Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread

[TWCCraig]

If I can recall, TWC made a big point about March being below-average for the number of tornadoes because it was so cold, and the jet stream was a lot further south than it should have been.  But, they assured, this would all change by April - the jet stream would move north, April would be warm again, and severe weather would return.  Well guess what?  This didn't happen. 

Now we're at the end of April, and TWC is making a big point about April being below-average for number of tornadoes because it was so cold, and the jet stream was a lot further south than it should have been.  But, they assure, this will all change by May - the jet stream will move north, May will be above average in terms of temperatures for a lot of the country, and severe weather will ramp up.  So, is it just me, or is this deja vu?  I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but with this early-May cold blast, I am skeptical about a long-lasting warm-up anytime soon.

In the nation's heartland, yes, April was still pretty cool. But for the east coast and west coast this April is close to average compared to being below average in March. This May has the potential to be below average, but I don't think it will be that bad based on current guidance and may actually be above average. Who knows. 

[TWCCraig]

Fail by the NAM, Euro, and RGEM. Win for the GFS and GGEM regarding the amount of precip today (0.00"). California like weather here over the next week.

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. East wind around 8 mph.

Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind 9 to 14 mph.

Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. East wind 7 to 9 mph.

Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.

Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44.

Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 65.

[WeatherWitness]

Tell me this isn't a crazy forecast.   Guymon is in the Oklahoma panhandle.

[Localonthe8s]

Tell me this isn't a crazy forecast.   Guymon is in the Oklahoma panhandle.

Holy crap!

[Metarvo]

What is that, exactly?  One wonders if that would be considered a believable forecast were it posted in the weather forecasting contest we have coming up. 

[Mr. Rainman]

What is that, exactly?  One wonders if that would be considered a believable forecast were it posted in the weather forecasting contest we have coming up. 

Cold front, and a fairly strong one at that.

[phw115wvwx]

What is that, exactly?  One wonders if that would be considered a believable forecast were it posted in the weather forecasting contest we have coming up. 

February through May always feature wacky weather across the United States.  I have seen it go from snow and ice one week, warm with severe thunderstorms in the next week, and then back to cold and snow the following week all for the same place.  It's for this reason that I consider spring more as a transition period between winter and summer than an actual season.

[Metarvo]

They've just revised the long-range forecast for May.  Much of the country, particularly the eastern half, will be below average.  Déjà vu, anyone?

[TWCCraig]

They've just revised the long-range forecast for May.  Much of the country, particularly the eastern half, will be below average.  Déjà vu, anyone?

That's why I don't bother with 3rd party forecasts and stick to my own. The only other forecast source I trust is the NWS.

[TWCCraig]

Amazing to see some all-time monthly record low temps being set in the mid-west. Denver, CO; Shreveport, LA; and Galveston, TX all broke their all time coldest May temperatures on record that were originally set in the 1800's. Breaking a daily record low with a station that has data back to the 1800's is hard, but to break all-time monthly record lows is wow! 

[WeatherWitness]

Amazing to see some all-time monthly record low temps being set in the mid-west. Denver, CO; Shreveport, LA; and Galveston, TX all broke their all time coldest May temperatures on record that were originally set in the 1800's. Breaking a daily record low with a station that has data back to the 1800's is hard, but to break all-time monthly record lows is wow! 

Yeah, this cold blast has really been something.  At OKC, we set a daily record low of 37 degrees (old record was 38), with the high for the day only reaching 48 degrees.  So this brings us to what, like 5 record lows set during spring so far?  Crazy.

[phw115wvwx]

You can blame all these record lows on a cut off low.  This closed upper level low has been drifting over the Great Plains for the past several days.  Since low height aloft equate to lower average temperatures in that area of the atmosphere, it's no wonder that you've had these records.  Now, this same low could bring 1-3" of rain with higher amounts possible along the eastern side of the Blue Ridge to cause some flooding issues.

[TWCCraig]

Warmest temperature today in the country was not in Texas, not in Florida, nor Arizona, California, or any southern states, but in Yakima, WA with a temp of 92.

[WeatherWitness]

It's amazing what a difference only a couple of weeks makes when you talk about weather (sometimes even less ).  The Plains go from unseasonably cold weather, breaking record lows, the first few days of May, to unseasonably hot weather, likely breaking record highs, just two weeks later.  Today's highs will be in the mid-90s across parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota!  I think we're talking about our first major heat wave of the year.

Meanwhile, the eastern United States, which has seen relatively warm temperatures for the past several weeks, has been rather chilly recently.  It's all about the jet stream.  That ridge over the central U.S. is really causing those temperatures to rise while the trough in the east is ushering in some cooler air.

[phw115wvwx]

My area has set new record low temperatures for the past two days, which is rather rare to witness lately.  Here's my record event report that I issued this morning at work.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
828 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...MORE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE TODAY AT ROANOKE VIRGINIA IS 35 DEGREES...WHICH
SETS A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS
37 DEGREES FROM 1996.

ALSO...THE LOW TEMPERATURE TODAY AT DANVILLE VIRGINIA IS 36
DEGREES...WHICH SETS A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE
OLD RECORD WAS 38 DEGREES FROM 2007.

FINALLY...THE LOW TEMPERATURE TODAY AT BLACKSBURG VIRGINIA IS 31
DEGREES...WHICH TIES THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE FROM
1996.

PW