa Claus. 

From Jan 25th (12z runs)

Just to throw some numbers around at what it was showing from WED/THU next week.BTW I believe these were highs...not completely sure.
Atlanta, GA 7 degrees (Wed) -4 degrees (Thu)
Minneapolis, MN -15 degrees/ -8 degrees
Tampa, FL 50 degrees/ 21 degrees
NE WVA area -4 degrees/ -18 degrees