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Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Winter Weather => Topic started by: toxictwister00 on August 15, 2012, 07:59:07 PM

Title: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on August 15, 2012, 07:59:07 PM
I know it's rather early still, but since it won't be but about another month or so for most weather sites to release their Winter outlooks. I figured I would start this now since Accuweather seems to be one of the earliest ones to release one. It may have been just luck but they did nail the prediction for the Southeast Region. I don't know how they verified for other regions.

I might also post a Winter Outlook, but it will be regional for now. I might work on one nationally also. :yes:

(http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2012/590x393_08131507_winter2012-13graphic.jpg)

SOURCE: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on August 15, 2012, 08:59:13 PM
As much as i want alot of snow this winter i won't be surprised if all we get is frigid cold spells in New England.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on August 15, 2012, 09:38:36 PM
About the only thing I feel confident about so far for this winter. I'll work on a full outlook in November.



Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TWCCraig on August 15, 2012, 10:11:35 PM
I will be confident about this winter's forecast if we were able to predict the NAO values to far out dates. Being that the NAO is the prominent force in controlling winters in the US, it's way too early to see what will happen. Usually you can tell by the end of October what the winter is going to be like. For example, signs such as a early season snowstorm tend to lead to warmer winters, like what happened in the 2011-2012 winter season.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TWCToday on August 15, 2012, 11:03:02 PM
As much as i'd like to believe it i've heard mixed stories in the weather community. Plus Accuweathers track record is hit or miss. Granted a lot of people got last winter wrong

(http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2011/590x393_10041805_2011-12%20winter%20highlights%20us.jpg)
(http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2011/590x393_10051514_wintercitiessnow.jpg)
NYC got 4.5 in of snow last season.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on August 15, 2012, 11:29:33 PM
The only region I think they nailed right last winter was the Southeast. The most disappointing winter since 2006-2007 since that's the last winter where we saw NO measurable snowfall. Only snow showers/flurries about 2-3 days the entire 2011-2012 winter. :(

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SD_jMNi-E-g/ToxwBEJm2fI/AAAAAAAAFO0/1lqA5l5QLPE/s1600/590x393_10041752_2011-12%252520southeast.jpg)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Mr. Rainman on August 16, 2012, 12:19:13 AM
Accuweather has had god-awful accuracy with the Northern Plains the last several years. I noticed they said the worst of cold and winter would hit the region last winter - we had one of the driest and warmest winters on record during that time.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TWCmatthew on August 16, 2012, 12:09:35 PM
I'm not really a fan of long range/seasonal winter forecasts because there are too many variables. For example, the El Nino/La Nina (even though that can be predicted with fair accuracy several months ahead.) However, if you have a positive NAO almost the whole year, and forecasters are predicting a winter with well below average snowfall for the Ohio Valley, but the NAO breifly goes negative (among other factors such as position of a trough, etc) around the time a deepening sub 985 mb low moves up the Appalachians, some places could get their average yearly snowfall (and more) in just one storm. Basically, seasonal forecasting is nothing more than a blurry generalization.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Lightning on August 30, 2012, 09:04:01 PM
I know it's rather early still, but since it won't be but about another month or so for most weather sites to release their Winter outlooks. I figured I would start this now since Accuweather seems to be one of the earliest ones to release one. It may have been just luck but they did nail the prediction for the Southeast Region. I don't know how they verified for other regions.

I might also post a Winter Outlook, but it will be regional for now. I might work on one nationally also. :yes:

([url]http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2012/590x393_08131507_winter2012-13graphic.jpg[/url])

SOURCE: [url]http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820[/url] ([url]http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820[/url])
That graphic looks like an El Nino winter, which is what the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on September 06, 2012, 10:06:14 AM
Farmer's Almanac 2013 Winter Outlook Released

(http://www.farmersalmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/2013USFA-Winter-Map-SMALL.jpg)

Snibbits from Article...
Quote
For the coming season, we’re predicting that winter will return to some – but not all – areas. We think it will be a “winter of contraries, as if Old Man Winter were cutting the country in half. The eastern half of the country will see plenty of cold and snow. The western half will experience relatively warm and dry condition. In other words, as in the political arena, the climate this winter will render us a nation divided.


Quote
We predict that real winter weather will return to areas from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Most eastern states – as far south as the Gulf Coast – will see snowier than normal conditions and cooler temperatures.

We are “red flagging” February 12–15 and March 20–23 for major coastal storms along the Atlantic seaboard; storms bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation.

But on the other side of the country, winter will continue its hiatus for another year. The forecast for west of the Continental Divide – the Pacific Northwest, desert Southwest, Pacific Coast – calls for mild temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

For much of the drought-stricken prairie region, an average amount of winter precipitation will bring long awaited relief.


http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2012/08/26/will-winter-return-with-a-vengeance/ (http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2012/08/26/will-winter-return-with-a-vengeance/)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on September 06, 2012, 11:29:03 AM
I bought the almanac last week and was surprised to see the cold would be more into Southern New England than usual. We'll see if the snowy part will be true but i have feelings it will be a dry winter here in New England again.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on September 06, 2012, 11:36:25 AM
I wasn't really surprised by anything they said for the CONUS as a whole, but I like how they're obviously trying to keep their accuracy rate as high as possible when mentioning about East Coast storms in February/March. They referenced it as "heavy precipitation" rather than specifying if it was going to be wintry precipitation or not. That allows them to be right regardless whether it's a rain storm or snow/sleet/freezing rain storm. :rolleyes:
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TWCCraig on September 14, 2012, 04:16:25 PM
I don't know about you guys but I think this is going to be a very extreme winter for the entire northern hemisphere. It can turn out to be a remarkable warm winter for many, or it can turn out to be a brutally cold and snowy winter for many. I think the odds of a normal winter aren't likely.

Given the fact that we have a record-shattering low sea ice extent right now, I think this can open the door for some crazy temperature departures across much of the northern hemisphere. In studies, it's becoming more clear that lower sea ice contents and extents have been altering the jet stream patterns, causing greater dips and ridges over certain areas. I think there are two situations can happen. If NAO goes negative, it will likely stay negative for the majority of the winter, and bring pro-dominantly cold and snowy weather to the eastern US. If it goes positive, we are likely to see yet another warm winter. I want you guys to see how lower sea ice extents can cause such dramatic winters.

2010 Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Led to a cold & snowy winter across eastern US (2010-2011 Winter Season)
2011 Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Led to a remarkable warm and snow-less winter is US, remarkable cold and snowy winter in Europe (2011-2012 Winter Season)
2012 Record Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Cold & Snowy Winter or Very Warm Winter for US & Europe

Take a look at the 12z GFS, and go out to surface temperatures for Sep 23 - 27th, extremely below average temperatures are expected across the northern US. Some solutions even indicate snow might be possible for areas in northern Minnesota, northern North Dakota, and northern Michigan around the Sep 23 - 27th time frame. Only a slight glimpse of what this upcoming winter might bring us.  :thinking:
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Mr. Rainman on September 14, 2012, 05:52:19 PM
As much as I would like to see snow the last week of September, GFS historically has had a bad tendency to overdo precipitation over the Northern Plains. The temperatures it has done very well with, however, so even though it may be cold enough, right now I have my doubts about snow during that time.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on September 14, 2012, 06:25:40 PM
There's a member at AmWx forums named GaWx who's a serious guru for statistical information when it comes to -+AO, -+NAO, and -+PNA in relation to El Ninos/La Ninas.

I liking a lot of the information he's been gathering up on weak El Nino following a La Nina. It's very detailed and thorough. :yes: It's getting harder and harder for me not to get a little anxious and excited about what this Winter might bring. If we can get at least one measurable snow event this Winter, that's saying a million times more about this Winter than last Winter. <_<
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Zach on September 14, 2012, 06:39:28 PM
I'm really hoping for a much stronger Winter in Florida this year.. hopefully more frosts and cold days/evenings. I know it's not gonna be as strong as the 2009-2010 Winter, but at least the general prediction can be comparable. :yes:

Winter is by far my favorite season.. I really like seeing the low temps down into Florida (teens and twenties!!) and being able to dress up in pants and a jacket! :biggrin:
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TWCCraig on October 02, 2012, 05:50:59 PM
12z GFS shows possibility of up to several inches of snow for interior northeast this upcoming weekend.  :wacko:

(http://imageshack.us/a/img338/4795/gfs32012100212f120snowi.png)

Higher quality image: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=10&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=12&fhour=24&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false (http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=10&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=12&fhour=24&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Trevor on October 02, 2012, 07:27:53 PM
Wow...and I'll be in Washington, DC for a field trip! It would be so cool to at least see some flurries while we were there!
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on October 02, 2012, 09:34:13 PM
Quote
1. DISTURBED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF ALASKA
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A WINTER STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING WINTER STORM ATHENA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...WINTER STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER NIZIOL

NOTE: This is a joke, I made it up given TWC's latest "buzzing" news. :lol:
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Mr. Rainman on October 03, 2012, 05:00:45 PM
Quote
1. DISTURBED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF ALASKA
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A WINTER STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING WINTER STORM ATHENA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...WINTER STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER NIZIOL

NOTE: This is a joke, I made it up given TWC's latest "buzzing" news. :lol:

Quote
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON WINTER STORM ATHENA...CENTERED 40 MILES NORTH OF BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE VIEW THE PUBLIC ADVISORY.

The follow-up.  :rofl2:
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 11, 2012, 12:08:23 AM
Man, I hope this doesn't turn out to be a fluke! A Bowling Ball ULL! :D

Good News: It's not 300+ hrs away from happening, it's in a realistic timeframe (under 200 hours)
Bad News: Cold air is kinda lacking and this is still about a week away (17th - 19th timeframe) and this has been only one run to show this type of system, however a system of some form has been showing up around this time off and on. I think the EURO showed something similar to this a day or two ago though.

(http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2012121100/USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_186.gif)

(http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2012121100/USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_186.gif)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TWCToday on December 11, 2012, 03:20:37 AM
Theres been a hint at something along this time period but I have yet to see a model run hold anything for more than 1 run.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 11, 2012, 07:48:23 AM
6z GFS still has the ULL, but it's further north and not quite as defined as it was on the 00z run.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 20, 2012, 10:46:55 AM
I'm really liking the pattern we're heading into: Cool and Stormy I've been awaiting it long enough. :D

We might wrap up this week with up to 2-3 inches of rainfall, I can't EVER remember the last time this entire year we saw that much rainfall in a one week timespan, so it's more than welcome to stick around by me. :yes:
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 21, 2012, 05:20:53 PM
I mentioned the stormier and cooler pattern setting up according the global computer models over the next couple of weeks. For those of you who are snow lovers and live east of the MS River, you may be seeing more flakes in your future.

Time periods of interest:
December 25th - 27th, 2012
December 28th - 30th, 2012
January 1st - 3rd, 2013

I'll certainly be watching the latter timeframe for my area VERY closely. :yes: I feel the overall pattern were heading into will support something potentially wintry and to be frank, climatology supports it too, Atlanta usually sees the highest frequency of snowstorms in the month of January and within the the first 10 days. ex: January 9-10, 2011, January 7-8, 2010, January 2-3, 2002, however, the remaining 2/3rds of the month are favorable as well. :yes: In addition, we have seen our nastiest icestorms within January as well...ex: January 24-25, 2000 (the Superbowl was being hosted here at the time this icestorm hit) and January 29, 2005 (Historically, the worst icestorm of the 21st century; previous title was held by the January 24-25, 2000 icestorm)


Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: WeatherWitness on December 24, 2012, 12:40:31 PM
A SIGNIFICANT winter storm will be dumping several inches of snow in areas of the central and southern Plains, including Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri through 6Z (midnight CST) Christmas Day/the day after Christmas.  The latest GFS model run shows up to a foot of snow in parts of Arkansas and Missouri and up to 10 inches of snow in central/northwest Oklahoma.  The NAM is a little more ambitious, with up to 18 inches of snow in parts of Oklahoma!  We'll just have to wait and see how this all plays out.

BUT...regardless of the total amount, it's shaping up to be a white Christmas for some of you after all!
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 24, 2012, 06:37:01 PM
Blizzard Watches are in effect across SE Missouri, Southeastern Illinois, Southwestern Indiana and counties bordering the western end of Kentucky.

(http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/5208/mapxi.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/703/mapxi.png/)

Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 25, 2012, 01:16:56 PM
Blizzard Warnings have been expanded northward to include Indianapolis metro area as well as Blizzard Warnings have been added to Southwestern Oklahoma, just south of Oklahoma City, OK.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: WeatherWitness on December 25, 2012, 01:31:52 PM
Yes, in response to Tavores' post above, blizzard warnings are now in effect for 8 states: Texas (far northern), Oklahoma (southwestern), Arkansas (northeastern), Missouri (southeastern), Tennessee (far western), Kentucky (far western), Illinois (southeastern), and Indiana (central/southwestern).

This is quite a storm!!
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 27, 2012, 10:50:48 AM
Although El Nino is technically dead per se, the pattern for these last 2/3rds of December has been El Nino-ish and so far January looks to be off to the same start. I sure hope so! I've seen about 3-4 inches of rain within one week (Dec. 19-26). I can't remember the last time that's happened. :o
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 08, 2013, 11:59:50 AM
It's always fascinating to me to hear that areas in TX, almost down near the Mexican border and have elevations as low or lower than New Orleans has seen more measurable snow than Chicago. :o If we end up beating Chicago to a major winter storm down here first then you know Chicago is having a pretty sad winter. :P
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 12, 2013, 09:07:02 AM
Something worth keeping tabs on... :thinking:

I would venture out to say this is a fluke given the GFS's cold bias, however it helps the GFS has support from the European model as well.

On the 00z GFS, notice the 1052mb High sliding south into Montana, believe me as I say this thing ain't messin' around with us on this run. As the run progresses the high (slightly weaker) heads SE until it's situated over the TN Valley, even then it's still around 1040mb!

00z GFS 850mb Surface Temps (January 22 - 24th, 2013)
NOTE: I converted these temperatures from the maps, so there could be a margin of error. Also I didn't post specific highs/lows I'm just posting some of the coldest temps observed from the maps over this time period.

Minneapolis, MN: -32.8F
Duluth, MN: -38.2F
Chicago, IL: -25.6F
Columbus, OH: -22F
St. Louis, MO: -16.6F
Nashville, TN: -14.8F
Norfolk, VA: -11.2F
Charlotte, NC: -2.2F
Atlanta, GA: 0F
Columbia, SC: 5F
Birmingham, AL: 1.4F
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Zach on January 12, 2013, 09:41:43 AM
Got any Florida temps there?  :P
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 12, 2013, 10:04:31 AM
Got any Florida temps there?  :P


To give a summary, across the Florida Panhandle, temperatures would range from the 20s to 32 degrees. This is on Thursday, January 24th. Temperatures across Central FL range from the 30s (Tampa to Ft. Myers) 40s (Sarasota to Belle Glade) 50s (Naples to Miami) and 60s along the Keys.

2m Temperatures - Hour 300
NOTE: Although this is considered La La Land on the GFS, keep in mind the cold air begins filtering in as early as hour 216 into the CONUS from this high.

(http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/8881/00zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtem.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/843/00zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtem.gif/)

EDIT: I also need to make a correction on the strength of the high, it appears to peak at 1058mb in Canada.
(http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/9003/00zgfs850mbtslpp12228.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/11/00zgfs850mbtslpp12228.gif/)

00z Euro Hour 240, right on par with the 00z GFS. :yes:
(http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/1048/00zeuro850mbtslpus240.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/525/00zeuro850mbtslpus240.gif/)

00z GFS Hour 240
(http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/4976/00zgfs850mbtslpp12240.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/713/00zgfs850mbtslpp12240.gif/)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 15, 2013, 03:53:51 PM
I don't know if it's because our NWS office got a new M.I.C (Meteorologist In Charge) last year or what, but I don't care. Our office is on their A-Game when it comes to this ULL or "Helen" as TWC would call it now. :P They are being so open minded to all the possibilities of what could happen Thu/Fri. I was pleasantly surprised to see a detailed SWS issued today which mentioned snow could fall as far south as LaGrange, GA, but they didn't stop there, from the weather briefing video below, they even entertain the idea of Winter Storm Watches, not Advisories, WATCHES to be issued tonight or tomorrow. (3:36 in the video)

Now you're probably wondering, Ok, so what? I don't see what the big deal is? Well if you've read any of our NWS office's AFDs you would know they were extremely conservative to any idea of wintry weather in GA, no matter if every single model supported the idea, it used to drive me up the freakin' wall. This year they've done a complete 180 so I say kudos to them for laying out all the scenarios from least to most likely to happen (as of right now). :clap:

Sidenote: Are there other NWS offices that have Youtube channels like ours? Our office seems to have just opened theirs a few days ago.
Winter Weather Potential (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWoXbqFuA04#)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TWCCraig on January 16, 2013, 02:31:55 PM
Absolutely ridiculous how places much south of here, places that don't normally see a lot of snow, have and will get more snow from one storm than our entire season total so far.
 :facepalm:



Might change if we could just get some snow! Next chance is Friday.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 16, 2013, 02:56:43 PM
Absolutely ridiculous how places much south of here, places that don't normally see a lot of snow, have and will get more snow from one storm than our entire season total so far.
 :facepalm:



Might change if we could just get some snow! Next chance is Friday.

What's even weirder is some parts of NC/VA could potentially see up to a foot of snow if recent models are to be believed.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 16, 2013, 05:56:36 PM
Winter is here in full force - we've had snow on the ground since late November and the wind keeps blowing it around like crazy. Cold snap arrives this weekend... high of -11 on Monday!  :blink: :brr:
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 16, 2013, 09:19:50 PM
Here's the call map I made at another forum.

(http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/8747/snowforecast1.png)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TWCCraig on January 16, 2013, 10:23:58 PM
Here's the call map I made at another forum.

What other forum are you on? I'm on American Weather a lot in the NYC metro forums, if you're on there.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 16, 2013, 10:40:06 PM
Here's the call map I made at another forum.

What other forum are you on? I'm on American Weather a lot in the NYC metro forums, if you're on there.

I'm a member there (with the same username I have here) but I mainly hang around/post in the SE forums.

I posted this map at another weather forum called Talkweather.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 18, 2013, 06:15:36 PM
Interesting... :thinking: If anyone has been following the models lately, the GFS/ECMWF have been night and day past this weekend...

From the HPC today
GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONALS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DAY 4.5 (22/00Z)
WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY MIGRATING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE 2 PIECES OF
GUIDANCE WITH THIS OVERALL AREAL SPREAD OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH DAY 6 IN THE MIDWEST...EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND
WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY DAY 4...THERE IS REASONABLE
EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTIC
FRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48
HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO
SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TWCCraig on January 18, 2013, 06:26:19 PM
18z GFS through hour 180 has 0.01" of precip  :censored:

Ridiculous considering all this cold air that's coming. 12z GFS had a cutter next Friday (storm that tracks north&west of here, bringing us rain), to a 18z GFS suppressed OTS solution. 12z ECMWF gives us a lot of snow with this.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 19, 2013, 02:03:45 AM
Arctic COLD Returns on the ECMWF! It literally drops the elbow from the sky on us! :o

(http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/2511/00zeuro850mbtslpus192.gif)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 15, 2013, 05:20:12 PM
OK, am I looking at this right?  It's supposed to be warmer here than in Miami or Key West, FL on Sunday?!?! :blink: :blink:

Our forecasted high is 66°F for Sunday.  Miami's is 62°F.  Key West's is 61°F.  This is according to the NWS.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Zach on February 15, 2013, 05:22:56 PM
Our high is only 58 on Sunday.. man is that cold! :o
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Zach on February 17, 2013, 10:38:03 PM
Wow, talk about it being warm in the Great Plains right now compared to Florida! :o

(http://i.imgur.com/zUpZA9P.jpg)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 18, 2013, 03:29:48 PM
Winter Storm Q: Oh how can I take this one seriously? :P

BTW, is this the farthest west that TWC has ever named a winter storm?  All these systems come from the west, but it seems like TWC doesn't get around to naming them until they reach the middle of the country.  Perhaps this storm will have bigger than usual impacts in the west.

(I still don't understand TWC's criteria for naming winter storms.)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 20, 2013, 09:02:03 PM
Oooo! That's pretty! This is one heck of a snowstorm taking over a large real estate of the county! :wub:

(http://i.imgur.com/kyCrwl2.png)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 24, 2013, 01:32:14 PM
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS are possible with this next winter storm system taking aim at the Rockies and Plains.  I feel it's not everyday you see blizzard warnings in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. :P
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: phw115wvwx on February 26, 2013, 02:41:17 PM
That same storm walloping the Plains gave my area the dreaded dose of freezing rain to meet warning criteria along the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: Zach on February 27, 2013, 06:25:48 PM
Snow, in Florida???

(https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/58397_486934091366266_1910180797_n.png)

This is Sunday morning. One of the local Tampa chief meteorologists posted this to his Facebook page. It's from the 12z GFS run. :o
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 27, 2013, 07:04:31 PM
Snow, in Florida???

(https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/58397_486934091366266_1910180797_n.png)

This is Sunday morning. One of the local Tampa chief meteorologists posted this to his Facebook page. It's from the 12z GFS run. :o


Text data from that run doesn't support snow for you Zach  :no: , the closest I can see where you could get to seeing any wintry precip would be at hr 96. The GFS has been hinting at your area to see snow for about a week now btw.

Code: [Select]
Station ID: KLAL Lat:   27.98 Long:   82.01                                                       
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 27FEB 2013
  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle     High     Max    Min  Sfc Snowfall
                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp    mb    %  TEXT   Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis    in
   0 02/27 12Z   58     57     317       4    0.00  0.00    567    578   16.2  -8.8 1013.9   0          CLR       CLR       CLR    ****   ****  4.1    0.0
   3 02/27 15Z   66     57     324       4    0.00  0.00    566    579   15.6  -9.1 1015.2  98          CLR    148FEW164 362BKN428   66     58 20.0    0.0
   6 02/27 18Z   72     57     282       5    0.00  0.00    567    579   15.0  -9.0 1014.2  84          CLR    147FEW164 356BKN423   72     58 20.0    0.0
   9 02/27 21Z   73     56     281       7    0.00  0.00    567    578   14.6  -9.6 1012.8  64          CLR       CLR    364BKN421   74     72 20.0    0.0
  12 02/28 00Z   63     54     284       7    0.00  0.00    566    578   14.2  -9.1 1014.0  72          CLR       CLR    367BKN419   74     63 20.0    0.0
  15 02/28 03Z   58     51     292       6    0.00  0.00    565    578   13.8 -10.4 1015.5  97          CLR       CLR    358BKN429   63     58 20.0    0.0
  18 02/28 06Z   54     48     312       5    0.00  0.00    564    577   13.4  -9.2 1015.2  82          CLR       CLR    364BKN428   63     54 16.4    0.0
  21 02/28 09Z   52     48     317       5    0.00  0.00    563    575   12.2  -8.2 1014.5  36          CLR       CLR    384SCT433   54     52  9.2    0.0
  24 02/28 12Z   51     49     325       4    0.00  0.00    563    576   11.0  -8.3 1015.5  35          CLR       CLR    388SCT432   54     51  6.0    0.0
  27 02/28 15Z   63     51     310       4    0.00  0.00    562    576   10.5  -8.8 1015.9   2          CLR       CLR    361FEW393   63     51 20.0    0.0
  30 02/28 18Z   70     52     281       8    0.00  0.00    563    575    7.5  -8.8 1014.9   2          CLR       CLR       CLR      70     51 20.0    0.0
  33 02/28 21Z   69     52     288      11    0.00  0.00    562    573    7.1  -9.0 1013.2   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      71     69 20.0    0.0
  36 03/01 00Z   59     50     301       8    0.00  0.00    561    574    7.8  -9.1 1014.3   8          CLR       CLR    368FEW392   71     59 20.0    0.0
  39 03/01 03Z   54     48     304       5    0.00  0.00    560    574    8.6  -9.2 1015.5  45          CLR       CLR    352SCT392   59     54 15.6    0.0
  42 03/01 06Z   52     45     300       5    0.00  0.00    559    572    8.1  -9.3 1015.4  30          CLR       CLR    350SCT391   59     52 20.0    0.0
  45 03/01 09Z   49     41     348       6    0.00  0.00    558    570    6.9  -9.2 1014.7   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      52     49 20.0    0.0
  48 03/01 12Z   45     35     360       6    0.00  0.00    557    570    7.7 -10.2 1015.9   1          CLR       CLR       CLR      52     45 20.0    0.0
  51 03/01 15Z   53     37     335       6    0.00  0.00    555    570    6.9 -10.9 1018.1   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      53     45 20.0    0.0
  54 03/01 18Z   60     41     303       8    0.00  0.00    555    569    5.0 -11.2 1016.6  12       032FEW041 148FEW196    CLR      60     45 20.0    0.0
  57 03/01 21Z   58     41     297      10    0.00  0.00    555    567    5.0 -10.6 1014.8  94          CLR    149BKN213    CLR      60     57 20.0    0.0
  60 03/02 00Z   52     38     302       8    0.00  0.00    554    567    5.5 -10.2 1015.8  97 -RA      CLR    142BKN221    CLR      60     52 20.0    0.0
  63 03/02 03Z   51     39     302       5    0.00  0.00    553    567    4.7 -10.2 1017.1 100          CLR    154OVC233    CLR      52     51 20.0    0.0
  66 03/02 06Z   51     40     300       4    0.00  0.00    552    565    1.3 -11.7 1016.7  99          CLR    156OVC227    CLR      52     51 20.0    0.0
  69 03/02 09Z   50     40     349       4    0.00  0.00    550    562    0.4 -11.9 1015.7  94          CLR    150BKN221    CLR      51     49 20.0    0.0
  72 03/02 12Z   44     36      16       5    0.00  0.00    547    561    0.6 -11.2 1016.3  74          CLR    155BKN223 348FEW386   51     44 20.0    0.0
  75 03/02 15Z   52     37     345       5    0.00  0.00    545    559    0.2 -12.6 1017.1  20       040FEW057    CLR       CLR      52     44 20.0    0.0
  78 03/02 18Z   53     42     294       8    0.01  0.00    543    557   -0.2 -14.0 1015.7  33 -RA   040SCT092    CLR       CLR      55     44 20.0    0.0
  81 03/02 21Z   55     41     291      12    0.02  0.01    542    555   -0.6 -15.6 1014.4  83 -RA   037BKN086    CLR       CLR      55     52 20.0    0.0
  84 03/03 00Z   48     38     305       6    0.00  0.00    541    553   -1.0 -15.9 1015.2  50 -RA   039BKN083    CLR       CLR      55     48 20.0    0.0
  87 03/03 03Z   48     39     288       3    0.00  0.00    538    551   -0.6 -20.7 1015.7  27       037SCT085    CLR       CLR      48     46 20.0    0.0
  90 03/03 06Z   47     41     288       3    0.00  0.00    540    552   -0.7 -20.8 1015.1  47       033SCT084    CLR       CLR      48     46 14.1    0.0
  93 03/03 09Z   45     40     341       6    0.00  0.00    538    550   -1.5 -21.0 1014.1  61       037BKN075    CLR       CLR      47     45 12.0    0.0
  96 03/03 12Z   41     33       3       6    0.00  0.00    534    547   -1.9 -22.5 1016.1  54 -RA   046BKN081    CLR       CLR      47     41 15.8    0.0
  99 03/03 15Z   46     36     316       6    0.01  0.00    532    547   -3.2 -24.4 1018.1  91 -RA   056BKN100 111FEW124    CLR      46     41 18.1    0.0
 102 03/03 18Z   51     36     297      13    0.01  0.01    535    549   -3.3 -25.0 1016.7  85 -RA   043BKN088 111FEW125    CLR      51     41 20.0    0.0
 105 03/03 21Z   51     34     301      13    0.00  0.00    536    549   -3.3 -25.1 1015.7  72 -RA   045BKN063    CLR       CLR      52     51 20.0    0.0
 108 03/04 00Z   44     34     304       7    0.00  0.00    536    551   -3.4 -24.7 1017.7  44 -RA   046SCT063    CLR       CLR      52     44 20.0    0.0
 111 03/04 03Z   43     35     316       4    0.00  0.00    536    552   -4.1 -24.5 1020.0   6       044FEW055    CLR       CLR      44     43 20.0    0.0
 114 03/04 06Z   41     33     351       6    0.00  0.00    539    555   -3.3 -20.0 1019.6  12       046FEW057    CLR       CLR      44     41 20.0    0.0
 117 03/04 09Z   37     29     350       5    0.00  0.00    543    559   -2.2 -17.5 1019.7   1       047FEW064    CLR       CLR      41     37 20.0    0.0
 120 03/04 12Z   35     28     346       5    0.00  0.00    546    564    1.4 -15.4 1021.3   1       045FEW060    CLR       CLR      41     35 20.0    0.0
http://charlie.wxcaster.com/text/GFSSFC/GFS_KLAL.txt (http://charlie.wxcaster.com/text/GFSSFC/GFS_KLAL.txt)
Title: Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
Post by: TampaMillTWC88 on March 01, 2013, 01:09:10 AM
Denis Phillips from WTFS-28 has been mentioning the possibility of some snowflakes mixed with rain very early Sunday morning.