The Pot Belly Stove

[TWCCraig]

Ugh... Is the GFS ALREADY hinting the signs of ANOTHER October snow storm for the interior northeast? Last year when the GFS did that, looked what happened. This exactly what I didn't want. We probably won't get snow, but I definitely don't want the cold temps to arrive this fast. 

Note:
Map = Precip Type
Green = Rain
Red = Freezing Rain/Sleet/Mix
Blue = Snow

[toxictwister00]

Ugh... Is the GFS ALREADY hinting the signs of ANOTHER October snow storm for the interior northeast? Last year when the GFS did that, looked what happened. This exactly what I didn't want. We probably won't get snow, but I definitely don't want the cold temps to arrive this fast. 

There is one difference here however, were not in a La Nina pattern now like we were this time last year as a weak El Nino is still developing and should do so during the winter. Also didn't large portions of the Northeast see snow back in October 2009? I know PA did and look at how that 2009-10 winter turned out.

[TWCJim]

Kinda chilly this morning where I am. It's 43 right now in Astoria according to TWC, 47 in Long Beach 

[TWCToday]

Ugh... Is the GFS ALREADY hinting the signs of ANOTHER October snow storm for the interior northeast? Last year when the GFS did that, looked what happened. This exactly what I didn't want. We probably won't get snow, but I definitely don't want the cold temps to arrive this fast. 

Note:
Map = Precip Type
Green = Rain
Red = Freezing Rain/Sleet/Mix
Blue = Snow

Those maps are extremely inaccurate this early in the season and its not uncommon for that model to spit out crazy stuff when you're easily a week out. I wouldn't hold your breath

[wxmediafan]

IF ONLY the GFS were accurate..

I can't wait for the first snow!

[TWCCraig]

IF ONLY the GFS were accurate..

I can't wait for the first snow!

The GFS is one of the more reliable models of them all, the GFS and ECMWF I think tie. I do believe that because the GFS is capable of producing much more longer range forecasts than the ECMWF, it may not be accurate in the long run, but it sure does give us a general trend. I never conclude that whatever happens more than a week out on the model run will exactly happen the way the model is depicting it. But overall, it's really beneficial that it gives us a general pattern.

[Mr. Rainman]

Agree, but GFS has also been overly wet this entire year. I can't wait for the first snow, either - looks like it might be coming Wednesday night!

[wxmediafan]

While I'll look at the GFS, I do not put much stock into it.  It failed me a lot this summer as I was learning how to forecast.  It is not good in drought-like situations.  I really like the ECMWF, and I don't mind the NAM either.

But you're right, TWCCraig, nothing after a week should be set in stone.

[phw115wvwx]

You all need to look at ensemble models way more.  The operational ECMWF, GFS, and NAM models are just one determination for each.  However, if you change the parameters slightly in each one, you will come up with a larger collection of solutions where more will prefer one forecast over the other.  Those operational models can be outliers at times, which I have seen happen a fair bit.

Overall, the ECMWF is the best long-term model.  The ECMWF can be too slow, but the GFS can be too fast and aggressive.  Lately, I find that going in the middle of them is the way to go.  The NAM is best for convection and the first 24 hours, but it quickly loses value when you go out a few days.  Lastly, there are times that you must go against all of the models, because they can't capture all the small-scale features in your area.  Personal experience and knowledge of local weather patterns simply can't be understated when forecasting.

[TWCJim]

I wonder what lfmusiclover is up to these days    It's been a long time since he's posted on this forum.

[Jonathon]

a prime example of how dumb people are becoming
Kids post Facebook pics of themselves burglarizing house | Technically Incorrect - CNET News

[jtmal0723]

The biggest highlight from SNL last night.....

[TWCJim]

While comparing current temps with my current hometown of Long Beach to my former hometown of Spokane, LB is significantly warmer than Spokane by 17 degrees. We're at 50 degrees right now, Spokane is at 33. Take that, Spokane!   

[toxictwister00]

Is Dish in the middle of another one of those stupid contract disputes? I've been seeing commercials on TV about certain TV shows/channels not being available on Dish. One of the most recent cases I saw was with our NBC affiliate and sister station MyAtlTV where they were saying subscribers to Dish should call in by midnight last night if they didn't want to lose those channels.

EDIT: Cable has it's problems, but I'm actually kinda glad I don't have Satellite service so I don't have to be bothered with that B.S every year.

[Zach]

Is Dish in the middle of another one of those stupid contract disputes? I've been seeing commercials on TV about certain TV shows/channels not being available on Dish. One of the most recent cases I saw was with our NBC affiliate and sister station MyAtlTV where they were saying subscribers to Dish should call in by midnight last night if they didn't want to lose those channels.

When disputes happen between providers and local channels, it's usually the owner of the channel that causes the blackout to occur, not the channel itself.