TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Mr. Rainman on April 01, 2011, 04:00:44 PM
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I know I've been told not to post threads for every single severe event that occurs in the U.S, but I feel that one coming up warrants its own thread. GFS models are indicating a very strong storm system to slam much of the Eastern United States starting Sunday through Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center is citing a widespread severe threat for the area, with tornado-embedded thunderstorm lines, plus the additional threats of hail and winds.
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This is going to be a really interesting outbreak. It could impact my area on Monday, 4/4 with temps/dew points surging to near 70. Hail, strong winds, and tornadoes would be a concern. We ill monitor this very closely.
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i wish NJ and DE would be under a tornado watch
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I know I nowhere near a weather expert, and Patrick is probably gonna disagree with these pictures ( :bleh: ), but I have made a forecast of where I expect the severe weather to be and what to expect. Yes, it does seem apocalyptic, but I'm basing this off of data from the Weather Channel and insight from the NWS.
Take this with a grain of salt. This is merely an interpretation made by an amateur forecaster. If you want more reliable information on what to expect, confer with a local NWS office or TWC.
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That forecast does seem pretty apocalyptic to me. SPC only has slight risks out for those white areas on your map. I do expect some severe weather, but I don't know if it'll be that widespread yet.
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*bows to Patrick
I had a feeling you would say that. :bleh: Thanks for the insight.
EDIT: The Sunday map white area is actually where the SPC hashed a "significant threat," so I thought it deserved a different color.
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I do have a feeling that the SPC will issue a Moderate Risk of severe storms for Monday about where you have the white shading. Good maps, in my opinion.
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Storm initiation has begun in Iowa and Kansas.
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Wow, golf ball sized hail already in Iowa. This is going to be a long night.
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Wow, looking at the Current Temperature map, it's clearly easy to see the warm/cold "clash" that will be causing the severe weather. :yes:
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Double-posting, but it's amazing that a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms turned into a 100% chance of severe storms with strong winds and even some hail. They rolled in around 4:30 this morning and lasted for about an hour.
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On Tuesday, that system will be moving through Florida, and in the Tampa Bay Area, there is an 80% chance of thunderstorms, and some of the storms could be severe.
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There was a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for Monroe, MI this morning, and a stronger storm moved through around 7AM EDT. But, the most convective activity developed/remained well south of my area this afternoon/tonight.
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The thunderstorms will probably be in my area in 1 hour or less. :) :happy: :thumbsup: I just wish I could have the storms without the drastic drop in temperature. Don't like cold weather. :thumbdown:
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They sounded the sirens here at school just a few minutes ago...the so-called tornado is 15 miles to our Northeast and moving east. It's not coming anywhere NEAR us.
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Severe thunderstorms now moving into my area.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC009-055-073-115-117-050115-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0115.110405T0011Z-110405T0115Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
711 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
ETOWAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
* AT 705 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GARDENDALE TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SARDIS CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNTAIN BROOK...PINSON-CLAY-CHALKVILLE...IRONDALE...SPRINGVILLE...
TRUSSVILLE...CHELSEA...LEEDS AND GADSDEN.
THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 250 THROUGH 282...
INTERSTATE 459 EXIT NUMBERS 17 THROUGH 33...
US 78 EXIT NUMBER 91...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 123 THROUGH 162...
INTERSTATE 59 EXIT NUMBERS 130 THROUGH 188...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
&&
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.
LAT...LON 3409 8578 3395 8574 3396 8587 3391 8590
3392 8595 3385 8606 3377 8604 3368 8615
3369 8620 3365 8616 3355 8619 3350 8629
3339 8637 3339 8636 3316 8666 3372 8696
3414 8635 3411 8630 3420 8618 3422 8589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 280DEG 41KT 3365 8674 3427 8593
$$
61
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An update on that severe thunderstorm warning:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
737 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011
ALC007-065-073-117-125-050115-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-110405T0115Z/
HALE AL-BIBB AL-SHELBY AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-JEFFERSON AL-
737 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON...TUSCALOOSA...WESTERN SHELBY...NORTHERN BIBB AND
NORTHEASTERN HALE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...
AT 733 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ENSLEY TO MOUNDVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIRMINGHAM...BESSEMER...HOMEWOOD...VESTAVIA HILLS...HOOVER...
HELENA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...LIPSCOMB AND U.A.B. CAMPUS.
THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 234 THROUGH 266...
INTERSTATE 459 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 17...
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 87 THROUGH 91...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 62 THROUGH 128...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE`S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
&&
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.
LAT...LON 3348 8732 3368 8684 3321 8663 3282 8769
3299 8773 3300 8771 3303 8771 3303 8774
3314 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 308DEG 27KT 3349 8687 3294 8763
$$
61
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There might be a lot of power out in A-Town tonight. :unsure: Time for me to find a flashlight!
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0354.gif)
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...ATLANTA METRO AREA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...
VALID 050118Z - 050245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 95 CONTINUES.
...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY...POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN ATLANTA METRO AREA
0145-0300Z...
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DISCRETELY PROPAGATE AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD POOL...EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN A
FASTER TRANSLATION ESE. EXTRAPOLATION INCORPORATING THIS SCENARIO
SUGGESTS PRIMARY SQUALL LINE ARRIVING IN NW METRO ATLANTA 0145-0200Z
AND THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTA...INCLUDING HARTSFIELD INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...0230-0330Z.
00Z PEACHTREE CITY SOUNDING EXHIBITED ONLY 300 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT
RAPID SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD INTO THE METRO AREA WILL OCCUR AS
EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 5 DEG F DEW POINT RISE AT NEWNAN GA. THIS WILL
INCREASE BUOYANCY AND COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG TSTMS ACROSS NWRN GA.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT IN NW GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AS CONVECTIVE MODE REMAINS LINEAR. HOWEVER...AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FLOW IN THE
0.5-1KM LAYER CONTINUES TO INCREASE...BOOSTING SRH AMIDST STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HIGHER THREATS FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS
CNTRL AL INTO WCNTRL GA SOUTH OF ATLANTA.
..RACY.. 04/05/2011
ATTN...WFO...FFC...
LAT...LON 34288531 34368437 34228393 33968392 33618438 33418482
33488511 34288531
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0354.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0354.html)
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There might be a lot of power out in A-Town tonight. :unsure: Time for me to find a flashlight!
([url]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0354.gif[/url])
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...ATLANTA METRO AREA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...
VALID 050118Z - 050245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 95 CONTINUES.
...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY...POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN ATLANTA METRO AREA
0145-0300Z...
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DISCRETELY PROPAGATE AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD POOL...EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN A
FASTER TRANSLATION ESE. EXTRAPOLATION INCORPORATING THIS SCENARIO
SUGGESTS PRIMARY SQUALL LINE ARRIVING IN NW METRO ATLANTA 0145-0200Z
AND THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTA...INCLUDING HARTSFIELD INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...0230-0330Z.
00Z PEACHTREE CITY SOUNDING EXHIBITED ONLY 300 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT
RAPID SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD INTO THE METRO AREA WILL OCCUR AS
EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 5 DEG F DEW POINT RISE AT NEWNAN GA. THIS WILL
INCREASE BUOYANCY AND COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG TSTMS ACROSS NWRN GA.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT IN NW GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AS CONVECTIVE MODE REMAINS LINEAR. HOWEVER...AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FLOW IN THE
0.5-1KM LAYER CONTINUES TO INCREASE...BOOSTING SRH AMIDST STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HIGHER THREATS FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS
CNTRL AL INTO WCNTRL GA SOUTH OF ATLANTA.
..RACY.. 04/05/2011
ATTN...WFO...FFC...
LAT...LON 34288531 34368437 34228393 33968392 33618438 33418482
33488511 34288531
[url]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0354.html[/url] ([url]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0354.html[/url])
Yes, looks like it's your turn to have the storms now, SnowManiac.
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The winds today have already been howling, we even briefly lost power earlier this afternoon since the winds on average have been between 30-35mph and it's still howling out of the SSW around 30mph right now. Throw on another 50 to 60 from these storms we'll probably be seeing hurricane force winds. (At least that's my worst fear)
There's also a TVS (Tornado Vortex Signature) showing up in E. AL if it stays on the course of that track, it should scrape the southside of town near Hartsfield Int'l Airport.
(http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=FFC&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.500&noclutter=0&t=1301971234&lat=33.79759979&lon=-84.38659668&label=Atlanta%2C+GA&showstorms=10&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=388&transx=0&transy=148&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&smooth=1)
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Wow, those storms last night were WILD! I can't recall the last time a line of thunderstorms w/ damaging winds turned out to be just that. I estimate that the winds were probably around 50-60mph during the peak, we had probably mothball sized hail, (sounded like trees snapping which is why I went onto my back porch to see if that was the case), on top of that abundant cloud to ground lightning and some impressive thunder, torrential heavy rains along with the hail made it nearly impossible to see very far in distance during the peak of the storm. I got a little nervous at the beginning because it looked like the sky had a greenish tint to it and I we had just lost power and I was thinking to myself, "Don't tell me there's really going to be a tornado coming." Luckily it was a false alarm along with the 3 times we lost power and it automatically came back on. The thunder/lightning and heavy rain went on well past the squalline exiting, I don't think it calmed down until probably around 2am this morning. Before I went to sleep the power outages reported statewide was 147,000, but I'm sure it probably doubled that because the storms were sitting along I-75 in Atlanta when that report came in and it looked like the storms were intensifying once they started approaching Athens and Macon.
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Well, the final totals are in. A record 1,320 storm reports were filed on this system, 1,201 of which dealt with wind damage. The weather channel explains the significance of these numbers here:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/severe-weather-outbreak-early-april_2011-04-05 (http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/severe-weather-outbreak-early-april_2011-04-05)
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Wow, huge storm. And very sad for the destruction/injuries/loss of life during this horrific cyclone.
Well, with the imminent atmospheric danger over for the mean time, another major storm sytem with another potential tornado outbreak looms for this upcoming Sunday into Monday.
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Well, the final totals are in. A record 1,320 storm reports were filed on this system, 1,201 of which dealt with wind damage. The weather channel explains the significance of these numbers here:
I'm actually really surprised at the coverage. This was definitely a huge wind event, and I really didn't think it would reach that scale. SPC's map from April 4, 2011 is also interesting to note as well:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110404_rpts.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110404_rpts.gif)
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Here's a map of all the warning polygons issued.
(http://i52.tinypic.com/fjzuqo.png)
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Here's a map of all the warning polygons issued.
([url]http://i52.tinypic.com/fjzuqo.png[/url])
Wow, very neat.
Man, the severe thunderstorm warnings came so close to my area, but weakened before severe limits before they reached my county. :pinch: