Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread

[TWCCraig]

Thought I should start a thread. Gives this little subforum life. Feel free to discuss anything, your local weather complaints, to weather pattern discussion etc. 

The majority of us are wondering where is spring? It really hasn't been here for most. I know Mac in Grand Forks is really hoping for some warmer weather. Luckily he'll get some starting this Friday.  Anyway, good news going into the long range. One of the reasons why we've been so cold is because of where the all this cold air is coming from, Canada. H5 heights have been pretty low in the Hudson Bay area and north. This time last year, southern Canada was pretty thawed out. Not so much this year. With decent snow pack in Canada and a favorable cool pattern there, it has been an unrelentless supply of cold air. Places in the North Central US have temp departures about -10°F to -15°F. Here's the good news. Models have been signaling for a rise in heights and warm up over the northern central plains extending into Canada. This should begin the thawing out of Canada and ultimately diminishing our supply of cold air.



While the warmer temps in Canada eat away our cold air supply, the CFSv2 weeklies have been signaling a warm up, and possibly a major warm up, the first two weeks of May. It starts off warm in the northeast and then spreads south and west into the mid west. A Quebec ridge builds up then spreads west for the first two weeks of May. Having an ideal ridge to our north is a good spot for a potential heat wave. Anymore north and east the ridge and we could be talking some back door cold fronts.









With the diminishing cold air supply heading into May, I think we'll start seeing above average monthly departures again.

[phw115wvwx]

Last year, we had a major La Niña event along with other factors that gave us one of the warmest starts to any year in recent history.  We were actually due for a correction, and we got it this year with all the cold and ice to the north.  We actually remained neutral with the ENSO cycle this past winter, but the Arctic Oscillation going negative a lot really sparked this long cold spell.  The models generally do better with warm surges rather than cold surges based on what fellow forecasters have told me at work, so I would have some hope with this solution.

[Mr. Rainman]

Best news I've heard all year. Our latest forecasts puts our high in Grand Forks at a resounding 62 by next Sunday, which is average for this time of year. The downside is that the rapid thaw will also allow for the Red River to start flooding like crazy. Fargo is going to be in for a rough year due to flooding. Luckily, Grand Forks was smart and built a wall.   

[WeatherWitness]

Indeed this spring has been very strange, especially here in Oklahoma.  These weekly cold blasts have been too much for me, but on the contrary, all this rain is definitely a good thing.  We're picking up 2 to 3 inches with every weekly system that has been moving through here; definitely good for relieving the drought.

I just wonder what summer will bring.  Will we be suffering through more relentless triple-digit heat and be back in a drought, or will it be milder and wetter like spring has been?

[toxictwister00]

I sure would love it if this Summer was like it was back in 2005 mainly to be reassurance that we can manage to keep our drought-free status going through the remainder of the year.

Now of course a lot of the rain we got that year was because of the record breaking hurricane season, we got hit by Arlene, Cindy, Dennis, and Katrina that year with June and July accumulating double digit rainfall. I've never seen that much rainfall during the Summer months since. I believe that Summer was fairly cool compared to normal. I don't recall a lot of 90s that year. A lot more 70s and 80s because of the hurricanes and garden variety thunderstorms.

Great write up Craig btw.

[TWCCraig]

Great write up Craig btw.

Thanks Tavores. 

[TWCCraig]

Next week looks hideous for us. Cutoff low to our west brings an endless supply of clouds, fog, and rain. Also the possibility of record cold in the midwest. It's going to feel like the Pacific Northwest around here next week. 

[TWCCraig]

Amazing cutoff low forms from a deep trough axis. Behind in, pooling in insanely cold air. GFS has snow as far south as Atlanta. They would beat their latest snowfall date of April 25 set in 1910 if it were to occur. Definitely a storm that needs to be watched.

[toxictwister00]

I never thought I would say this, but I hope it doesn't snow so I'm rooting for the GFS to be wrong. It's almost May, ain't nobody got time fo dat.

EDIT: I also hope this doesn't happen because I have to get my wisdom teeth pulled on the 3rd (next Friday)

[TWCCraig]

I never thought I would say this, but I hope it doesn't snow so I'm rooting for the GFS to be wrong. It's almost May, ain't nobody got time fo dat.

EDIT: I also hope this doesn't happen because I have to get my wisdom teeth pulled on the 3rd (next Friday)

I was supposed to get my wisdom tooth pulled this past Thursday, also some baby teeth. But there's too many teeth that are still very deep and are on the nerve. So I need to get surgery done in the hospital sometime this May so I can get invisaligns.

Anyway, The GFS caved the Euro for a more western solution. If any snow threat, it would be in the plains around Nebraska and Kansas. Good stretch of weather inbound for the northeast. Very dry as well. High pressure really dominates the area. Only 0.39" of precip on the 16-day GFS plot and none of that in the next week. If this pattern continues, I can see the parts of the northeast going into a severe drought that may plague this summer and make it a hot one. But 60's and 70's for next couple of weeks isn't bad. Nice warm up next weekend might gives us our second shot of 80 degree temps. Really worried that the drought situation might escalate.

[Mr. Rainman]

Craig, if you don't mind me asking, where do you get that tabulated data? I've been trying to find (or make) something like that for quite a while.

[TWCCraig]

Craig, if you don't mind me asking, where do you get that tabulated data? I've been trying to find (or make) something like that for quite a while.

Here: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/archive.shtml?text=KISP&run=2013042718

Here's another one which includes 925mb forecasts: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KISP

Just type in your airport code.

[Metarvo]

TWC is forecasting a spring/summer from May on with above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall for much of the U.S.  Come to think of it, I remember them forecasting that nearly every year for as long as I've been watching.  This April has been known for its cooler weather, though.  It's been noted that the severe weather side of things will be getting off to a slow start this May, and they were quick to point out that this has been the case for the last several Mays.

[WeatherWitness]

If I can recall, TWC made a big point about March being below-average for the number of tornadoes because it was so cold, and the jet stream was a lot further south than it should have been.  But, they assured, this would all change by April - the jet stream would move north, April would be warm again, and severe weather would return.  Well guess what?  This didn't happen. 

Now we're at the end of April, and TWC is making a big point about April being below-average for number of tornadoes because it was so cold, and the jet stream was a lot further south than it should have been.  But, they assure, this will all change by May - the jet stream will move north, May will be above average in terms of temperatures for a lot of the country, and severe weather will ramp up.  So, is it just me, or is this deja vu?  I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but with this early-May cold blast, I am skeptical about a long-lasting warm-up anytime soon.

[Metarvo]

That makes sense.  They're recycling their forecasts.  I guess it's another way of going green.    With yet another cold front coming even for me this week, it does seem a little repetitive.

They're actually bothering to report Tor:Con's of 3 for various midwestern locales.  I can tell they want some severe weather to forecast/cover, but they're not getting much.  During that last storm chase video I saw, it sounded almost like the chasers were disappointed at the dissipation of the storms.