2012-2013 Winter Outlook

[Zach]

I'm really hoping for a much stronger Winter in Florida this year.. hopefully more frosts and cold days/evenings. I know it's not gonna be as strong as the 2009-2010 Winter, but at least the general prediction can be comparable.

Winter is by far my favorite season.. I really like seeing the low temps down into Florida (teens and twenties!!) and being able to dress up in pants and a jacket!

[TWCCraig]

12z GFS shows possibility of up to several inches of snow for interior northeast this upcoming weekend. 



Higher quality image: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=10&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=12&fhour=24&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Trevor]

Wow...and I'll be in Washington, DC for a field trip! It would be so cool to at least see some flurries while we were there!

[toxictwister00]

1. DISTURBED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF ALASKA
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A WINTER STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING WINTER STORM ATHENA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...WINTER STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER NIZIOL

NOTE: This is a joke, I made it up given TWC's latest "buzzing" news.

[Mr. Rainman]

1. DISTURBED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF ALASKA
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A WINTER STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING WINTER STORM ATHENA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...WINTER STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER NIZIOL

NOTE: This is a joke, I made it up given TWC's latest "buzzing" news.

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON WINTER STORM ATHENA...CENTERED 40 MILES NORTH OF BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE VIEW THE PUBLIC ADVISORY.

The follow-up. 

[toxictwister00]

Man, I hope this doesn't turn out to be a fluke! A Bowling Ball ULL!

Good News: It's not 300+ hrs away from happening, it's in a realistic timeframe (under 200 hours)
Bad News: Cold air is kinda lacking and this is still about a week away (17th - 19th timeframe) and this has been only one run to show this type of system, however a system of some form has been showing up around this time off and on. I think the EURO showed something similar to this a day or two ago though.

[TWCToday]

Theres been a hint at something along this time period but I have yet to see a model run hold anything for more than 1 run.

[toxictwister00]

6z GFS still has the ULL, but it's further north and not quite as defined as it was on the 00z run.

[toxictwister00]

I'm really liking the pattern we're heading into: Cool and Stormy I've been awaiting it long enough.

We might wrap up this week with up to 2-3 inches of rainfall, I can't EVER remember the last time this entire year we saw that much rainfall in a one week timespan, so it's more than welcome to stick around by me.

[toxictwister00]

I mentioned the stormier and cooler pattern setting up according the global computer models over the next couple of weeks. For those of you who are snow lovers and live east of the MS River, you may be seeing more flakes in your future.

Time periods of interest:
December 25th - 27th, 2012
December 28th - 30th, 2012
January 1st - 3rd, 2013

I'll certainly be watching the latter timeframe for my area VERY closely. I feel the overall pattern were heading into will support something potentially wintry and to be frank, climatology supports it too, Atlanta usually sees the highest frequency of snowstorms in the month of January and within the the first 10 days. ex: January 9-10, 2011, January 7-8, 2010, January 2-3, 2002, however, the remaining 2/3rds of the month are favorable as well. In addition, we have seen our nastiest icestorms within January as well...ex: January 24-25, 2000 (the Superbowl was being hosted here at the time this icestorm hit) and January 29, 2005 (Historically, the worst icestorm of the 21st century; previous title was held by the January 24-25, 2000 icestorm)

[WeatherWitness]

A SIGNIFICANT winter storm will be dumping several inches of snow in areas of the central and southern Plains, including Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri through 6Z (midnight CST) Christmas Day/the day after Christmas.  The latest GFS model run shows up to a foot of snow in parts of Arkansas and Missouri and up to 10 inches of snow in central/northwest Oklahoma.  The NAM is a little more ambitious, with up to 18 inches of snow in parts of Oklahoma!  We'll just have to wait and see how this all plays out.

BUT...regardless of the total amount, it's shaping up to be a white Christmas for some of you after all!

[toxictwister00]

Blizzard Watches are in effect across SE Missouri, Southeastern Illinois, Southwestern Indiana and counties bordering the western end of Kentucky.

[toxictwister00]

Blizzard Warnings have been expanded northward to include Indianapolis metro area as well as Blizzard Warnings have been added to Southwestern Oklahoma, just south of Oklahoma City, OK.

[WeatherWitness]

Yes, in response to Tavores' post above, blizzard warnings are now in effect for 8 states: Texas (far northern), Oklahoma (southwestern), Arkansas (northeastern), Missouri (southeastern), Tennessee (far western), Kentucky (far western), Illinois (southeastern), and Indiana (central/southwestern).

This is quite a storm!!

[toxictwister00]

Although El Nino is technically dead per se, the pattern for these last 2/3rds of December has been El Nino-ish and so far January looks to be off to the same start. I sure hope so! I've seen about 3-4 inches of rain within one week (Dec. 19-26). I can't remember the last time that's happened.