2012-2013 Winter Outlook

[toxictwister00]

I know it's rather early still, but since it won't be but about another month or so for most weather sites to release their Winter outlooks. I figured I would start this now since Accuweather seems to be one of the earliest ones to release one. It may have been just luck but they did nail the prediction for the Southeast Region. I don't know how they verified for other regions.

I might also post a Winter Outlook, but it will be regional for now. I might work on one nationally also.



SOURCE: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820

[gt1racerlHDl]

As much as i want alot of snow this winter i won't be surprised if all we get is frigid cold spells in New England.

[toxictwister00]

About the only thing I feel confident about so far for this winter. I'll work on a full outlook in November.

[TWCCraig]

I will be confident about this winter's forecast if we were able to predict the NAO values to far out dates. Being that the NAO is the prominent force in controlling winters in the US, it's way too early to see what will happen. Usually you can tell by the end of October what the winter is going to be like. For example, signs such as a early season snowstorm tend to lead to warmer winters, like what happened in the 2011-2012 winter season.

[TWCToday]

As much as i'd like to believe it i've heard mixed stories in the weather community. Plus Accuweathers track record is hit or miss. Granted a lot of people got last winter wrong



NYC got 4.5 in of snow last season.

[toxictwister00]

The only region I think they nailed right last winter was the Southeast. The most disappointing winter since 2006-2007 since that's the last winter where we saw NO measurable snowfall. Only snow showers/flurries about 2-3 days the entire 2011-2012 winter.

[Mr. Rainman]

Accuweather has had god-awful accuracy with the Northern Plains the last several years. I noticed they said the worst of cold and winter would hit the region last winter - we had one of the driest and warmest winters on record during that time.

[TWCmatthew]

I'm not really a fan of long range/seasonal winter forecasts because there are too many variables. For example, the El Nino/La Nina (even though that can be predicted with fair accuracy several months ahead.) However, if you have a positive NAO almost the whole year, and forecasters are predicting a winter with well below average snowfall for the Ohio Valley, but the NAO breifly goes negative (among other factors such as position of a trough, etc) around the time a deepening sub 985 mb low moves up the Appalachians, some places could get their average yearly snowfall (and more) in just one storm. Basically, seasonal forecasting is nothing more than a blurry generalization.

[Lightning]

I know it's rather early still, but since it won't be but about another month or so for most weather sites to release their Winter outlooks. I figured I would start this now since Accuweather seems to be one of the earliest ones to release one. It may have been just luck but they did nail the prediction for the Southeast Region. I don't know how they verified for other regions.

I might also post a Winter Outlook, but it will be regional for now. I might work on one nationally also.



SOURCE: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820

That graphic looks like an El Nino winter, which is what the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting.

[toxictwister00]

Farmer's Almanac 2013 Winter Outlook Released



Snibbits from Article...

For the coming season, we’re predicting that winter will return to some – but not all – areas. We think it will be a “winter of contraries, as if Old Man Winter were cutting the country in half. The eastern half of the country will see plenty of cold and snow. The western half will experience relatively warm and dry condition. In other words, as in the political arena, the climate this winter will render us a nation divided.

We predict that real winter weather will return to areas from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Most eastern states – as far south as the Gulf Coast – will see snowier than normal conditions and cooler temperatures.

We are “red flagging” February 12–15 and March 20–23 for major coastal storms along the Atlantic seaboard; storms bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation.

But on the other side of the country, winter will continue its hiatus for another year. The forecast for west of the Continental Divide – the Pacific Northwest, desert Southwest, Pacific Coast – calls for mild temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

For much of the drought-stricken prairie region, an average amount of winter precipitation will bring long awaited relief.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2012/08/26/will-winter-return-with-a-vengeance/

[gt1racerlHDl]

I bought the almanac last week and was surprised to see the cold would be more into Southern New England than usual. We'll see if the snowy part will be true but i have feelings it will be a dry winter here in New England again.

[toxictwister00]

I wasn't really surprised by anything they said for the CONUS as a whole, but I like how they're obviously trying to keep their accuracy rate as high as possible when mentioning about East Coast storms in February/March. They referenced it as "heavy precipitation" rather than specifying if it was going to be wintry precipitation or not. That allows them to be right regardless whether it's a rain storm or snow/sleet/freezing rain storm.

[TWCCraig]

I don't know about you guys but I think this is going to be a very extreme winter for the entire northern hemisphere. It can turn out to be a remarkable warm winter for many, or it can turn out to be a brutally cold and snowy winter for many. I think the odds of a normal winter aren't likely.

Given the fact that we have a record-shattering low sea ice extent right now, I think this can open the door for some crazy temperature departures across much of the northern hemisphere. In studies, it's becoming more clear that lower sea ice contents and extents have been altering the jet stream patterns, causing greater dips and ridges over certain areas. I think there are two situations can happen. If NAO goes negative, it will likely stay negative for the majority of the winter, and bring pro-dominantly cold and snowy weather to the eastern US. If it goes positive, we are likely to see yet another warm winter. I want you guys to see how lower sea ice extents can cause such dramatic winters.

2010 Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Led to a cold & snowy winter across eastern US (2010-2011 Winter Season)
2011 Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Led to a remarkable warm and snow-less winter is US, remarkable cold and snowy winter in Europe (2011-2012 Winter Season)
2012 Record Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Cold & Snowy Winter or Very Warm Winter for US & Europe

Take a look at the 12z GFS, and go out to surface temperatures for Sep 23 - 27th, extremely below average temperatures are expected across the northern US. Some solutions even indicate snow might be possible for areas in northern Minnesota, northern North Dakota, and northern Michigan around the Sep 23 - 27th time frame. Only a slight glimpse of what this upcoming winter might bring us. 

[Mr. Rainman]

As much as I would like to see snow the last week of September, GFS historically has had a bad tendency to overdo precipitation over the Northern Plains. The temperatures it has done very well with, however, so even though it may be cold enough, right now I have my doubts about snow during that time.

[toxictwister00]

There's a member at AmWx forums named GaWx who's a serious guru for statistical information when it comes to -+AO, -+NAO, and -+PNA in relation to El Ninos/La Ninas.

I liking a lot of the information he's been gathering up on weak El Nino following a La Nina. It's very detailed and thorough. It's getting harder and harder for me not to get a little anxious and excited about what this Winter might bring. If we can get at least one measurable snow event this Winter, that's saying a million times more about this Winter than last Winter.