For this topic, I think we can stick with just dealing with the models and analysis of the upcoming threat. Once it materializes, another topic in the Severe Weather board can be made for the actual day with the warnings, reports, and final analysis pieces if desired.
Trevor, I attached the newest GFS run below to match your time of the sounding. Note the upper-level trough turning to more of a neutral tilt (oriented north-south) that will slowly turn toward a negative tilt (oriented from northwest to southeast). Negative tilt upper-level troughs are never good, and especially for spring!
