2012-2013 Winter Outlook

[toxictwister00]

It's always fascinating to me to hear that areas in TX, almost down near the Mexican border and have elevations as low or lower than New Orleans has seen more measurable snow than Chicago. If we end up beating Chicago to a major winter storm down here first then you know Chicago is having a pretty sad winter.

[toxictwister00]

Something worth keeping tabs on...

I would venture out to say this is a fluke given the GFS's cold bias, however it helps the GFS has support from the European model as well.

On the 00z GFS, notice the 1052mb High sliding south into Montana, believe me as I say this thing ain't messin' around with us on this run. As the run progresses the high (slightly weaker) heads SE until it's situated over the TN Valley, even then it's still around 1040mb!

00z GFS 850mb Surface Temps (January 22 - 24th, 2013)
NOTE: I converted these temperatures from the maps, so there could be a margin of error. Also I didn't post specific highs/lows I'm just posting some of the coldest temps observed from the maps over this time period.

Minneapolis, MN: -32.8F
Duluth, MN: -38.2F
Chicago, IL: -25.6F
Columbus, OH: -22F
St. Louis, MO: -16.6F
Nashville, TN: -14.8F
Norfolk, VA: -11.2F
Charlotte, NC: -2.2F
Atlanta, GA: 0F
Columbia, SC: 5F
Birmingham, AL: 1.4F

[Zach]

Got any Florida temps there? 

[toxictwister00]

Got any Florida temps there? 

To give a summary, across the Florida Panhandle, temperatures would range from the 20s to 32 degrees. This is on Thursday, January 24th. Temperatures across Central FL range from the 30s (Tampa to Ft. Myers) 40s (Sarasota to Belle Glade) 50s (Naples to Miami) and 60s along the Keys.

2m Temperatures - Hour 300
NOTE: Although this is considered La La Land on the GFS, keep in mind the cold air begins filtering in as early as hour 216 into the CONUS from this high.


EDIT: I also need to make a correction on the strength of the high, it appears to peak at 1058mb in Canada.


00z Euro Hour 240, right on par with the 00z GFS.


00z GFS Hour 240

[toxictwister00]

I don't know if it's because our NWS office got a new M.I.C (Meteorologist In Charge) last year or what, but I don't care. Our office is on their A-Game when it comes to this ULL or "Helen" as TWC would call it now. They are being so open minded to all the possibilities of what could happen Thu/Fri. I was pleasantly surprised to see a detailed SWS issued today which mentioned snow could fall as far south as LaGrange, GA, but they didn't stop there, from the weather briefing video below, they even entertain the idea of Winter Storm Watches, not Advisories, WATCHES to be issued tonight or tomorrow. (3:36 in the video)

Now you're probably wondering, Ok, so what? I don't see what the big deal is? Well if you've read any of our NWS office's AFDs you would know they were extremely conservative to any idea of wintry weather in GA, no matter if every single model supported the idea, it used to drive me up the freakin' wall. This year they've done a complete 180 so I say kudos to them for laying out all the scenarios from least to most likely to happen (as of right now).

Sidenote: Are there other NWS offices that have Youtube channels like ours? Our office seems to have just opened theirs a few days ago.

Winter Weather Potential

[TWCCraig]

Absolutely ridiculous how places much south of here, places that don't normally see a lot of snow, have and will get more snow from one storm than our entire season total so far.
 



Might change if we could just get some snow! Next chance is Friday.

[toxictwister00]

Absolutely ridiculous how places much south of here, places that don't normally see a lot of snow, have and will get more snow from one storm than our entire season total so far.
 



Might change if we could just get some snow! Next chance is Friday.

What's even weirder is some parts of NC/VA could potentially see up to a foot of snow if recent models are to be believed.

[Mr. Rainman]

Winter is here in full force - we've had snow on the ground since late November and the wind keeps blowing it around like crazy. Cold snap arrives this weekend... high of -11 on Monday! 

[toxictwister00]

Here's the call map I made at another forum.

[TWCCraig]

Here's the call map I made at another forum.

What other forum are you on? I'm on American Weather a lot in the NYC metro forums, if you're on there.

[toxictwister00]

Here's the call map I made at another forum.

What other forum are you on? I'm on American Weather a lot in the NYC metro forums, if you're on there.

I'm a member there (with the same username I have here) but I mainly hang around/post in the SE forums.

I posted this map at another weather forum called Talkweather.

[toxictwister00]

Interesting... If anyone has been following the models lately, the GFS/ECMWF have been night and day past this weekend...

From the HPC today
GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONALS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DAY 4.5 (22/00Z)
WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY MIGRATING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE 2 PIECES OF
GUIDANCE WITH THIS OVERALL AREAL SPREAD OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH DAY 6 IN THE MIDWEST...EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND
WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY DAY 4...THERE IS REASONABLE
EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTIC
FRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48
HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO
SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

[TWCCraig]

18z GFS through hour 180 has 0.01" of precip 

Ridiculous considering all this cold air that's coming. 12z GFS had a cutter next Friday (storm that tracks north&west of here, bringing us rain), to a 18z GFS suppressed OTS solution. 12z ECMWF gives us a lot of snow with this.

[toxictwister00]

Arctic COLD Returns on the ECMWF! It literally drops the elbow from the sky on us!

[WeatherWitness]

OK, am I looking at this right?  It's supposed to be warmer here than in Miami or Key West, FL on Sunday?!?!

Our forecasted high is 66°F for Sunday.  Miami's is 62°F.  Key West's is 61°F.  This is according to the NWS.